Jobs- Every Month, They're Lying

Every Month, They're Lying
By Jeffrey Folks
October 09, 2010

Figures for the last significant jobs report before the November election are a major embarrassment for the administration. On October 8, the labor department reported a decline of 95,000 workers, a figure much worse than economists had estimated. This decline in jobs is inescapable proof of the failure of the President's economic policies.

As if the September employment numbers were it not bad enough, the figures for August were revised downward by 57,000. And on top of this, the preliminary annual revision of employment showed a further drop of 366,000 jobs. With all of these downward revisions, one has to wonder whom to trust. How far will the September numbers be revised downward in the days just after the November election? How much further will the annual figures be revised downward when the final report is issued in February 2011?

The dismal figures just reported are far from being a one-month or six-month anomaly.

For 14 straight months now the unemployment rate has been above 9.5%. Those are 14 months in which Obama's fiscal policies have had an opportunity to turn things around. In fact those 14 months followed directly upon the President's $878 billion stimulus package, which the President promised would keep unemployment below 8%. And yet, since Obama's inauguration the unemployment rate has risen by 26%, and most economists project that the rate of unemployment will continue to rise well into 2011.

Moreover, the Labor Department numbers are not telling the whole story. According to Paul Godek, an economist with Compass Lexecon, employment relative to historic job growth is 10% below trendline, an all-time low on this important measure of growth. Compare today's figures with those of 1960, when employment was 6% above trendline, or in 1999 when they were even higher, thanks to the welfare reforms and spending discipline of a Republican Congress. With job growth at 10% below trendline, employment figures are not going to improve anytime soon.

The only "silver lining," as the President might say, is that the September unemployment rate did not budge. It held steady at 9.6%, but even a cursory examination of the Labor Department report reveals that this was because an ever larger number of workers have simply given up hope. These discouraged workers are not included in the headline unemployment number, but they are represented in U6, a figure that reflects unemployment and underemployment and that now stands at 17.1%, up .4% in just one month. What this figure reveals, in other words, is that a growing number of workers are so demoralized that they've stopped looking for work entirely.

That fact is even more frightening than the top-line unemployment figure of 9.6%. It tells us that millions of workers have given up on this economy. Millions of workers, who might otherwise be proud and valued contributors to the nation's economy, are simply sitting at home, skipping mortgage payments and relying on food stamps and other forms of government aid just to get by. The President likes to pretend that big business has failed these workers. He likes to lay the blame on banks that supposedly are refusing to make loans to small businesses. He blames the insurance companies, mortgage brokers, oil companies, hedge funds, and just about every other part of the private sector. What he refuses to do is to look at the effect of his own policies.

Does Obama really expect American energy companies to be out there hiring hundreds of thousands of workers when the President himself has placed the entire Gulf of Mexico under a deep-water drilling ban? Does the President believe that health insurance companies will be expanding their operations when Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services, is out there bashing them for rate increases and demanding that they operate at a loss? Does he think that the financial reform bill recently put into effect is going to increase the number of jobs in the financial sector when it specifically strips the major banks of some of their most lucrative profit opportunities?

Month after month now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported weak job numbers -- numbers that U.S. News & World Report has now begun to call "bogus." And yet even as the job market has weakened, the President has pressed ahead with his destructive program of regulation, nationalization, and increased taxation. His top economic advisers, Larry Summers and Christina Romer among them, have begun to abandon the sinking ship. Presumably none of them really want to take the fall for an economy that has gone nowhere but down in two years and that shows no sign of a strong recovery.

Soon it will be Mr. Obama, sitting alone in the Oval Office, dreaming up more schemes for regulation and taxation. Looking out the window across the White House lawn, it might appear that little has changed. But tens of millions of Americans are now without work, a fact that the President apparently fails to recognize. He presses on with environmental regulation, restrictions on business and industry, and huge tax increases on small businesses and on investors. The First Lady flies off on extravagant resort vacations, with her retinue of sixty, while the President spends week after week golfing or exercising his tongue before friendly college audiences.

Meanwhile over 17% of Americans are unemployed or underemployed, and that figure increases every month. What is the President going to do about it? Raising taxes on "the rich," as he plans to do in January, will only make matters worse. Higher taxes on capital gains and dividends will simply drain capital from the private sector. Death taxes will force tens of thousands of small businesses to close up shop. A continuation of high corporate tax rates, the second-highest among developing nations, will only keep American businesses at a disadvantage to foreign competitors. Increased regulation on the part of the EPA, the FTC, the FCC, the Justice Department, and other government agencies simply puts more pressure on American companies. And the president's solution to these problems of taxation and regulation? More taxation and more regulation.

For American workers, the disheartening September employment jobs report and those that preceded it are more than enough reason to vote the Democrats out in November. But even if Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress, we will still have a very irresponsible president in the White House. Are his ruinous economic policies a justification for impeachment? That is a question that the American public needs to start asking itself.

 

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"It's official: The Great Recession that started in late 2007 is over, the eggheads who crunch numbers at the National Bureau of Economic Research say.

In fact, it ended in June of last year, they insist.

Tell that to the millions of Americans still looking for work, losing their homes and sinking into poverty in record numbers."

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/money/20...l#ixzz11rvaKZio

 

Obama: “I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on earth.”

 

"In March 2004, when Barack Obama was a candidate for the U.S. Senate in the Illinois Democratic primary, he excoriated President George W. Bush for creating a "jobless recovery." The month he said that, 334,000 new jobs were created—none of them temporary Census ones—and unemployment was 5.8%.

That was then. Now the unemployment rate is 9.6%, and tomorrow's jobs report is unlikely to be much better.

Many other Democrats piled on Mr. Bush at the time. "Mr. President, where are the jobs?" Rep. Nancy Pelosi asked on CNN in October 2003. "The American people will not settle for—nor should the <del>Republicans</del> Democrats celebrate—a jobless recovery." That month saw 203,000 new jobs and 6% unemployment. Her party would kill for such a rate today."

 

Considering Bush added 0 (zero) new private sector jobs over eight years, I won't get too excited about Obama turning out to be not only figuratively but literally correct.