Jim Rogers - Forecast

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by SouthAmerica, Sep 12, 2012.


  1. January 5, 2008

    SouthAmerica: I mentioned a number of times on this forum that thousands of Brazilians are returning to Brazil – legal and illegal immigrants. And that is also happening to other groups of foreigners who were living in the United States.

    The Exodus is going on…..

    Another example and also a clue to this trend you can find out by looking the figures related to cash transfer businesses in the US such as Western Union that many of these foreign workers use their services to send money home to their families. (We are talking about billions and billions of US dollars here.)

    In 2007 many of these cash transfer businesses were saying that the amount of these money transfers had declined drastically when compared with prior years and some were saying that the amounts of transfer had declined by 30 to 40 percent from the prior year.

    These declines are a combination of two things: first, many illegal immigrants are returning home, and second, the ones who still living in the United States are having a problem earning money as in prior years – many of these people work in the housing construction business.

    These are people who have initiative, they want to prosper at any cost, they are hard workers, these are the people who took a chance and moved to a foreign land on their pursuit of a better life, these are people who would find any type of work and they are not afraid of getting their hands dirty – these are the type of people who serve as engines that help the economic pie to grow.

    When this type of people starts giving up on a country such as the US, and they start moving to a better pasture some place else - then you know your economic system has a real problem.



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    May 5, 2008

    SouthAmerica: Reply to Yannis

    ...By the way, things are getting so bad in the United States that we have an Exodus of illegal immigrants going back to where they came from. On May 1, 2008 The New York Times had a front page story “Fewer Latinos In US Sending Money Home.”

    These illegal immigrants are the canary on the coalmine when it comes to the American economy – they are giving you advanced notice to all the troubles that are already affecting the US economy.


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    May 9, 2008

    SouthAmerica: Thousands and thousands of illegal immigrants have been heading home since last year – and these people are the canary on the coalmine.

    Everything that is good eventually it will come to an end.

    Look at the British they used to rule the world and the seven seas, and many British people still delusional and think that they still a major world power – and they want to hang on to an obsolete currency instead of adopting a new currency for the 21st century.


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    June 8, 2012

    SouthAmerica: To answer your question: For all practical purposes there were 1.3 million Brazilians living in the United States out of 2 million Brazilians living outside of Brazil. But that was before 2008 since then we had an exodus of Brazilians leaving the United States to go back to Brazil, today the new estimated number would be close to 900 thousand people instead of 1.3 million people.

    Anyway, the 1.3 million Brazilians that used to be living in the United States was split right in the middle – half were legal immigrants and the other half were illegal immigrants. About 800 thousand people where living in the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut area, about 200 thousand in New England Boston area, about 200 thousand in Florida, and another 100 thousand across the country.

    By the way, I would suggest that out of the 900 thousand Brazilians that still live in the United States at least half of these people should go back to Brazil, before they are not allowed to live the US anymore.

    That fence that they are building in the border with Mexico is not to keep illegal immigrants from coming into the United States - as the US turn into a police state that fence will keep Americans and foreigners from leaving the United States - just like the Berlin Wall.

    The wall is being built to keep people from leaving the country and not the other way around.


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    #21     Sep 13, 2012
  2. April 29, 2012

    SouthAmerica: The article said: “According to a report this week by the Pew Hispanic Center, the net flow of migrants from Mexico to the US has ground to a halt and may even have reversed after decades during which about 12m Mexicans moved to the US – as many as half of them without immigration papers.”

    When even the Mexicans are returning home that means that today the US has an imploding economy that is nothing to write home about it.

    The other day the Financial Times had another article about the exodus of well educated people (human capital with master degrees, and PhD's) who are returning to the countries where their parents came from – we are talking about 100's of thousands of very well educated young human capital who are leaving the United States because they think the best days of the US economy is long gone.

    The standard of living in Brazil is in the way up for a fast growing middle class in that country – contrast that with the declining standard of living in the United States that is heading south very fast – for example: in the last 10 years over 30 million people moved up to the middle class in Brazil, and at the same time the food-stamp program for destitute people in the United States grew by another 30 million people.


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    November 13, 2010

    SouthAmerica: Reply to The1

    ...The US economy had a complete meltdown and collapsed in 2008. And since that time the US economy has been on intensive care, the patient still is in a coma, and have been kept alive by massive US government intervention, massive US government guarantees, by major Wall Street bailouts, by fudging the books with accounting shenanigans - and the new economic recovery is based on a lot of wishful thinking, and also on the economy that does not exist anymore including all the pieces of Wall Street that went out of business, the thousands of auto dealerships and automobile plants that closed down - and now the Republicans are expecting that all these businesses that don't exist anymore are going to come back from the dead, and they will start hiring people again to help with the economic recovery here in the United States.

    The US economy is finish - the US economic system is in a lot worse shape than most people realized.

    The US economy is in critical condition with very high unemployment, which is going to get worse in the coming years - the truth is the US economy is spinning completely out of control and imploding.

    The human capital (the well educated people with higher levels of education) is leaving the United States at an alarming rate and going to places where there's some kind of future for them such as Brazil, India, China, and so on...(In 2008 alone 100,000 Indians went to India and this new generation who are leaving the country are made up of a very well educated people with PhD's and other science degrees these are the guys who start the high-tech companies in Silicon Valley and in other parts of the USA. The reason they are leaving the US and going to India, it's because they think the future is going to be created there and not in the United States.)

    The mainstream media here in the United States never say a word on this subject, but in the last 3 years the United States had reverse illegal immigration - that means that there are more illegal immigrants leaving the United States than illegal immigrants coming in - the net loss of illegal immigrants has been around 2 million people during that period – and you can see what is happening with this reverse illegal immigration not only by the exodus that has been happening around the communities where these illegal immigrants used to live, but also in the large decline of the amount of money that these illegal immigrants used to send home to help their families.

    This trend of reverse immigration has not happened in the United States in a long time probably in over 100 years. These reverse illegal immigration is the “canary in the coal mine” and represents a major alert signal to the implosion that is happening inside the US economy, since these illegal immigrants are the type of people who would take any type of job to survive and to help their families.


    As I mentioned to you the US economy can't create jobs and the real unemployment rate is much higher than the official figures.

    But today, the political landscape is changing for the worse in the United States with the latest election - with the major political parties splitting the US Congress and at this critical turning point in US history the current president of the United States will not be able to do anything in the next 2 years. We are going to have a complete paralysis in Washington at a time when what is left of the US economy is imploding, self-destructing, and in critical condition.

    And don't forget that at a time of this major economic decline the baby boomers are going to put even more pressure on the system, since for now on every year the US government has to carry about an extra 3 million people, and pay the costs related to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and so on. The number of people depending on these government entitlements is growing very fast from 40 million people to 72 million people in a very short period of time.

    Every place you look at you can see signs of massive decline of the US economy. The Shuttle space program is having its final voyage into space in the coming weeks then NASA is laying-off thousands of high power scientists in Florida, and in California – and keep in mind that NASA has been for a long time one of the symbols of American advanced technology – this NASA implosion it's just another sign of American decline and that the American economic system has become completely obsolete.

    Today I realized the United States economy has reached the end of the line, and now it's just a matter of time for the rest of the world to arrive to the same conclusion.

    The implosion of the economy of declining empires happen much faster today than in the past - today it happens at the speed of light.

    On top of all that we have had millions of jobs lost to new technology – there are more jobs that got replaced by new technology than people realized – and these jobs will never return to the US or the global economy.

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    #22     Sep 13, 2012
  3. Bob111

    Bob111

    :p :p :p
     
    #23     Sep 13, 2012


  4. èäè íàõóé õóéëî! = unique meaning concerning the Scorpion

    He wants to imply that he is a real bad dude.
     
    #24     Sep 13, 2012
  5. Very humorous articles at best, but ore likely at worst sad articles. Nice try, but false, and sad. Look into the outflow of citizens. If things are soo bad actaul citiznes would be leaving en mass, as opposed to simply illegal immigrants. You may want to spend a considerable amount of time understanding the subject and the numbers. TO me this isn't the place to spend the time, but I am willing to suggest you should spend more time understanding what you think you are saying.
     
    #25     Sep 13, 2012
  6. Bob111

    Bob111

    :D :D :D is that google translator or something? f** funny..but i agree on unique meaning :D :D :D
     
    #26     Sep 13, 2012
  7. No.

    It is not Google translator.

    Google translator say that this is Spanish.....
     
    #27     Sep 13, 2012
  8. September 13, 2012

    SouthAmerica: Reply to taclander

    Here is a little more humor for you:

    For all practical purposes the US economic and financial system is dying a quick death.

    The United States economic and financial system has over US$ 2 trillion dollars parked on the sidelines waiting to enter the game. The US economic system has a real unemployment rate of around 20 percent with a vast educated human capital and more than 50 percent of the unemployed has at least a college degree. The American economic and financial system has plenty of available capital and a vast number of educated human capital ready to go back to work, the only thing missing in the United States is capitalist brain power to create new ideas and innovation on how to create jobs in the US economic and financial system.

    The best the US job market can produce today in a good month is around 96,000 jobs, most of these jobs are what we used to call “hamburger flipping type of jobs”, but today the US government classify these jobs as a manufacturing job, and the hamburger flipper is a hamburger engineer.

    I am not kidding – that kind of crap is what pass today as American creativity and innovation....

    All the Wall Street rocket scientists know how to make money these days is by creating Ponzi schemes and by taking everybody for a ride, and creating nothing of value for the US economic and financial system and also the global economic and financial system.

    Here in the old USA we are aboard of the “Titanic” watching the big ship sinking a bit at the time......

    http://youtu.be/xZ8Olj0xs4Q


    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/G8ey_RBdxYM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>



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    January 7, 2008

    SouthAmerica: ...The situation is getting more and more scary by the day, since I see a drastic increase of people who are losing their jobs and are going to the Labor Department to ask for help. The quality of the people unemployed is mind boggling, since over 50 percent of today's unemployed have at least a college degree.

    For the first time in US history, over 50 percent of the people who are unemployed are very well-educated people.

    So much hype for the American dream, but according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics out of 100 people that start working at age 25, by age 65—1 percent are wealthy, 4 percent have enough money to retire comfortably, 3 percent are still working (can't afford to quit), 63 percent depend on Social Security, friends or charity, and 29 percent are dead.

    The reality is that over 90 percent of all Americans retire almost in poverty after working for 45 years.

    For the people who are unemployed, the economic depression is already here. For the people who still have jobs, they know that if they lose their jobs it will be almost impossible to find a new job. The difference between past recessions and the current job slump is that the people laid-off in the past would be rehired when the economy recovered. This time around most people's jobs have gone forever.

    We are in the beginning stages of a possible worldwide depression. Americans still in denial and they don’t want to recognize the reality—the best days of the American economy are long gone, and today the system is running on borrowed money.

    The federal government, the states, the companies and the public are all surviving on credit. How far can this situation keep going on before the house of cards collapses?


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    September 4, 2012

    SouthAmerica: ...Today we have a bankrupt country in every sense - with a collapsing, obsolete and aging infrastructure around the country, a pile of debt sky-high, a declining quality of life and standard of living for most of the population, and a future that looks very bleak at best.

    The US capitalist and economic system model is very obvious it is completely obsolete - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out - for all practical purposes the US capitalist and economic system died a sudden death in the Summer/Fall of 2008 - since then we have a system that has been in critical condition, and have been kept alive based on heavy US government intervention, market maniputation, and all kinds of artificial stuff to keep the patient alive another day.

    It is nothing to write home about it!!!!!!!

    The US capitalist and economic system model it is completely broken, and Americans don't have a clue on how to fix it. The US corporations have trillions of US dollars parked in the sidelines waiting to enter the game, the US has a real unemployment rate of around 20 percent (and half of this human capital has at least a college degree) - the US dying system laid off 7,000 highly educated human capital from NASA, because Americans run out of ideas just about regarding everything.

    And Americans are arrogant and they want to export to the rest of the world this very sick and dying economic and financial system.

    Today the United States social, economic, and financial system is just a shadow of its glorious past - it's a system that is on its death bed, dying slowly and waiting to pass away.


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    September 13, 2012

    SouthAmerica: During the second-term of the Bush administration they got creative and they found a way to show that manufacturing jobs were being created inside of the United States economy, and they started counting hamburger flipping as manufacturing, to help produce statistics showing more jobs in what has been a fast declining sector of the U.S. economy.


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    FR News - February 26, 2004

    White House Considering Reclassifying Fast Food Jobs As 'Manufacturing'


    Is cooking a hamburger patty and inserting the meat, lettuce and ketchup inside a bun a manufacturing job, like assembling automobiles?

    That question is posed in the new Economic Report of the President, a thick annual compendium of observations and statistics on the health of the United States economy.

    The latest edition, sent to Congress last week, questions whether fast-food restaurants should continue to be counted as part of the service sector or should be reclassified as manufacturers. No answers were offered.

    In a speech to Washington economists Tuesday, N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, said that properly classifying such workers was "an important consideration" in setting economic policy.

    Counting jobs at McDonald's, Burger King and other fast-food enterprises alongside those at industrial companies like General Motors and Eastman Kodak might seem like a stretch...

    But the presidential report points out that the current system for classifying jobs "is not straightforward." The White House drew a box around the section so it would stand out among the 417 pages of statistics.

    "When a fast-food restaurant sells a hamburger, for example, is it providing a 'service' or is it combining inputs to 'manufacture' a product?" the report asks.

    "Sometimes, seemingly subtle differences can determine whether an industry is classified as manufacturing. For example, mixing water and concentrate to produce soft drinks is classified as manufacturing. However, if that activity is performed at a snack bar, it is considered a service."

    The report notes that the Census Bureau's North American Industry Classification System defines manufacturing as covering enterprises "engaged in the mechanical, physical or chemical transformation of materials, substances or components into new products."

    Classifications matter, the report says, because among other things, they can affect which businesses receive tax relief.

    "Suppose it was decided to offer tax relief to manufacturing firms," the report said. "Because the manufacturing category is not well defined, firms would have an incentive to characterize themselves as in manufacturing. Administering the tax relief could be difficult, and the tax relief may not extend to the firms for which it was enacted."

    David Huether, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers, said he had heard that some economists wanted to count hamburger flipping as manufacturing, which he noted would produce statistics showing more jobs in what has been a declining sector of the economy.

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    #28     Sep 13, 2012
  9. .
    September 13, 2012

    SouthAmerica: Ben Bernanke came through one more time with the only gimmick left to keep the US economic and financial system going and surviving a little longer.

    The US economic and financial system is very sick and it's in a coma and the patient is dying a very slow death – just like the Soviet Union system slow death a few years ago.

    Wall Street is asking for “QE Infinity” and George Soros and the top economist at “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” - these “Rothschild Zionists” are saying that the major Central Banks – “the ECB and the FED” - are going to provide infinite market support to governments and to Wall Street.

    It seems that the European Central Bank (ECB) is also adopting the major Central Bank innovation created by the US Federal Reserve it is called “The Abracadabra” system where the Federal Reserve can create an infinite number of US dollars from thin air.

    It is not really from thin air – they just turn the computer on, and bring up on the screen the bank accounts of any bank they want to perform some magic, then they place on the screen any number they want with as many zeros as they desire on the right side of that number as follows:

    US$ 1,000,000

    US$ 1,000,000,000,000,0000,0000,0000,0000

    or

    US$ 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.000,000,000,000,000,000

    I wonder if the Fed is limited in any way by the number of zeros that the Fed can add to its QE game.

    This American innovation, the “Abracadabra” system of banking where the Federal Reserve can create infinite number of US dollars from thin air comes with just a minor drawback:

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/WI1i5yhwOz8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


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    Reuters – September 13, 2012
    “U.S. stocks, oil rally on new Fed stimulus”


    NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks and crude oil prices rose while the dollar weakened on Thursday as investors bet that the Federal Reserve's fresh phase of monetary stimulus would support economic growth.

    As part of a new round of quantitative easing, the Fed said it would buy $40 billion of mortgage debt per month to keep borrowing rates low, starting on Friday, and would keep its benchmark interest rates "exceptionally low" until the middle of 2015.

    Stocks jumped, with the S&P 500 index on track for its highest close since December 2007, as lower interest rates make riskier assets like stocks more attractive.

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    #29     Sep 13, 2012