Discussion in 'Journals' started by Joe Doaks, Mar 3, 2011.
i'm short is THIS the top?
I predict the NQ close higher today.
A purely quantitative prediction, and untradeable. Name your number.
My observation: the longer it takes on "gap and go" days (with certain characteristics) to trade up to a few multiples of the early morning's move, the more likely the market will continue trending directly into the close.
If it gets there before noon, probably there will be a retrace later in the day. If it behaves like today, straight through the close give or take.
Barring a volume blow off where the second push to new highs is on lower vol than the previous.
Very good. But finding those "certain characteristics" is a bitch. But don't hold past the close. It's a sucker play.
Is this just a plano guess?
Oh. Thanks. Never seen any evidence of that here before. Satire is my game.
Ah, there are ways to identify in the first 10-15 min if there is some probability of those certain characteristics.
Good call on not holding past the close -- never tried.
Someone I've been looking into is Mark Fisher (and I never follow any person's "method", but something about what he does makes sense to me). One potential overnight long occurs when price trades down a certain extent early then rapidly rallies to significant highs late in the day, trapping shorts. Never framed things that way myself, but it's worth studying to me.
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