Long ES at 868.50 *edit* - covered at 871.25 on a measured move, may have been an early cover. Looks like a lot of traders got caught short with their stops over 870 on this move.
Lots of indecision in the market today, looks like the shorts are scared this afternoon after getting run over all day.
Not a very busy day for me in the end with the FOMC really keeping me from getting into a lot of trades. My trades were: Trade 1 - Long ES for +2.75pts Trade 2 - Short ES for +1 pt Trade 3 - Long ES for +2.75pts All the trades today I at least followed my rules and ended in the black. Trade number two I had a much bigger profit target but when the trend changed on me I was able to still get out with a small profit instead of just letting it hit my original stop. There were plenty of other trades I could have taken in retrospect and that is still what I'm working on. I know that if I have a method that gives me a high probability of a good trade then what I need to do is take all the setups to maximize my profits. If there are 10 good setups in a day maybe 7 of them will work out well but what I need to do is force myself to take all 10 instead of just the few that I take everyday. There's a random distribution between which setups are winners and which are losers and obviously I don't know which is which beforehand. Therefore, to maximize my profits I need to treat all the setups equally, enter the trade and then let the market decide whether I'm right or wrong.
Nice day again Jeff, I really like your inner thoughts on what you need to do to keep improving. It seems to be working out well!
Thanks geez, I guess I've just tried doing it a few other ways and it never turned out well. A few years ago I gave it a shot but was under-capitalized and afraid to lose money. I also used to try and pick the top or pick the bottom and that never worked out either. It's just been a constant study of the futures and I finally feel confident in my method that I have worked out and my account is well capitalized for how I trade so now it's just time to go out and execute!
Ok, here we go, first trade today. Short NQ at 1210.50 *edit* - cover at 1210 for a virtual scratch. We got a new low in NQ by a tick and then it snapped back when I lowered my stop down. I was looking for it to blow through that previous low and make it to at least 1205.
Very tight trading so far, I've had a couple bids and offers in ES today and I haven't been able to get filled either way and with the tight range the last thing I'm going to do is chase anything. For example, I just wanted to buy the ES on the pullback off that recent pivot high of 855.75. When it retraced I put a bid in at 853.50 but it blew right through there on the way back up and never came down to my bid. I was only looking for maybe 856.00-856.50 so it wasn't worth chasing.
Bit of a counter-trend play here so it may come back to bite me. Sold 855.50 in ES *edit* - covering at 856.00, recognizing that the trade isn't really within my rules and it's better to just take a 2 tick loser and come back with a better trade within my parameters.
A month ago I would have taken that last trade every time and I would have lost a good part of the time. I've almost learned to not short into the top of an up-trend, although I just made that mistake I quickly closed the trade out for a minimal loss.