Your comments RE: Jim Rogers are informed and I agree with you. Recently he has stated he was selling everything in the US and moving his family to China. He has a little girl that now knows more Chinese than most. China is still run by communists. The PLA is still independent and gaining strength. Jim Rogers is an idiot.
Rogers used to co-host SBox every Friday morning with Haines, Kernan and Faber...then he was gone with no explanation I ever heard about.... I always suspected they investigated and found out he didn't trade and really just made casual observations from reading Forbes, Fortune etc etc...."buy Russia"...short the VietNam cumquat market"....silly ideas that had no way of ever establishing ups or downs.... He is probably quite fun at a cocktail party...Michael Metz at Oppenheimer? is also quite entertaining....been wrong so long they don't let him on TV anymore...LOL Rogers is "big hat, no cattle"..... SteveD
Rogers has been correct on a number of issues recently, but that doesn't mean he should treated as an all-knowing guru. Bernanke's current actions are obviously devaluing the dollar, but he has few other options as he attempts to avoid a financial collapse instigated by Greenspan's credit bubble. I strongly disagree with Rogers' position that the Fed should just disappear and allow large financial institutions to go bankrupt. The last time something like that happened was in 1930, and the result was a crippling worldwide depression that led to WWII. There is just too much counterparty risk currently in the financial system and that leverage needs to be unwound via any means necessary. If that means cutting rates to 0%, then so be it. Its still better than the alternative. I'm also not convinced on Rogers' glowing view of China. Despite recent progress, transparency in China's banking system is almost non-existent, and the country is too dependent exports to the US, which will get hurt in any US slowdown. I agree that agriculture is in a bull market, but that only further hurts China, which has largest population in the world and is quickly turning from a food exporter into a food importer. Besides, I really don't understand why people on this board complain so much about the Fed. Their repeated interventions are creating huge trading opportunities. My trading profits just took off starting in August of last year when the whole subprime crisis blew over. If you know the dollar is being devalued, then do something about it. Personally, I own long dated euro calls, cme ruble futures, and have a canadian dollar denominated savings account. 2/3 of my net worth is now hedged against the dollar and I will probably take that to 150% on any significant dollar rally.
Rogers was right about one big thing in this cycle, that commodities would beat the crap out of stocks & bonds, and he was way right about that. But his moving to China shows that he's allowed his personal ideology to win out over his obviously strong analytical skills. One does not move from a country that protects property rights from top to bottom to one where the abiding ideology, not just for now, but for thousands of years, has been that what's the government's is theirs and what's any individual's is negotiable, if one has any regard for one's own wealth or any idea of just how hard it was for the West to finally get to the point where freedom over one's own private business was not only allowed, but recognized by the culture as a true good. He's massaging his ego, and if he has any heirs, they will pay the price for this. His judgment is simply not good, and that makes everything he says suspect.
Rogers is not in China, he's in Singapur, they respect private property and economic liberties there, but civil liberties not so much.
I've been following Rogers since the early 70s. Originally in Barron's on the yearend panel. Later when he became more public. Like everyone else, he's had some bad calls. That said, many of his calls have been absolutely brilliant. He's a long term investor, so you have to keep in mind his time frame. When you say he hasn't been an "active fund manager" since his days at Quantum, I'm not sure what your point is. Very true, he doesn't manage money for others. He does manage his own money. Beeland Management, LLC he is the majority owner of. Perhaps you didn't know that his middle name was "Beeland". No, he's not in the position of "money manager/trader" at Beeland. Not sure that's much of a position however. It's an index fund. They don't actively manage the funds. Lately everyone knows he's bullish on commodities. He had this one very early....the late 90s. This one call could have literally made anyone a fortune, had they believed the call, and been aggressive with it. But, he was an active short seller in Citigroup for the last couple of years. Also Fannie Mae from in the 70s. Very negative on real estate near the top, including selling his own house for $15mm that he bought for around $100K. Gotta tell you, this is one guy that I really respect. He does make some bad calls though, so you definitely need to supply your own trade management. OldTrader
If you read/listen carefully, you'll see he referred to cotton farmers, not corn or sugar farmers. As for him saying stupid things, let's check his recommendations for the last year or two: own oil, gold, soft commodities and agriculture; short investment banks, citigroup, fannie mae, real estate, dollar. Name one other guy who has appeared on CNBC - scratch that, who has said *anywhere* in the entire world - who nailed multiple calls in the last year or two as well as that. If you can find more than a tiny handful of guys who got those calls, let me know who they are so I can listen to them. Rogers can be as stupid as he likes if he keeps making calls like that.