Job numbers were TWICE as good as expected? Are they fake? "The 528,000 jobs added were more than double the expectations of many seasoned analysts including at Goldman Sachs, where economists had estimated nonfarm payrolls to rise by 225,000 in July." I ask because canada had job numbers too and there's were worse then expected. Could the usa job numbers have been skewed and misrepresentative due to seasonal workers and part time workers pumping up the raw job figures to make it appear better then expected? Now the market reaction was fascinating. First the market sold off huge pre-mkt when the numbers hit the tape. Then at the open the buy the dippers swooped in causing a squeezing. An hour later it sold off and almost looked like a bull trap but then flipped to overdrive again. If the numbers are real then the market should have continued to sell off because it's bad for indexes since the Fed can freely raise interest rates (because the fear of hurting employment growth is gone). But the market closed towards the high of day. Which leads me to think that the market is seeing thru the possibility that (back to my topic) that the job numbers are indeed bullshit. And if so we should indeed be buying the QQQ's and SPY since the fed may peddle softer raising interest rates. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/5/what-the-blowout-us-jobs-numbers-actually-mean
everyone and their dog is saying CPI will come in cooler due to the precipitous dunk on oil prices at the pump. Now you have to be a shrink to figure this mad market - but I would think if the number is indeed cool then the market will BOUNCE big.....and then suck them all in. Because fundamentally macro wise we are heading into a bitch of recession. That's the archie bunker in me talking.
I posted that same video in a different thread a couple weeks ago. Are we kindred spirits, or are you just hanging on my coattails?
Now they want the Fed to hike rates another .75 to force job numbers lower. If CPI is lower, then Fed hikes rates .5 in September. Gun sales are down, food and rent come first.
Things do not work, nor do they are, they way that people expect & the only thing that is not fake, is everything except, expectations.
Job numbers were TWICE as good as expected? Are they fake? -They are not necessarily fake but highly "customizable". If you really want to see how many people are employed are in the non-farm sectors, there is a very good measure of that that's called ADP National Employment Report. It's published two days before the non-farm payroll and it records very accurately how many people are employed in the private sector because it's based on the payrolls processed by the ADP Payroll Service which is used by 99% of the private sector so by theory the NFP number should be very close to this ADP number since both measures how many peope are employed in the private non-agricultural sector. The only difference between the ADP number and the non-farm payroll number is that the non-farm payroll number includes people that are employed by the government. Somehow these employees are also considered to be employed by the non-agricultural sectors. And yet there is always huge discrepancy between the NFP number and the ADP number. With the only difference between them being from the government sector employment, then you can easily see the "customization" that can be done in that sector's employment data.
The numbers are only as accurate as the formula used to calculate said numbers, the importance of which is using the same formula from year to year. ADP is probably more accurate because it is the largest payroll processing company in the US. Certainly, it won't factor in those millions of mom and pop businesses that don't use ADP for payroll.
They are not fake, but that does not necessarily mean they are accurate. They will be revised twice in the next two months as better data comes in, then we will see how accurate they really were. For a really good explanation of job number accuracy see: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/jobs-report-growth-unemployment/