Keeping it simple: From Krugman,Constant-demography Employment For my calculation, Iâve divided the population into three age groups, 16-24, 25-54, and 55 plus, for which employment-population ratios are available in the BLS databases. (Scroll down and use the one-screen data search). Iâve then taken a weighted average of these ratios, where the weights are the 2007 shares of each group in the civilian noninstitutional population. And hereâs what you get: --- --- Source Auto sales lead unemployment. This shouldn't be new and it suggests unemployment will be in the 7% range next year. If the republicans ever do decide to stop stalling on a jobs bill, then UE would be in the 6% range barring a blowup in China or Europe. ---- For some humor: It appears the republican mind has a new dimension to their dementia : Job Truthers