in a context where the overall mild inflationary pressures are coming under control globally thanks to normalizing interest rates (ie going back to historical avg ranges) and where global growth is finally poised to decelerate from the highs, with construction & RE notably gradually coming down from the highs, its only natural for commodities, especially metals, to start coming down as well, back to historical averages... another hike in china & japan and u can say bye bye to commodities highs and to jim rogers for the next 20 years oh yeah, what if there is a full-fledged WW over Iran?... well thats the thing u see... for anyone who's interested in understanding how the now crumbling iranian islamic revolution needed to spice up the rhetoric (they are years away at best from being nuclear capable...) and throw last-ditch provocations in lebanon etc to muster public support against iran's nemesis (the US, 1953 democratically elected prime Mossadegh's ousting by the CIA) and attempt to prolong the islamic revolution's dream, i urge you to read Shirin Ebadi's sobering book (Nobel Peace Prize 2003): Iran Awakening http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1400064708/104-5814939-2409549?v=glance&n=283155 hot off the press! short story is, there'll be no such war... and as for terrorists attacks in Nigeria etc, hurricanes etc, they're priced in twice already.... they may cause a few spikes there & there but thats about it imo...
agree with that, but not before 2025 horizon, when its become a curiosity fluid again, pumping refining etc equipements have been mostly abandoned to rust and sand, and there's a sudden demand for a designer fossil fuel of sorts...
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_pauly&sid=acUzduABKCDo Did You Know There's a World Surplus of Crude Oil?: David Pauly Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Maybe the markets are lying. Crude oil keeps trading at $70 a barrel or more, where it's been pretty much since mid-April. U.S. gasoline costs on average about $3 a gallon, enough to make you think about walking. Still, there's a world surplus of crude oil. Analysts say production of the low-sulfur crude refiners prefer now exceeds global demand by about 1 million barrels a day, equal to about 1.2 percent of consumption. While basic economics suggest oil prices should be declining, Charles Maxwell, oil analyst at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Connecticut, says the surplus has done its work by keeping crude from soaring beyond the record $78.40 it hit last month. Since last spring, when there was no surplus, he points out that Nigerian output has been reduced by civil unrest, Venezuela and Iran have both cut production and BP Plc has found a leak in its Alaska pipeline. If that had been foreseen, ``you would have predicted $90 oil,'' says Maxwell. Oil prices per barrel may actually decline into the $60s next spring, when supplies usually become more abundant, if U.S. economic growth continues to abate, Maxwell says. He says there is anecdotal evidence that industry and individuals are starting to conserve energy. Another reason why crude prices might fall: ``We're running out of bad things that can happen.'' Funds Out? Earlier this week, Ben Dell, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, said crude prices were ripe to fall considerably because of the surplus -- and because buying of oil by pension funds and hedge funds may be ending. These funds have been able to buy crude on the spot market and sell it for future delivery at a higher price. The storage facilities needed to accommodate these trades will fill up in four to six months and they will have to end, Dell said. Crude oil, at $73.05 a barrel yesterday in New York, would be about $50 a barrel based simply on production costs, the Bernstein analyst said. The rest is due to increased investor interest and concerns about supply disruptions for political or military reasons. I have a hunch that the price of oil -- which was about $10 a barrel as recently as 1998 and which traded between $20 and $40 in 2002 and 2003 -- may soon drop even more than the experts think possible. Analysts, though, make a good case for relatively high prices staying with us. Lack of Vision The emergence of huge economies in China and India, for instance, has increased world demand for oil significantly while capacity to produce oil hasn't kept up. It became evident in 2000 that oil consumption would increase and the major publicly held oil companies should have doubled their spending for increased production, says Maxwell, who began working in the oil industry in 1957. They didn't. ``You can lay this at their doorstep,'' he says. Exxon Mobil Corp. has spent tens of billions of dollars buying back its shares, Maxwell says, money that would have reaped additional profit if it had been spent on production capacity. National oil companies, which control the lion's share of world production, didn't expand capacity either, Maxwell says, because they didn't get enough money from their governments and because they turned away private investment by tough bargaining. Maxwell predicts the price of crude will be between $55 and $75 for the next two years -- mostly in the $60s -- and people will adjust to the higher level. I'd still like to see $45 oil, but maybe this is the best we can hope for. (David Pauly is a columnist for Bloomberg News. Opinions expressed are his.)
As I've been saying for weeks: Natural price is 50 to 60. Terrorism, line probs, etc, jack it up. I won't say never on $100 oil, cause shit can hit the fan. But, all things equal, with current Econ, 50 to 60 is normal. Ask the House of Saud. They know.
Revised forecast for next years oil prices +18%. http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=137551
Peak Oil Theory is bunkum, a nonsense. Notice they never talk about huge reserves in Siberia,off Mauritania, recently discovered reserve off the coast in Australia etc. It is a crap theory spread by people on the payroll of oil companies/hedge funds. Also notice they treat with disdain the concept of demand destruction. Here in Melbourne, Australia, a city of 4,000,000 people. Public transport usage has increased by 14% in the last 6 months alone. That means people are not driving their cars but using trains and trams to commute. Jim Rogers,trains and trams do not use petrol.