I think it's late now, yes, but as long as the masses keep piling in, there could still be further to go. But there were suggestions about both Japan and China being good potential investment opportunities many months ago, when it wasn't as late. Basically, it's just common sense to to regularly monitor the 10-12 major types of assets yourself (US stocks and bonds, REITS, precious metals, other commodities, foreign stocks and bonds, major currencies, etc.) to try to catch onto the opportunities without anyone having to point you there. But then if there is a compelling story that catches on, that's in your favor.
China may be a good long term investment, but we're talking about very long term. Plus you would have to hold through the bubble burst. Japan, well I dunno, I just feel they are very developed now and I do not see any explosive growth, except for maybe AI and robotics. My point is that all this talk about China being the all time great investment is a bunch of BS. The time to invest was like 5 years ago, when everyone thought China was going nowhere. Kinda like now, when executives from the big banks come on CNBC and say how Russia is in a real bad position and going into a depression. Thats why they are all dying to get a piece of it and they can't because the Russian government is not giving foreigners access. Does anyone here even know the gains you could have made just by trading Russian oil and energy stocks during the last few years? Not one of the big houses has ever mentioned it. Until the big money has a chance to jump into Russia's stock market, real estate, etc.., they will prevent the masses from getting a piece.
The Nikkei low was in April and you would have been done very well to have entered long at the end of May. Yet even delaying until July / August left a 20% gain into September / October. To me that's a fine short-term opportunity. Without any real confidence in whether Japan is finally resolving their problems, or has good long-term growth potential, those gains are still yours. All that was needed was a reason to have look at the Nikkei, and to have seen that it looked promising.
Retracements are a great trading strategy aren't they? But still 20%? I'm talking about 1000%+ because thats what the first wave made in China and Russia. Talking about explosive growth. My father who traded Russian stockmarket for 5+ years tells me that the US stock market is a joke to him. It's too slow, not volatile. He says, he and friend sometimes mess around just for fun with US equities on Datek after they get a little drunk.
Here's one for you: Chongqing Iron +374% from 2003 low +549% from 2002 low +1312% from 2001 low +1953% from 1999 low
That's nothing, my father's percentage return can beat up your father's percentage's return. Not to mention, my shoes are faster than your's
But those kinds of gains are always possible for the individual stock picker in any economy. You are accepting all the risk of that one name, without the diversification that comes from an index.
Hehe, my dad barely trades anymore because he is opening businesses left and right now. He barely has time, still loves it but it's time to move on. Im sure he did fine, because the "Putin tanking the market" is a bunch of BS. No wonder most traders here believe it. He has been telling me for the last 4-5 months that the Russian market is in a bubble and it's gonna sell off before future serious advancement. It's almost a requirement for developing nations He has been waiting for it and I think I might start picking up a few Russian stocks here and there for longer hold times. The news bit is just an excuse.