Joblessness Reaches 10% in Indiana; Oregon, Washington, West Virginia Jump

So, 10% is reality in about 15 states. I've said a national rate of 13% or higher by next year (summertime) will not surprise me in the least based on current trends in jobless claims on a monthly basis, and the fact that many of the layoff announcements have just been made in the last three months.

Joblessness Reaches 10% in Indiana; Oregon, Washington, West Virginia Jump

By Shobhana Chandra

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aW1iNrDbZ1iI&refer=home

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Indiana in March joined seven other U.S. states with a jobless rate of at least 10 percent, and unemployment surged in Oregon, Washington and West Virginia as the worst employment slump in the postwar era rippled through the economy.

Indiana’s jobless rate jumped to 10 percent last month from 9.4 percent in February, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Michigan, with 12.6 percent, remained the state with the highest unemployment rate, followed by Oregon at 12.1 percent. The rate in California rose to 11.2 percent from 10.6 percent.

“There is a bad news story in just about every part of the country right now,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Economists at Wachovia and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch are among those predicting the rate nationally, currently at a 25-year high of 8.5 percent, will also reach 10 percent. The need to cut costs and boost profits means payrolls will keep dropping even as the economy begins to recover from the recession.

Forty-six states registered increases in the unemployment rate in March from the prior month, three states had no change, while North Dakota and the District of Columbia posted a drop, the Labor Department said.

Oregon Jumps

Unemployment in Oregon saw the biggest jump for the month, climbing 1.4 percentage points from February’s 10.7 percent. Joblessness rose by 0.9 percentage point in Washington, to 9.2 percent, and in West Virginia, where it reached 6.9 percent, Labor said.

The Northwest “is getting the double whammy from the slumps in trade and aerospace,” said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. “We may be seeing the impact from the collapse in trade along the whole west coast.”

Payroll employment in March decreased in 48 states and the District of Columbia. California led with a loss of 62,100 jobs, followed by Florida with 51,900 workers dismissed. Texas, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio rounded out the six states with the biggest loss of jobs.

“Economic weakness is greatest in parts of the country with the most direct links to the housing boom and bust,” Wachovia’s Vitner said. “Also, those with the greatest concentration in manufacturing” are hurting, he said.

RV Collapse

A “collapse” in production of recreational vehicles in the area of Elkhart, Indiana, combined with links to the auto industry have contributed to the surge in unemployment in the state, said Marc Lotter, communications director for the Indiana Department of Workforce Development.

“Indiana has one of the highest percentages of manufacturing jobs in the nation,” Lotter said. President Barack Obama visited Elkhart in February to call attention to the region’s plight when he was seeking support for his economic stimulus plan.

A factory slump also hurt Oregon, said David Cooke, an economist at the state’s employment department. In addition, Oregon residents that lost their jobs in neighboring California have returned to their home state seeking work, causing the labor force to bulge and having a “substantial effect” on the jump in joblessness, he said.

Other states with unemployment of at least 10 percent in March were South Carolina at 11.4 percent, North Carolina at 10.8 percent, Rhode Island at 10.5 percent and Nevada at 10.4 percent, figures showed today.

Job Losses

The economy has lost about 5.1 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Payrolls fell by 663,000 in March and the jobless rate jumped to the highest level since 1983. This month, Labor Department figures showed the total number of people collecting unemployment benefits climbed to a record 6.02 million in the week ended April 4.

Finding work again is getting harder because expertise isn’t necessarily transferable from industry to industry, said Craig Hewitt of Atlanta, who lost a management job in October with HSBC Holdings Plc’s auto-finance unit after six years.

“Employers who are out there have become very specific in what they are looking for,” said Hewitt, 43, who hasn’t landed a single interview after six months of searching for a job and applying for about 40 positions. “It is challenging for all those who have been in financial services as a career as that business has been decimated.”

Leaving Journalism

Fewer job postings are eroding advertising revenue at newspapers, causing firings and prompting some journalists to consider other lines of work. Robert Taylor, a feature writer for the Contra Costa Times in Walnut Creek, California, lost his job in July after eight years.

Taylor, who also worked at the Oakland Tribune for 25 years before that, said he is a month away from finishing classes for a marketing certificate program at San Francisco State University. He has rewritten his resume numerous times, applied for at least 15 jobs, and is still searching daily for public relations or marketing positions.

“I’ve never been unemployed for so long in my life,” said Taylor. “When I was laid off I thought I’d certainly have another job by year-end. Now I doubt I’ll ever work for a newspaper again.”

 

Michigan is lucky its unemployment is only 12.6%... it should be 30% when compared to other states given how shitty its economy is and its total reliance on the auto.

 

people don't need to find jobs for the unemployment rate to go down. after a few months the "unemploymenr rate" simply doesn't count you anymore. for example,

there are 1000 people and 100 of them lost their jobs. at this point, the unemployment rate is

100/1000 = 10%

after 6 months, these 100 people still haven't found jobs, but they are no longer counted. the new unemployment rate is

0/900 = 0%

so unless firms continue to lay off people at a faster rate than they did in the past, the unemployment rate will always improve.

 

At this juncture, the U.S. economy has to produce 142,000 jobs per month in order for the employment rate to remain 'static.'

if anything less than that is produced, the unemployment rate will continue to rise. If anything more than that is produced, the unemployment rate will decline.

If there is continuing net job losses of any amount, let alone the 500k to 700k we've seen, the unemployment rate will rocket higher.

I have no idea on what information you are basing your statement.

 

you didn't know that the unemployment numbers are fudged to make ait appear lower than it actually is?

here's a link that describes it. if you don't trust this link then google it yourself.

http://www.davemanuel.com/2009/03/06/the-real-unemployment-rate-is-much-worse-than-81/

 

here's another good description

http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/a-visual-guide-to-the-financial-crisis-unemployment-rates/