I really don't think $100 oil will be sustainable actually. However, the whole market wants (or now expects) oil to go up to $100. I do believe that we will see $100 touched.......I feel pretty certain of that... the sentiment as well as general global conditions are getting many people to fear clicking that sell button on oil.... I don't think anyone in their right mind would be selling oil right now given the fact that so many global economic conditions are pressuring the commodity to rally... That said, we know that speculators make big money when they sell while everyone else is buying.....they have to be right though.....right not only in market direction but also in timing.....jim rogers, in my opinion, is probably right on market direction.....i'm not so sure about his timing though......at this point, any rally to $100 would be taken, by me, as an artificial one...
I don't think that there is any such thing as a reasonable prediction when it comes to oil. I oil is produced at the current rate it won't be long until we see $20 per barrel prices. However if Gulf shipping routes get cut off then we are easily going to hit $100. If you want a trade out of this i think that you could do alright selling futures on the far out contracts and buying the XLE.
As long as there is turmoil in the middle east, oil will continue to rally....i firmly believe that... The only bet I'd like to make on oil is to sell as much as I can when it hits $100......
i am in my right mind,( although some would debate this) LOL ! and i am short oil. average price 75.50--2 out of a potential 3 entries thus far.....
I think the oil companies (they are the ones who actually use the product) see oil at about $40-45/bbl. I say this with the utmost respect for the "knowledgeable" posters regarding oil on this board, LOL. I have a friend who trades natural gas only. The reason is that both oil and gas are very transparent to those in the industry. They know where every barrel is and how many there are. He does not understand how I pick stocks from some 6000 public companies. Remember Pickens went upside down (Chap 11) and Rogers just likes to hear himself talk. I would not be surprised if he did not own any oil or natural gas. SteveD
Amen. If we are looking at a final high for this year it likely would be 80 rather than 90 or 100. Anything above the last high to lift this OIH up solely for the purpose dropping it 5% again is fine with me. http://tequity.blogspot.com
I believe oil will hit $100.00. I do not know when. The fact is we are consuming twice what we are discovering and China needs more.
You are partially right. Gas price would go up. I mixed up oil and gas here. But enduser demand would be the same, because refining is just a middlestep between production and consumption. Thinking about it, yeah, oil price would probably drop, because of sudden excess of raw material. What most people don't realize when thinking of oil are: - refining capacity is almost used up completely, running on like 97% currently - the world's tankerfleet is getting older, not many new ships are being built These 2 factors can and will greatly effect both the price of oil and gas...
And many refineries are old and falling apart, and they aren't building new ones. Kind of makes you wonder about the tankers. Why aren't they building new ones?
I think there is a new obligatory standard to build it with double hull. I assume that costs more... Also, lots of people don't know, but the gas that is used in Iraq is being refined in other countries. Yes, in the US there hasn't been any new refinery built in the last 30 years for enviromental and business reasons. It is actually good for big oil, because it artifically creates a bottleneck...