You guys are being waaaay too subtle for Marketusurper. No doubt it doesn't occur to him that his bet is denominated in units of measure mensurated with a rubber ruler.
There's no debate, oil is going up, maybe way up (150, 200). Anyone who disagrees either doesn't understand the current state of global geopolitics or is making an ill-fated attempt to make the contrarian play. marketsurfer - you're wrong. What research could you possibly be referring to that you can't talk about? we dont need to know the name or location of the report etc. We just want to know what type of supply you're talking about. Could you possibly be referring to a major oil find? Or are you bullshitting? The only type of oncoming supply that could immediately cause prices to begin to decline is a NUMBER of MAJOR ONSHORE or COASTAL oil fields. Even if these were discovered, it takes YEARS to go from discovery to flowing oil. All the easy oil is gone my friend. All that's left are sands/shale (difficult and very expensive to process) and deep deep water (very expensive and hard to extricate). What could you possibly know that guarantees a lower price of oil? Why can't you tell us? We aren't talking a particular stock and wondering about the secret machinations of insiders - we're talking about a global market and a global commodity. Cough it up - when you make assertions of certainty and dont back them up with evidence you either know something everyone else doesn't (not likely) or you're full of sht. which is it?
Surfie has been caught out in a major bullshit gaffe. We won't hear a peep from him. IMO $70 a barrel will draw petrochemicals from a host of alternative sources and eventually stabilize the price below $70, like the Exchecquer used to say that 2% would draw sterling from the moon. But not for at least three years, which is roughly the gestation period of their maturation and industrialization. Oil doesn't even have to go up in REAL value for him to be wrong. WE only need the dollar to suck more.
lets debate this another way - regardless of supply issues, what is the price per barrel where demand destruction will occur enough to limit price escalation? obviously not $75.
That's a tough one. I think the number is higher than we can all conceivably imagine. Why? Well, when oil was 25, people didnt think 50 was possible. The same goes for 45, 60, and now we're at 75. Why can't oil go to 200? Why not 400? Think about it. Not sure about timing, but based on geophysics... unless there are major breakthroughs in drilling technology we may not be able to tap all the rest of the oil in the ground. The oil isn't running out, we just can't get to the motherloads...
wow, what incredible bias toward $100.00 plus oil and animosity for those whose research/studies indicate it aint gonna happen. i am not going to be giving out my precise reasoning for this idea on a public message board, suffice to say, i debated even posting the trade knowing the flames from the bulls and their followers would be heavy. i confidently stand by my earlier projection of < = 70 prior to 80 and that we will not see $100.00 oil, for 50 plus years--perhaps never. disregarding my research and knowledge in this area, the extreme bullish bias of the public should be a very clear sign. i am truly surprised that the learned and experienced elite community does not seem to grasp the deception at work here and how history repeats itself over and over and over again--- different ways but the outcome is ALWAYS the same. go ahead, go long here, i need the money. maintaining shorts here @ 75.50 average entry. surf ps. peak oil theory is bad science. pure and simple.
i am not sure what you mean by this. you seem to be saying 2 different things. please clarify, i am interested in your opinion. surfie
since when was calling bullshit animosity? you're making claims and not backing them up. if you choose not to back them up that's fine, but i'm sure everyone here would love to hear about this bulletproof research. i'm not emotionally involved at all. using the bullish bias of the public as a guage is also a mistake. in some cases hype is a factor, but not when it comes to TRANSPARENT MARKETS like commodities. oil brokers and traders dont care about what the public thinks, the public is simply reacting to the oil price. Economists and geologists dont care what the public thinks. peak oil theory is bad science? please explain that one. please explain away the steady output decline of the largest and most mature oil fields in the world. Please do.
My opinion doesn't count for much, as I clearly am part of your "public". However, my belief is that oil will continue to rise in real value (and priced in dollars) for about three years until alternate supplies come on line in significant quantities. The price of oil-and gas-derived fuels is outrageous relative to electricity and I believe we will see ever-increasing electrical use. In Texas, TXU plans to bring on-line more coal- and nuclear-powered plants, in a farsighted investment posture which I believe is unmatched anywhere else in America. Eventually a lot of us are going to be charging up rather than gassing up, and more of us will be heating with electricity. When that happens the price of oil will drop. But mostly my objection to your prediction stems from a profoundly dyspetic view of the dollar. I continue to buy and store REAL money.
you are quite wrong. if i am wrong, i will lose money and be happy to publically admit defeat. i believe i have provided enough info on my positions,almost the exact time in real time of entry for both entries, etc. the "why" would make little sense to you and certainly would be called BS. let's just wait and see what happens. i'll be here. surf