"Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history," Rogers said. http://www.reuters.com/article/news..._DOUBLEFEATURE_mortgage_troubles&pageNumber=1
This is the guy that called oil to $100 a barrel last year. The guy helped found Quatum so is no fool but he seems to be flip flopping a bit. Also if he thinks China stocks are going to fall 30-40% why not get out and wait for the crash and buy cheap instead of sitting with the stocks? Maybe I am missing something?
is write 2 times a day. HE has been calling for 50 cent sugar, soft commodties thru the roof since 1990's... Always has a very pessimistic bent. He probably has a ton of gold bars under his mattress to bribe the border guards ....
he also called $10 oil on market wizards. didnt happen. hes informative, I take him more as a encyclopedia than a forecaster
If you were him...... Would YOU tell the world what you were doing in your trading? Or would you talk up your positions with books, websites, interviews, tv appearances etc - and get out of markets while the bubble is building? He's not running a newsletter service, he's managing his own fortune - and he's not going to tell you what he's doing until AFTER he's done it. That's why they call it the smart money. The guy gets to the party early, and leaves way before the alcohol is gone. He just tells everyone he stayed all night
I'm in a strong RE market with traditionally little weakness. Prices (finally) dropped recently about 10% all at once. They had held firm without significant change for 2 years then all at once sellers started dropping their prices. Now there will be follow through as the few flush buyers come in not worried about price. The flipper/investors have yet to unload there holdings here at least and then when that happens the market will drop another 10%. The bellweather house in my neighborhood just sold yesterday (the negotiated price is not known until it closes) but the fact that they sold now is not good as knowing these individuals (they are market savvy professionals) they rarely make big mistakes. They consistently buy the bottom and sell the top and turn their properties into best use situations. Having said that I'm hanging on as I'm not interesting in going anywhere and am good with my situation. But I think we are now in a bear real estate market which may take years to play out......
You may be right. Rogers is one of the most likeable permabears...but he's still a permabear. He's calling for a decade+ rally in commodities and quite bearish scenario for stocks. No matter what the market does (and no matter what he's really doing in his portfolio), he'll probably hold on to this scenario unless/until it becomes completely untenable. Expect more calls for sky high commodities and stock/housing crashes...even if previous predictions never materialize.