you guys are silly. if oil gets cheap too quick, investment in oil discovery will slow again, thus we'll be in the same dilemma we're in now within short time. Look at EIA reports: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/...etroleum_status_report/current/txt/table1.txt Domestic production is down on average about 300k barrels/day for this year. If gulf of mexico discovery pans out by 2009, then perhaps we'll be pumping another 500k-1m/day by then. in the intermediate, low oil prices will then mean demand growth won't slow much in US, China, etc. etc, thus in the long term prices will be kept high. Venezuela's great Orinoco find is sands based as well, I believe. So it won't be profitable for them to pump at $30/barrel. Same with Canada sands, Indonesia, OPEC member, is importing oil. Mexico fields, a major oil source, are declining rapidly. Add this all up and even without hurricanes and geopolitical nightmares, there will be a price floor for oil (at least until we decide to build nuclear plants and go all electric cars (such a fantasy of mine)) -- probably between $55-$70 per barrel. The only way I'm wrong is if Saudi Arabia and Russia can truly pump unlimited oil - ie another 5-10 million barrels a day within 10 years. Prove me wrong and I'll be happy to learn something new. you faith based initiative $20-$30/barrel believers are really smoking something even better than Jim Rogers, because there's too much stacked against you. Read your EIA reports and remember temporary cheap oil = long term unimpeded continued demand increases. So if you are lucky enough to get a spike below mid-50s, buy all the contracts you can!!
good enough, perhaps even $50-70 (on a not-so-nasty hurricane), and some nice down spikes as the longs are puking... whats silly other than jim rogers?
So you have ran out of arguments... It happens... As a closing note, please notice (I think you failed to do so), that I was arguing the long term QUANTITY of crude oil and not the short term PRICE of it...Big difference....
no, i've ran out of time for buffoons, thats all your anti-EIA paper was an outdated and worthless 2004 piece, and completely misrepresenting the set of hypothesis the EIA was/is still working from in terms of production growth scenarii... 2/3 years down the road they are still vindicated in their assessment... bottom line is, you haven't given either report a serious read and/or you don't have the brains... seems its the latter... good luck to you pekeman...
Psst! Come here... [whispering] I tell you a secret, but only if you don't tell anyone. Governments lie!! Yeah, I know it is shocking. But I offer you a bet. I pay you 10K for every 1 mill per barrel a day over 95 (currently it is 85 and stretching) and you pay me 10K for every dollar above $100 per barrel. Deal? I could post a nice chart where even BP prongosis makers think that daily crude output will top at 90 mbd, but facts and arguments seems to confuse you. P.S.: Out of the 3 biggest oilfield 2 of them already peaked and the Saudi Arabian is most likely peaking this year. Facts are stubborn things...
Crude oil storage room is literally running out. Inventories are at a 8 1/2 year high, and storage facilities have raised their prices dramatically. That, if anything, should give people a great idea of where prices are headed.
I think he is right; but he is not right, right now. When gold was at $390 in early 2003, I thought it was going to hit $500. When gold was at $350 a bit later, I thought it was going to hit $500. WHen gold was at $320 a bit later, I still thought it was going to hit $500. I was 100% right, but what did that have to do with how to trade gold right then? THe fact was, my "correct" view lost money for quite a long time before finally being vindicated. The position to have was short, short, short, until the down move stopped. Then long, long, long until the upmove stopped. Whether oil is going to hit $100 or not, has nothing to do with what the best position is now. Oil $100 only matters if you know WHEN it is going to reach that price, and HOW BIG any potential corrections will be along the way. So, unless Jim Rogers tells you *when* oil is going to hit $100, and *how big* the potential drawdowns will be, then his advice is worth no more than a tinker's fart.