In a depression, commodities are the WORST place to be. Farm prices, crude, and just about everything else besides gold became almost worthless. it is called DEflattion.
Mate, you just pull those bs comments out of thin air? What you just wrote proves virtually nothing. Miltons economic approach was not about "propping up banks", only. So, quoting his "approach" but being against government supporting banks is not a contradiction at all. You seemed to try really hard to get something on him. I dont even claim he never makes mistakes and gets sometimes too emotional. But mate, listen, this guy made a fortune trading and investing, has NOT lost that fortune, and still actively invests. That he still actively trades I know from first hand sources who take his OTC trades (I dont prove anything nor do I mention any sources, I can only say that those who try to prove the opposite by citing the Beeland dispute know nothing at all and are very ill informed). Its funny that when a guy is right most of the times he deserves respect. However, when he delivers his message in his own way that may be confrontational and not wrapped in silk cloth people suddenly try to get shit on him. It does not change the fact that this guy is overwhelmingly right in his calls/opinions and analyses. The way you criticize him here only lets me conclude the following possibilities 1) you took the whole time the opposite side of his trades and obviously must have gotten absolutely wiped out in the markets (and please dont cite his oil long calls, I know from confirmed sources he got out at the 130ish levels) 2) you are one of those poor dudes caught in some ivory tower and live in the past, instead of contributing where you think oil is gonna go next, what you think of coffee, what you think is the next debacle that leads to new lows. Instead you put your stinky finger into some past issues where you think someone got wound up in the heat of a discussion (by the way, pretty much every journalist/reporter/editor) who tried to get some dirt on JR ended up licking his wounds because their accusations have been proven completely baseless.
Well, you have it all figured out. You seem to know exactly how Rogers made his money and have sources that confirm his positions. Of course, you would never share them with the rest of us... talk about bs. And no you are dead wrong, there was one reporter that nailed Rogers right up to the wall. Rogers of course got angry. Not the sign of a confident man. Go on youtube.com
Random, I respect you but don't understand this statment. How can you claim that we have lost the ability to fund our own debt in our own currency? The G20 statement you posted did make a number of points that were pro some other sort of currency system, but if we look at EUR/USD, we see dollar strength and if we look at treasury bonds, yields are hardly skyrocketing. Just look at the short end of the curve - no doubt that sophisticated (and not so sophisticated) investors have been and are moving money into treasuries despite the low yields due to concerns for capital preservation. What makes matters worse (and much more confusing to me) is Bernanke's and Paulson's not too veiled threat to purchase the longer end of the curve back with printing press dollars, thereby monetizing the debt. How does that fit in with your de-monetization theory? I can't reconcile the two. No question that there are deflationary influences in the economy, but that may exist on its own accord. I do understand the intent of the G20 statement, but its significance is signficantly called into question when the timeframe for implementation is all the way out to March - hardly the way I would expect a crisis of global proportions to be managed. Also, Obama's lack of participation may not have legitimized the meeting. Will wait for a real G7 summit to see what comes out of this, or if it was not so much lip service, as I would not be surprised to see it be. I need more info/analysis on this G20 meeting before seeing it as a true sea change. Please feel free to prove me wrong, but in doing so consider your audience (me) and please write simply. Regards
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/g20-meeting-on.html While a little light on the analysis, that seems to match my opinion a bit more. Also, note that the meeting only took SIX hours in length. Either there is a plan already in existance which needed only to have signatories applied, or this was for show only.
you tool. looks to me that I have it indeed better figured out than you do. I dont need to check on youtube, I told you I have no issue with people making mistakes sometimes. I know whom he settles his trades with, whom he gives his OTC trades, and which prime brokerage desks take care of him. I even know how much of oil positions he had before he sold around 130 ;-) So yes, I would say I am slightly better informed than you are. I think we can all agree that his calls are mostly correct and I personally believe from what I have seen and heard that he is one of the best market timers, although he claims on tv to be one of the worst. But go ahead and believe whatever you like. BS is a guy who is pretty much picking fights with anyone here and then having nothing to back up his claims but instead pulls some ridiculous arguments out of his arse. Re-read your replies to others, it tells it all. ;-)
Making mistakes sometimes? Rogers has messed up with the most basic of facts. Best market timers? Oh yes, great timing the USD's demise. Please show me the post where I am picking fights with others. The only one being combative is you (in true ET fashion). But realizing that would require you shutting up for a minute. ;-)
I think you should really be fairer and better informed before you make such claims (about him, what you think of me I could not care less). He always mentioned in the same sentence that sure, oil can go back to $50 and that the USD can easily spike up temporarily against other currencies. But dude, look where the dollar is coming from. Let me ask you a simple question: What do you think will happen to USD when most countries will de-peg their currencies away from the USD, when oil will not have to be paid in USD anymore, when other currencies will become the defacto benchmark? This is his point and not more not less. Do you really think he discusses his real positions and timing of trades on CNBC? He has a great laugh each time he discusses his same old stuff and even gets paid handsomely for it. And some idiots take everything he says for the truth. I can only say I know that his positions and timing can at times be very different from what he wants it to appear on tv. What do you expect? But overall fact is that he got is macro views nailed time and again. Criticizing him based on some comments he made on cnbc just exposes you as a very naive guy who can be easily deceived into whatever someone else likes you to believe. Enough said!!!
By implying that "the FED will fail!", I would think that means the current policies of Uncle Bernie will fail and not necessarily mean that they will permanently demolish the Federal Reserve. Bernie, as we all know, along with Paulie, is one of the biggest crackpots of this century. Hence, what's the big deal about Rogers' assertion that Bernie is fucking the rest of the world with his Ph.D dissertation on the Great Depression? BS or not, such a sad reality is finally upon us.
about 15 mos ago i heard jimmy speak live. he was moving out of the us to singapore....going on and on about china....guess what their stocks are down way more than in the us we may be living in a post american world, but i can't see the chinese coming to the resue or dodging this depression\ btw, i do agree with short and naked