The lack of continued hiring. You probably didn't look too closely to the charts I posted. You probably don't realize that the line you're touting as "going counter to what I'm arguing" is cumulative job gains. Look closer.
This crap on jobless claims being low is nonsense. The long term chronically unemployed cannot apply for these claims. They have given up looking. They are one reason the labor participation rate is at a 36 year low. Anyone who tries to spin this and make first time claims look like it's good is totally lost.
That has been true the entire time (of the recession), thus the falling jobless claims reflect an actual improvement.
Improvement in what? All it means is more older people digging into their 401K plans or IRA's early ... Only thing that appears to be an improvement is unemployment rate which everyone knows is misleading.
I don't see that as improvement. Sure, a graph may show it. But we've not had such a low labor participation rate since 1978. Why are older folks working at Wal-Mart or a Hallmark store? To supplement their Social Security since they've drawn down their IRA's or 401K's. But many have given up entirely. How many employed people are underemployed?
Re the LFPR, people are not just "giving up" (though how they're feeding themselves when their benefits have been cut is a mystery) but many are retiring before 64. Therefore they are still part of the labor force, but not participating. Reps need to stop shrieking about this, it is a long term demographic trend that will continue for decades--even immigration won't fix it, since every immigrant is added to both sides of the ratio. If they're working at Wal-Mart, then they are not lowering the LFPR.