Another day another bull on cnbc touting a higher stock market, nothing new here just the same old dribble day in and day out. 14,000 here 14,500 here and soon to be 16,000 and 17,500. So 15,000 in a few years as more investors return, would be funny to see the DOW peak a bit above 15,000 or 16,000 then fall back below 10,000 again. Because you know thats whats going to happen. No one saw it coming when the dow was racing higher in 2007 but it did and the same thing will happen again. Always does, no need to get in on the hype, a bit of patience and you will be able to buy the DOW back below 10,000!! Expect Dow 15000 If Investors Return: Jeremy Siegel CNBC.com | February 21, 2012 | 03:37 PM EST Are you ready for Dow 15000? Long-time market bull and Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrial Average can exceed 13000 and rise to 15000 in a few years if more investors return to buying stocks as the economy improves. "I think we have a stronger economy now than we did a year ago" except for oil, "which is a wild card," he said. "I think we can certainly move up from this position...I think we only need 8 percent a year further on this year and then next year to get to Dow 15000, given valuations." He spoke before the Dow briefly reached 13000 mid-day Tuesday. The University of Pennsylvania professor said 13000 is double the level of the Dow at its low point of March 9, 2009, "the deepest bear market since the 1930s. I think that's somewhat of a milestone to double the low in less than three years." Stock valuations are very good "in a zero-interest-rate world. You don't get many opportunities like this," he added. Despite an earnings season he called "good, not great," the stock market is strong. "We don't need super-fast earnings growth to have a good market," he said. "At today's valuations...if earnings stay the same this year and in 2013, 2014, you still have valuations and yields that make [the market] very, very attractive." Whatâs also different today is that as recently as 10 years ago "you needed a lot of capital gains in stocks to match what you can get in bonds because interest rates were much higher than dividend yields," Siegel said. "When dividend yields are higher than interest rates you donât need so much in earnings growth to still have a great investment." Siegel admitted he hasn't always been bullish. He was "very bearish at top of the tech bubble" in March 2000. "Have I been wrong? Yeah, certainly," he said. "One thing I regret is I did not see the financial crisis and the bear market. You know, I saw the housing bubble. I didnât see the buildup of those risky assets leveraged in Bear Stearns, Lehman and all those others" whose failure helped bring on the 2008 financial crisis. But then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan "didnât see it either, and he could look at their balance sheets," Siegel joked.
Has it occurred to you that maybe some people fear "'inflation" is a risk? And that equities historically have been the best hedge against inflation. You keep looking at the S&P 500 as a stand alone product when you need to value the S&P 500 against the cost of healthcare, energy and education.
Wow. How insightful. "We can beat our numbers if employment improves and people keep buying." Yikes. I have to believe even Dr. Siegel is cringing at that quote.
Googling some pics, Secular bear markets end with single digit P/E ratios. Earnings could speed up for this to happen but <s>I doubt that happens</s> alright that shits not gonna happen.
Cool charts by a Yale dude. Now that carries more credibility than a Wharton dude. Why can't Prof. Shiller shift the horizontal line up from 10 to 15 in the P/E ratio chart? What is so magical about the number 10? Is that his lucky number? Disclaimer: I lost a lot of money listening to pundits about the P/E ratios.
We are in for another boom imo. So much gloom and doom, relax already. Times will get good again, they always do.