I should be clear ... I close all my trades by 4:15 every day. I take the same position to bed every night. I am long the dollar -- with zero leverage -- by default. Most traders would call that being "flat" and I have no quibble with that characterization. Given the capital I have at my disposal, once I take on significant leverage I must, if I am prudent, trade short term. I only hold positions longer than 15 minutes if they are "in the money". Since both Farber and Rogers are pontificating about the coming weeks, months and years I can not trade off their comments. Although my views are in line with Rogers to my way of thinking he has zero -- maybe less than zero -- credibility. A few years ago he preached being long every commodity imaginable -- grains, gold, copper, crude, bird dung -- you name it and he said he was long it. When asked about these positions when many of them were down 60 and 70% -- positions he said he never closed out -- his reply was that these were corrections in a commodities bull market. Anyone who believes that holding positions through declines of that magnitude makes sense is either a charlatan or a freakin' nut. Yeah, I know he was Soros' partner, I know he made big, big money. But I am talking about now ... not then. Farber is better -- much better. That said, these guys are all in the business of making grandiose statements that the media will promote as actual news. Although I concede that both are very knowledgeable men, I do not believe their interests are close enough aligned with mine to take any of them seriously. They choose to be talking heads. And I choose to regard them that way. I don't need Mark or Jim or Billy Bob to tell me that spiking the deficit through the roof and simultaneously doubling the size of the Fed's balance sheet is bad for the dollar. Since no one can truly help me interpret the short term and only an idiot would miss the longer term implications of US policy I do not value their opinion.
Gold dropped 50% twice during the seventies only to rise several 100%'s afterwards regardless of your entry point. (Ofcourse bigger gains where there for those who bought at the lowest.) Oil went 50% lower twice during the bull run of 2000-2008 to rise at least 200% higher to 150$ a barrel even if you bought at the top before it crashed to half of it's value. Sometimes big corrections are synonymous to even bigger future gains. Or not.
Apples to Apples ... let's get rid of the oranges. There has NEVER been a 70% decline in any commodity that anyone in this universe (except for Rogers) has refereed to as a correction. I believe crude went from $149 a barrel in the summer of '08 to a low of about $32 a few months later. Are you telling me that is a decline in a bull and not a full blown bear? And when gold collapsed in the seventies (and silver was absolutely KILLED) it was clearly a bear market.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see. If two people make 100% opposite predictions, at least one of them will turn out to be right. It's probably good to read some research for context, but none of it is bullet-proof. At the end of the day, it's only the price that pays.
or until all comes crashing down in your face. What you see today could be gone tomorrow. A bubble is great until it pops.
The facts now is, that during the Depression, commodities collapsed. There is no bet to make they will go up or down. Everything is a wild guess.
except he has other people time his trades. he himself admists he can't trade his way out of a paper bag. are you going to buy commodities when they are at all-time highs? or do you think rogers bought in a few years ago when he was saying the same thing before the recession hit? he'soing to sell out lock, stock and barrel at the peak, just like he did in real estate when he moved to singapore. carpetbaggers can't change their spots.
Jim Rogers is one of greatest investment minds of our time. Even if he is wrong on timing now and then. And who isn't? If you try to time the market, the odds are stacked against you.
Of course it could be gone tomorrow and for sure it will be gone "some" tomorrow. What could be more irrelevant?
Everyone times the market to at least a degree. Even those who average in over time start on a date. They just have to hope that date is not in early 1929.