I think he is mostly "Big hat, no cattle" talk. Looks spiffy in his bow tie and shows up on the talk shows. But I have never heard a single actual trade reported!! He makes very broad sweeping predictions like " I think it will rain somewhere in the US today". Duh He got fired from CNBC as he was very wrong for a very long time. SteveD
You mean other than being long commodities through his commodity index fund for the last 5 or 6 years? I for one have done quite well for listening to him pound the table for commodities. Just because he doesn't give you an audited trade list doesn't mean he's not for real.
HE is not a trader and adamantly says he is no good at trading. He is more like Buffet. Holds positions for 5 years or more.
But Buffet has well known holdings/investments: Coca Cola, US Airways, Solomon Bros etc etc. He has bought private companies Dairy Queen, Star Furniture etc etc. He is famously short the US Dollar. I have never seen/heard Jim Rogers on any specific trade/investment that he has made. 1 year-5 year-10 year He always makes statements that he is long "China". What the hell does that mean? Don't get me wrong. I like the guy. He is bright and has a world view. Just my two cents SteveD
why is it these over wealthy guys almost always see the world through these distorted lenses? it almost always seems this way, consistently? is this how they attract new money to be managed?, having some insight no one else does? (approach)
Criticizing (sp?) things you don't know about doesn't go a long way Steve. He was never 'fired' from CNBC. He just got tired of telling everyone to buy commodities in 1998-99 so he took off on one of his round-the-world trips and wrote a book. Speaking of great calls - read his interview in Market Wizards. Let me quote: "I guarantee that the Japanese stock market is going to have a major collapse - possibly within the next year or two. Many of our stocks are going to go down 80 to 90 percent in the bear market. A lot more of theirs are going to go down 80 to 90 percent." Note the book was published in 1989 so this interview took place in the 1988-89 timeframe. You do the math ....
Bottom line-- The reason he is successful is that he is patient and uses no stops. He and I have one thing in common and that is we never overleverage ourselves. He buys on dips and sells on spikes when short. One can do that when one is not overleveraged. Example: he bought gold before the 800 dollar run up and watched it tank for quite a while. As it did, he bought more, then it ran up to 800. If one were to follow his advice, one just has to be patient--that's all. He is not super smart or a genius or a guru--he can just outlast the small specs who can't stay in.
The older you get, the more you see, the more cynical you become. You don't get rich buying into the mainstream view. If you need a cynicism booster, watch the interview on Dylan Ratigan's CNBC show tonight with the economic hit man. His book was a real eye-opener. I'll be Tivo'ing it.
The guy makes tons of calls. Picking out the ones that are right and calling him great is not what 'bottom line' results are all about. (He pounded the table for commodities long before he started the index fund.) I think he is one of the most entertaining, provocative, and thoughtful guys on the tube, but again, what does that have to do with percentage returns when we don't even know what the actual trades were?