You're looking at differences, right? If we want to know how strong the economy we need to look at unemployment as a percent of total workforce. The economy is strong, very strong! We are very close to full employment. At full employment, by definition, unemployment numbers can only go one way! Of course we changed the way we calculated unemployment between WWII and now. The record low unemployment was during WWII. If we were to use the old method of computing unemployment, today's unemployment would be somewhat higher. That said, the current unemployment is low, and we are approaching full employment! The Biden economy is en fuego. This is consistent with what the MMT economists have been telling us. Democrats are far better stewards of the economy because they have at least some understanding of it. Republicans haven't a clue. It's obvious they have no understanding of deficits because they constantly harp on the "National Debt" being way to big, which is like saying the private sector's cumulative savings is too large -- which of course it can be. But they think it is "debt", which is what we call it but not what it is! Then thinking deficits are debt, they turn right around and run huge deficits, usually as an unwitting consequence of their monstrous tax cuts delivered to the wealthy. Deficits goose the economy of course because they have their origin in government spending into the private sector.. Democrats arrive at them through transfer payments and spending on investments like infrastructure and education.. Apparently some democrats have an understanding of the true nature of deficits and why they are essential. The Republicans, on the other hand, run the government as though it were a clown car. Thank god the government has huge inertia and there are many competent agency employees who can keep things running no matter what craziness emerges from the House and Senate Republicans.
But why would everyone and their uncle be short today? What would drive that type of sentiment and mass behavior?
You're going to confuse overly bearish day traders and media types with this kind of thinking . 'Good news is bad' is an unsustainable market narrative ( see October 2022 ). Might create a whippy market short term but a good chunk of the broader market is oversold based on the massive recession outlook that never occurred. It can remain oversold or ... .
Lol. I have a friend who is a federal bureaucrat (IG’s office for an agency), but will quit soon. He says the waste, fraud/abuse, and sheer accumulated dead wood is far beyond the worst you could imagine, and the experience made him want to cut 80% of government spending.
I am going to reply to my own question. Supposedly people have been led to believe by the news outlets that a strong job market hurts the fight against inflation and bad for the stock market, but it's actually not bad for the stock market. Without strong employment in the private sector people just collect government checks. I think it's better for the stock market for more people to contribute to real GDP and the economy and to 401ks. The money printer is what is inflationary.
Which is of course true. In addition, recent numbers suggest a chunk of a recent inflation is being caused by rising interest rates ironically. The central banks are overdoing their 'cure' again. The one caveat here is defining what is the "market". If one takes a US-centric approach on indexes, well that's heavily weighted in IT giants that already rallied and aren't cheap. I have no exposure to that area by design I think the money is to be made elsewhere on a risk/reward basis.
You overlooked the word between the commas. Obviously not everyone was short. I wasn't. I'm no hero, I wait for the dust to settle. And some certainly did not stay short for very long. Markets move because they have to. Stops hit lead to more stops being hit, rinse, repeat. Both directions.