If you consider that JC Penney stores are "less crappy than they used to be" that could be viewed as a sign of growth, but it's no Macy's and it's important to remember that it relies on mega-discounts to draw in the crowd (but so does walmart). JCP stores are still a lot nicer than Sears, whose stores seem to be stuck in the early 90s, and so shoppers who don't want to buy zubaz and can't afford macy's but don't want ghetto walmart digs are turning to JCP as the "bridge". With earnings due this Wednesday, my assessment is this: If most people believed JCP was a bad deal they'd pull out by now and the stock would have plummeted back down to the $6/share price or maybe even lower. It's relatively stable north of $8.50 for now. Today there was a downward spike and probably will be one tomorrow as the more conservative investors dump their shares, but there definitely are more buying than dumping, so the price level is holding. People are expecting JCP to post a loss, but if they can lose less than is expected I can see a solid $9 in the near term $10.50+ into Q1 of 2014; their sales and margins are picking up since they brought back their cheap store brands and their online sales are up over 35%. I'm bullish on JCP and suggest that it's a solid buy.
The qustion is whether this recent run from $6 is a bear market rally or whether the stock will break the downtrend. You suggest that the recent run is evidence of continuing good news, but if that were true, bear market rallies would not exist. We need other evidence. Shorts are just 2x daily volume. Put/call is down from where it was, which suggests not too much bearishness. At this point you would want to see more bearishness towards the stock in order to fuel a recovery. Investors are complacent despite all the bad news. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/sentiment_brief.aspx?ticker=JCP Bonds would be expected to lead the stock, but little evidence of a recovery in the bonds. http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C52338&symbol=JCP.GN Not much to point in either direction, other than the fact that long term trend points towards $0, and you are betting against the trend.