What a complete and utter scam the government is running. They've actually temporarily spun an underestimated (and highly manipulated) job loss number of 539k into a 'positive' as of this morning. Watch this number be revised for the worse next month. The second wave of foreclosures and job losses are just now hitting, and will accelerate through at least November. If we're at 9% now, and we see another 4 million jobs lost just this year (and we will), good luck to all the bulls. As of 10:30 am est, it would appear the equity markets are deeply skeptical of anything the government reports, including this morning's employment report.
As you know I'm probably just a bit less bearish on the economy than you. But I'm also a trader who makes use of historical precedence. What was the employment situation like from the early 70's through early 80's? Pretty friggin' bleak. How did stocks handle it? Big breaks AND big rallies. The psychology of trading is no different than any other handicapped "bet." The market has known for half a year that 9% unemployment is a card showing face up on the table for every bettor to see. Hence a HUGE sell off in market valuations adjusting for the expectation of recession. It would be like saying "how can the Pats cover w/o Brady at QB"? Well the point spread already reflects that he's out of the line-up. Now what? The onus the past several weeks hasn't been so much on the bulls for conditions to improve but on the bears to prove that conditions will implode, i.e. 11% unemployment or something of that sort. Maybe it will maybe it won't. I've been fooled before.....
Unless of course he goes down in the 2nd minute of the first game of the season...then the line didn't reflect that. I get ya point... Man there were some pissed of FFL coaches last year...taking brady in the top ten...peace
He's RE guy. Have you ever met a RE guy who wasn't the last to know? The vast majority of properties I've accumulated over the years have been from developers who at the end of a cycle were greatly overextended. Generally speaking, They're the last ones out of a dead market and the last ones back in a reemerging live RE market. It's the nature of their business.
Great article speaking to exactly the issue I am. These numbers are more fake than the Clinton's professed love for each other. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/real-memo-out-of-bureau-of-lies-and.html
ByLo, was that you that made a post last July about the shitstorm that was coming? The only place I could find similar comments were on Jim Sinclair's website and the National Bank of Scotland at the time. I could not remember if it was you or someone else.
I haven't been as bearish as I am now since edit - June of last year. Anyone who doesn't take profits on any trade they made at anywhere near the March lows is simply gambling, unless the specific circumstances are exceptional. The equity markets may be now more overvalued on a fundamental basis at any time since 1999.
Totally agree. It amazing how they shrugged off the priors revision down from -663k to -699K. anyone feel like wagering a guess that NEXT month... the priors revision will be at least 50k more than the -539k figure? but its not that it matters... it just a few consumers that contribute to the growth of the economy.