What I don't understand is that he correctly forecast a huge recession as a result of the real estate bust, he correctly forecast a massacre of the banking system, but stayed long commodities. Why didn't he see impact that a full-on collapse in lending and the economy would have on commodities demand and therefore on both his commodity positions and China positions? Once the commodity markets turned down and the recession turned into a full-scale rout of the banking system, he should have at least reassessed his bullishness IMO. He was too stubborn and unreflective and it cost him. Soros on the other hand started shorting oil way above $100 for those reasons.
Didnt Soros went deep into Petrobas at the top and had a 80% haircut on that trade? Also, bad times often means higher commodity prices. Seventies, 30's...
Cutten, J. Rogers is obviously expecting the huge deficits in the US to result eventually is serious inflation. (I believe i even heard him express this view in a recent interview.) He must believe that commodities will continue to be priced in dollars on the world market. I am assuming he is just holding for the anticipated inflation event. He has always said he is no good at short term trading. He seems to be very patient. But you raise an excellent point, why indeed didn't he get out of commodities when they started to fall. I do like them now, but i am still assuming we will eventually have big time inflation in the US because of the deficits. I also, in my investment accounts, like the dividends that some of the commodity stocks pay. (I sold some RTP Apr puts for 14$ when RTP dropped to $60, sadly i won't get to acquire any RTP via that route). I like oil now too.
I don't know if it is the best option, but Rogers used to to have an index fund of commodities. Otherwise there is always the Goldman Sachs commodities index.
You must be joking. Or are very limited in your sources of information. Whatever Rogers said in 2007, I was reading about two years prior. By the time he mentions something, those who are openminded & really see what is going on, already have heard it all. You can search ET and find threads talking about the mortgage/RE bubble being blown up. This" financial crisis" is no surprise whatsoever. Some individuals were talking about this back in late 1990s, when the mechanics for this were being put in place. In regards to Russia, while Rogers is talking, I personally know people very well who were ready to short the RTS index and have been waiting for months. And not because Jim Rogers was talking, but because they used their own brain, scan information and live in Moscow. That's the difference. Rogers is just talking, while these guys are capitalizing on it. Jim Rogers can't even admit that he has made wrong calls and about what positions he really puts on. He is no messiah or prophet. He has an ulterior motive. If you like what he says, there is much much more. Much better sources out there and a variety of them. Don't get hooked on any "guru", be your own guru. He is not giving you any answers. Nor is he being 100% truthful. And personally, I think he is a shill for the globalist agenda.
In many interviews, he references the ups and downs of commodities. He'll say (paraphrasing), "oil has gone down by 40 or 50% 4 times in the last 10 years. But it wasn't the end of the bull market". I think his general strategy is to see a big shift (of 10-20 years) and stay long until a fundamental change takes place. He started getting bullish on commodities in the mid 90's, opened his commodity fund in 98, and has stayed with it. I don't think he can time individual corrections, within his big bull market. He stays until supply/demand changes. He says in every interview, the known reserves of oil have been going down, north sea in decline, no oil discoveries in 40 years. That's why he stays with it. The weak players get shaken out on these declines (08 decline in commodities/China) but he sees the bigger picture. No reason to sell if this is only temporary. He doesn't have Soros' trading skills.
Does Rogers still subscribe to his BS "18 year commodity supercycles" theory? He still doesn't admit that this is one hell of a commodity implosion and bear market? He was using the "18 year" line in every interview over the last couple years. He stopped mentioning it lately.