This was from MarketWatch this AM which pretty much sums up my take on the short term bottom in crude: Commenting on yesterday's selloff: " Edward Meir, analyst at Man Financial in London, said the move was unsurprising, coming after two days of slim gains amid light volumes. "Clearly, the markets have yet to define a bottom, as signs of one nearing have yet to appear (i.e., a final, downside "wash-out" in heavy volume, followed by a same day recovery, suggesting that the selling pressure may finally be running its course; alternatively sharp, short-covering rally coming in on heavy volume, perhaps triggered by a significant surprise -- and not like the Thunder Horse news of a few days ago, which ultimately failed to deliver)," he wrote in a note to clients." Don't alway get it but a nice wash-out selloff and/or short-covering bounce might do the trick. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={CD2FE78D-B39D-49D9-ACFD-B16C9AFF248F}&siteid=
whats happened to the resident oilbugs? feelin' a tad deflated perhaps so what now? we'll hit $75 again before we hit $45? any word from $100 oil groupies pickens, rogers??
oil poised to break below $60 again... chavez notwithstanding... By Grant Smith Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined as swelling fuel inventories countered the impact of production cuts announced by Nigeria and Venezuela. U.S. gasoline and diesel supplies likely gained last week, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Venezuela and Nigeria, which already produce less than their OPEC targets, plan to lower output by a combined 170,000 barrels a day from Oct. 1. Other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries haven't announced cuts. ``There are massive amounts of supply in the short term,'' said Tovin Honeysett, a BNP Paribas broker in London. ``The comments from Venezuela and Nigeria are more verbal than anything else; they're already producing at the level they've talked themselves down to.'' Crude oil for November delivery fell 63 cents, or 1 percent, to $60.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:25 a.m. in London. Brent crude dropped 59 cents, or 1 percent, to $59.86 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. New York-traded crude declined 3 percent yesterday to $61.03 a barrel, the steepest drop in almost two weeks. Prices have declined 23 percent from a record $78.40 on July 14 as tensions in the Middle East eased and U.S. fuel stockpiles increased. ``The fall can be attributed to the huge inventories, particularly that of heating oil,'' said V. Raghuraman, senior energy adviser at the Confederation of Indian Industry, the nation's biggest business association. ``Prices should continue to head southwards.'' Inventory Survey U.S. inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably increased 1.5 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 29, from 151.3 million the prior week, according to the median of forecasts by eight analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline stockpiles probably climbed 1.5 million barrels from 213.9 million the week before, when they gained 6 million barrels. Crude oil supplies probably fell 1.1 million barrels from 324.8 million the prior week. The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly inventory report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington tomorrow. OPEC decided at a Sept. 11 meeting to maintain its collective production quota at 28 million barrels day. Ministers said they would watch the market closely for significant declines in the price of oil. Nigeria and Venezuela are ``small players'' without a sufficient share of OPEC production to boost prices, Iain Armstrong, an analyst with London-based fund manager Brewin Dolphin Holdings Plc, said in an interview today. Venezuela, Nigeria Venezuela produced 2.5 million barrels of crude oil a day in August, less than its quota of 3.2 million, according to Bloomberg estimates. Nigeria produced 2.2 million barrels a day in August, less than its OPEC target of 2.3 million, according to the estimates. ``If you see the price average below $60 for a week or so, OPEC may say at its December meeting, `Right, let's do something about it,''' Armstrong said. Royal Dutch Shell Plc said a convoy operated by its Nigerian unit was ambushed by an armed group in the Niger Delta yesterday. Militant attacks have cut output by almost a third in Nigeria, the sixth-biggest OPEC producer.
Sure is tanking now. You wonder if they're flooding the market before the November elections. I hear Saudi Arabia did that before the 2004 elections which was appreciated by Bush & Co. Be interesting to see if they speak up now and possibly create a short squeeze.
i was bullish on oil, but oil shales and canadian oil sands seem to have placed a cap on the upside potential. no doubt the technolgies used are not there to produce cheaper oil yet, but the canadian sands are already producing 1 miliiion barrels of oil per day. also, the oil shales are ready for production, just that it is still not economically viable, yet. but if oil goes north to 80 or above, the spotlight may be turned on the oil shales. so yes canadian oil sands and oil shales may not be substitutes for conventional oil yet, but when prices get too high "unconventional" oil may possibly cap the upside potential. para 2 & 3 can easily be researched on the net. we also have shell ceo and bp chief grp exec believing that oil prices will decline significantly. Sept. 18, 2006 issue - Shell CEO Heroen van der Veer was calling the drop in oil prices even before it began last week. An oil-industry veteran who is not given to rash predictions, he spoke recently to NEWSWEEK's Rana Foroohar about the industry's most pressing questions, including oil nationalism, security and those threatening prices. Do you agree with those like BP's John Browne who see prices falling to $40, or even $25 to $30 a barrel in the long run? We don't give the precise figures. But we do believe that future prices will be significantly lower than today. Increasingly powerful state oil companies are limiting Western access to the world's known reserves. Does that worry you? Easy oil is now mostly in the hands of state-owned companies. The added value of multinational companies like Shell is that with cutting-edge technology we can be very good in unconventionalsâoil and gas that doesn't easily come out of the ground. That would include things like oil sands, oil shale and deepwater reserves. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14788769/site/newsweek/
The key here is having automobiles manufacturered that use far less or no oil... Toyota is planning to build 1 million hybrid units per annum by 2010 that will have high range battery systems...combined with internal combustion....whereby the internal combustion will be developed to run alternative fuels... You get the promise of several million of these on the road...and oh yeah...the oil welfare states will sell in earnest...price will be dropping...and their states will be needing the money...
the technology's there this time round... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1158291&highlight=good+news#post1158291
Mitsubishi wants some of the action... http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/10/autos/mitsubishi_electric/index.htm?section=money_topstories