jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits

'Do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right ?' SLAP
'Do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right ?' SLAP

That class ?

 

By the way, that setup you couldn't name is called the "WTF, I'm shorting this with a teeny tiny stop, I mean come on, bulls, is that all you got?" setup.

 

LOL.

Thanks, it was on the tip of my tongue.

 

Good stuff

my thought;

Where your first up TL is…, should have one just before it – starting at the same point, but at more of an up angle

Then viewing/ comparing the two – you see (“can gauge”) that selling strength increasing / conversely buying strength decreasing

Also, referencing this first turn – you can gauge the subsequent tests are putting in LHs

(a compressing of price is occurring)

Granted it’s a minute detail – but as I see you’re finding out – details matter

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My freehand lines (in red) suck…, but then,.., what can ya expect from cheap help – LOL

Good Stuff My Friend… Good Stuff


eta; one other thought - try and think more diagonally

recall - everything on a chart..., save one - should impart no bias - rather reflect



RN

 

Thanks for the chart, RN.

You got me thinking about TL's some more. I remember years ago playing with them. Maybe after reading Edwards & Magee. They looked great. Enter on this TL cross, exit up here on this cross. Perfect.

I used to get William O'neils Daily Graphs every week and for awhile Mansfield's weekly charts (Showing my age. Anybody remember Mansfield ?) So I started drawing TL's. Exit here but wait it's only a small PB then higher, re-draw then same thing. I concluded back then a TL is always going to get broken and really has no predictive power. Horizontal S/R made sense to me so I mostly focused on that and crosses of those levels.

More and more I'm seeing TL's for what they are. A pretty handy tool to simplify analysis and at times amazingly effective. Seeing things diagonally is still new to me but I see how it provides a different focus which keeps S/R Levels in perspective.


edited to add, exit up here "ON THIS CROSS" for clarity.

 

Today I traded Live. 2 trades +46 I was very pleased with the outcome and lost some focus after the second trade so stopped trading.

The second trade I was very nervous when price stalled after entry. It took a fair amount of talking myself through it to stay calm and stay in the trade. I shouldn't be this nervous in a trade but I am so I' m dealing with it. The nervousness comes , I think, from not wanting to give back profits. This is not probability thinking or the mindset I should have but it's my reality. I was very, very pleased I was able to stay in til target was reached. Positive reinforcement like that has got to help.

Potential issues going forward are me moving targets. The first trade I increased my target for acceptable reasons given the PA. So that's not a problem. The second trade I lowered my target based on my perception of resistance levels and probably my nervousness in the trade. This I should not have done. In fact given the set up my experience is that increasing the target could have been done. I'll have to monitor this because I should stick with my 20 tick targets the majority of the time. This will be an objective measure of my discipline.

The other issue i'll need to overcome is continuing to trade and maintain focus after booking profits. There were more opportunities
after I stopped trading. I think I get so relieved that I was positive I just lose focus. Not a huge concern right now but definitely an area I'd like to improve on.

 

Nice job! I was in both those trades, very close to the same entry prices. First trade target was a lower trend line that was around .14 at the time and I removed my hard target hoping for a break, but the line held and I gave up a few ticks.

Second trade, I see your measured move idea, but at the time I didn't notice it that way because a) I shoot for at least 20 ticks, and b) once price is that far along the excursion to the range high just above .40, chances are it's going to at least sniff around there. More importantly, if you connect the swing highs at 5:45 and 6:55 your time, the upper trend line is at .48. I placed a hard target at .48, felt like a trading goddess, said to my Skype friend "Now watch it keep going" and then it did. Usually there's at least a couple little pullback bars off a key level like that!

As for feeling nervous on that second trade, the PA convinced me the trade was a total failure as well, which is why I spent so much time training myself to trade my plan instead of trading what I think or how price "feels".

You're doing the right thing by practicing sitting with that discomfort. The next hurdle will be replicating with a live account that comfort you're building.

EDIT: Oops, just saw that you did trade live. Extra kudos!!

 

For folks following JIH's journal...

He and I are holding a simplification intervention


Holy Mother of God!!! (inside joke)


RN

 

Greetings J,

Hey, excellent job on Friday's trades. I see that you've recognized that you're still not "thinking in terms of probabilities". That's ok,...its a learned "Skill Set" that comes with time. But in the meantime, let me offer you up a “thinking methodology” that I used to help me overcome the "nervousness".

You see, I don’t believe that you need to “struggle” or “tough it out” to overcome this obstacle. It can be done doing it this way, but in my opinion, I believe the task becomes that much unnecessarily harder. Further, I believe that to do so, would mean that you are fighting against an “affect from the outside”, while harboring the “cause from within”. You don’t need to struggle…what you do need to do, is to “change from the inside out”.

Let go of the struggle mentality. Remember, First cause is always mental! If the course on your ships computer is programmed to go North, you can struggle to turn the ships wheel west, but as soon as you let go of the wheel...its heading North again. That is the problem with struggling against programming, or your own "internal grayware". You need to “Change the grayware,...the way you think about the situation”.

Again, you must learn to think in terms of the "series of trades" vice any individual trade. Therefore, set your "Series Evaluation Target" at a sample size of 20 trades. Then, keep your mind focused on the objective that you will only evaluate the results after the sample size of 20 trades is complete.

Remembering that,... anything less than 20 is statistically meaningless. Isn’t that true? Tweaking or doing anything to the method, or any individual trade before the sample size is complete, is just going to screw up your overall results,…isn’t that true? Try focusing on the fact, and saying to yourself that:

"Damn,….There really is nothing to think about,…Until then"

"Damn,…There really is nothing to think about,…Until then"

"Damn,…There really is nothing to think about,….Until then"

And the truth of the matter really is; that there is no need to think about anything until then...isn't that true? This is because you aren't going to realistically tweak anything technical until you have an established database of statistically significant events or "trades"...are you?....isn’t that right? To do so would mean that you are introducing “random variables” in the trading method mix, and this would in point of fact, damn sure dilute the results of your series…wouldn’t it?

There really is nothing to think about,…until then...Doing this, and thinking in this way, the results from these trades are now in the HANDS OF THE STRATEGY AND YOUR TRADING PLAN....AND NOT IN YOURS!....you are simply the “Observer and Recorder of the Data", get busy doing that job while the trade is on!

What the job really is while trading is to; ALLOW THE FREAKING STRATEGY TO PLAY OUT, IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHAT THE HELL IS REALLY WORKING, AND WHAT IS NOT, ON A PATTERN PROBABILITIES BASIS.

From now on, always trade in "Sample Sizes" in order to keep track of YOU, and to keep track of the efficacy of the METHOD.

That to me is your Center of Focus while trading!

Anything else, in my opinion, is wasted mental energy.

Hope this helps.

KDASFTG

 

I took Saturday off with intent to reply on Sunday. Turns out my family threw me a surprise b-day party Saturday night. Sunday I ended up spending more time with friends that flew down from NorCal. I'm a lucky guy.

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ND, thanks for that info. Very glad to know I wasn't alone in my discomfort on that trade.

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RN, I may owe you a PM.

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KDA, thanks. You're now in my head. (see chart) I added to your thoughts the Breathe reminder which should help keep me calm and focused

Fortunately got in to office a bit late so missed lot's o' chop.

1 trade so far.