Jim Rogers is VERY SHORT as of 3/17 VIDEO

Discussion in 'Trading' started by blowingup2012, Mar 19, 2012.

  1. Fed says rate will NOT raise rate before 2014, but market is saying different now, likely in 2013, why are those people betting against fed on bond market? (It may imply fed may crash stock market and support bond market in the near future, which in turn support Jim's view).
    You can't take every words out fed, some time they don't want to scary off market, they say something stupid. I like Jim, but I don't agree every words he is saying either.
     
    #11     Mar 19, 2012
  2. This is an election year so they are going to be as positive as possible in the news and they are going to throw as much money as they can at the economy. Afterall, the government is 40-50% of the overall economy and employs millions of workers. Nevertheless, I just dont trust this time of year. Historically, this has been the worst time for me. So Im sitting it out on the sidelines.
     
    #12     Mar 19, 2012
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    No question he is a bright guy with a very thorough knowledge of the commodity markets. He has always said he had poor timing and was no good at short term trading.

    He went short bonds way too soon, but he is a very, very patient investor.
    Eventually interest rates will rise and bonds will drop. We are seeing some early, maybe too early, anticipation of that now.

    It would be foolish to ignore his warnings of the dangers of too much sovereign debt, and what could happen down the road, but it seems he doesn't appreciate Keynes. And if I'm right about that, then I think he is wrong not to appreciate the virtues of Central Bank easing in a recession. If the Fed could redo some of the details of the emergency actions taken in conjunction with Treasury in 2008-9, i'm quite sure they would. But in the main, since then, the Fed and Bernanke have done an outstanding job of putting Keynes prescription in place. At least the first half of the prescription. The second half requires that the Fed tighten once the economy has recovered and that some combination of spending reduction and/or tax increases be implemented in boom times. Keynes was a very smart guy, and proven correct in so many cases that I can't doubt that he was also right about the way to smooth out economic bumps in the road.

    The problem is this: The Fed controls the first part of the Keynes prescription, but the Congress the second. And the morons in Congress have shown themselves to be incompetent and incapable of rational action. For this reason, I think the disasters that Jim Rogers sees coming down the road may well play out as he anticipates, but if they do it won't be because the Fed has been "printing"; rather it will be because Congress did not apply the breaks to spending once the economy recovers. And as to Roger's timing, well who knows?

    Furthermore, I don't think he appreciates the excellent job, in the main, that Bernanke and company has done in carrying out the Fed's half of the Keynes prescription. Sadly, having the U.S. Congress in charge of the second half of the prescription seems to be a flaw that has no chance of being corrected short of major changes in the Constitution. A balanced budget amendment might help. I have always opposed that, because it could hamstrings the government in emergencies, and I thought it would interfere with implementation of Keynes' "Part One." But I am beginning to appreciate that a very carefully drafted balanced budget amendment might work.
     
    #13     Mar 19, 2012
  4. #14     Mar 19, 2012
  5. Thanks EMG. At least we all know we should stand aside and wait for you to give us the "all safe" sign.
     
    #15     Mar 19, 2012
  6. 2008 was an election year as well. Everybody was saying the exact same thing in early 2008.

    Granted this market is far more "thinned out" and in the hands of central banks, but this sentiment is just as empty as the "don't bet against the Fed", which always works until it suddenly doesn't.
     
    #16     Mar 19, 2012
  7. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    I thought you were sitting in St. Maarten?
     
    #17     Mar 19, 2012
  8. I think the fed would rather support the bond market.

    If the bond market collapses and rates rise dramatically, were gonna have big problems.

    I think they would rather have equities and risk assets deflate vs the bond market collapsing.

    If the bond market goes down things are gonna get ugly fast.
     
    #18     Mar 19, 2012
  9. clacy

    clacy

    Exactly. The bond market will be the ultimate deciding factor in when we finally have to get our deficits under control. They can kick the can further down the road, until the bond market says, "It's time to get your act together, or else".

    At which time the politicians will either have to deliver a lot of bad news (lower benefits and higher taxes so both sides will be pissed), or decide to go the Wiemar route. In the case of the latter, you're talking total collapse of our current political system.
     
    #19     Mar 19, 2012
  10. [​IMG]
     
    #20     Mar 19, 2012