Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by a529612, Jul 24, 2006.
he is wrong. very very wrong. merely promoting his positions.
we are holding all oil shorts at this time.
It will hit $100, it's a matter of when. Especially the Middle East situation doesn't look better any time soon. If the situation get worst, it will get there sooner.
Why is he wrong, what is the other side of the debate from you then? I agree that there will be $100+ oil some day, may not be this year or next, it's coming though. I've believed that for many years, and it isn't far away.
Jim just stated $100, and said it was possible this year, not a definite, isn't it a possibility? Saying that he's wrong, means to me that you believe $100 oil isn't possible at all.
Looking forward to the response.
Good Evening and Good Trading!
nice to hear from you. rogers says--oil <b>will</b> hit 100, possibly this year. there is no question he believes that oil hitting 100 is guaranteed.
i am not able to share the reasons for my conviction that oil will not hit $100.00, other than saying, there is a strong potential of tremendous supply coming down the pike.
It only takes:
- a hurricane hitting the Mexican Gulf hard
- a little war with Iran
- accident of a tanker, damaging an important port
- accident at a refinery
- the oil industry finally acknowledging that we already passed peak oil
- a nice revolution in Saudi Arabia
- the dollar falling 20%
- Iran or Latin America starting the new oilburse
- the introduction of the H4
The truth is that oil is still dirt cheap....
H4, LOL ! the H3 is on my most hated car list.
remember what happened during katrina. we profitably shorted this event. EVERYONE expected the opposite effect.
I don't think oil will be coming down until three things happen:
1. war in Iraq starts to bear fruits in the form of a self governing independent nation forming
2. Terrorist threats to oil pipelines and oil refineries decline dramatically
3. a new administration takes office (not republican)...
As long as there is insecurity in the middle east and terrorists target oil refineries, speculators will be long oil.... as long as an administration which has shown its propensity for siding with big business over the american people stays in power, oil will continue to at least stay where it is (though in my strong opinion will likely, go higher).....
That's what I believe....
Jim Rogers, in the past, has been quite good with determining where commodities will be going....unfortuneately, he has not been so good with timing....his predictions often take years to crystallize.....
one thing is for sure.....if jim rogers is buying oil, he's keeping it for years....this is the heart of what he, as a commodity speculator, tends toward doing...Jim Rogers has a reputation for adding to losing positions until the market goes his way....
In the mean time, I'm staying away from oil and trading futures that tend to be correlated with oil's price action: T-Bonds....
Why would a refinery accident cause the price of oil to go up? Seems like it would decrease the demand temporarily and cause the price to go down.
Price of GAS would rise though.
no question there will be severe fluctuations. however, i have a strong conviction combined with solid research that $100 oil is not in the cards.
Separate names with a comma.