Discussion in 'Stocks' started by vanzandt, Oct 10, 2018.

  1. vanzandt


    St Joes Company. (nyse:JOE)
    The old paper company.
    These guys are (pretty sure) the largest land owner and developer in Fl.
    Golf courses, marinas, timber, residential, commercial, strip centers... everything.
    And pretty much everything they own.... lays right at ground zero for Hurricane Michael's projected landfall.
    That whole area of FL is where they got smart and morphed from paper mills to property developers.

    Might be a good short (short term) if you can get in near $16 pre-market.
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2018
    fan27 likes this.
  2. maxinger


    Nice Support turned Resistance line at $17.
    around 24 sept, there was nice reversal pattern (long blue candle, then doji, then long red candle).
    vanzandt likes this.
  3. vanzandt


    Yeah it looks like they pretty much trade in concert with the XHB and XLB.
    10% short interest, no dividend (thats interesting), and only $.71 in FCF/share.
    Not a lot of debt, and book value is about $8.50... There's only 52% institutional ownership so that might taper a wholesale dump today. Who'd want to own this thing anyway with no divy? 8X sales. Pricey really.
    I'm sure they're well insured, but either way, this one's gonna leave a mark.
    $15.88 on the bid. That won't stand after 7AM EST.
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2018
  4. destriero


    Holy fvck. @vanzandt just broke the Seventh Seal. He posted a trade that was exploitable and marginally profitable. I can't believe it. This has to mean the End is near.
  5. piezoe


    typically high value pine timber to be milled into dimensional lumber is destroyed by a direct hit from this kind of storm. It may still be good for pulpwood after, but that depends largely on access to a mill that will take it. And the price will be very low because of over supply. A company this large is probably self-insured I would guess. The stress causes delaminations and cracks in pine. Some hardwood may still be worth milling afterward. There were major losses after Katrina in Southern Mississippi where timber is a major product. Perhaps lumber prices will rise proportionally in coming months because of increasing demand and reduced supply. There will be an increase in regional demand for building materials, chainsaws, generators etc. After Katrina I was able to order chainsaws from New Jersey. There were practically none available closer. This is a very major hurricane -- Camille like in its intensity, total energy may be quite similar to Katrina but this is more focused, covering not as wide an area as Katrina (it would appear). Everything directly in its path will be either a total loss or severely damaged for a 100 miles or so inland, judging from the recent impact of Katrina. Any developed areas near the coast that are also near the eye, about 20 to 25 miles either side of the eye, will simply be gone after the storm passes. Anyone remaining in that zone has a very high probability of being killed . I had a friend who stayed in bay St. Louis during Katrina. Her body was found in a live oak a week later. The town itself no longer existed. (It's been rebuilt).
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2018
    vanzandt likes this.