Hi JAS, Thanks for your post on my thread the other day, I just got the joke about my spelling while reviewing things over the weekend! You traded futures 20 years ago? What has brought you back to them now?
The easy money ! I guess the short answer is I'm stubborn and i love the markets. I never had the quite the success i thought i should have had in trading so i want to do it till i get it right. I bought my first stock when i was 15 and tried trading stock index options in my early 20's. Then tried the futures. I've spent many hours reading and researching the market over the years. I still love the challenge and the self improvement aspects that are part of the process. Last summer i came across the price action threads here on ET and thought it time to give it another try. And yes the money. That of course is a motivator. Some of the keys , i think , to success in trading are self honesty, perserverance and a love of the markets (or perhaps a love of the challenge). I've read your journal and think you no doubt have the first two. If you find you truly enjoy this pursuit you have a better of success than most.
Thanks for the trading plan I skimmed thru and have done most of that, but I'll read it in more detail and see. Have you read Al Brooks book? What do you think of it?
I just got Al's book last week. Only about 20 pages in right now. First impression is that the material could have been presented in a clearer easier to understand manner. Should have started with some definitions of his set ups then shown some examples. He jumps right in to the bar by bar analysis leaving it to the reader to find his set up he's referring to. But, I like it and will continue to read and re read it. Certainly, helps to have experience reading charts before tackling his book.
No trades. Waited with everyone else for FOMC to end then couldn't find an entry. Either poor focus or more likely poor ability in reading price action today. Saw a few places where i was thinking short but felt like I was chasing so i stayed out. Missed the final 6 points due to an interruption. Not a complete loss though as I've reviewed the action and see some very good clues i missed that would have provided good entries. Since I also believe that missing trades can be caused by a poor understanding of my set ups, I'm trying to refine if possible some of the specific entry rules.
2 trades, +5 & +5.5 Both shorts. Internet went out for last 2 + hours and never came back up. Hopefully verizon gets it fixed by tomorrow. The first trade if i had held longer i would have picked up another 4 points or so if i remember correctly. Had decent reason to exit when i did so i won't beat myself up about that. Second trade hesitated a bit on entry. Waited for a break out to sell instead of taking the earlier price action clues. Could have picked up another 2 or 3 points i think. Fortunately, i got lucky and didn't take any significant heat.
Very frustrating to have a good day yesterday and not be able to follow through. -5 today, 2 trades 1st trade i made a mistake and entered short at support. That's clear to me and i'll try to avoid doing that again. 2nd trade is similar entry as one yesterday. To me it looked like it had momentum to take out the prior low at 2215.5 Seems to me this trade is a good R:R. Anybody care to comment ? Possible reasons why i should not have taken this trade are the bullish bias on the day i.e.; bigger time frame trend still up and adv/dec numbers quite bullish. Also i'm tired today and perhaps should have been more selective or just stayed out.
Well this is interesting. I'm reviewing my trades for the past two and a half months, which includes sim trades, and i see that on my winners my MAE is rather small. Only 2 trades where it was > 2 points. And yet i'm using a hard stop of 3 points and have many discretionary stops > 2 points. In doing some quick calculations if I change my stop to 2.25 points the points I save less the points on the winners i would have been stopped out of is about 15 points. This is based on about 80 trades. So the questions is a) Am i an idiot for not realizing this sooner b) Is sample size too small. I'm going with a) right now and will be adjusting my stop down. I'll also be reviewing the numbers again and more frequently and watch to see if this turns out to be too tight. It's possible if volatility picks up that 2.25 may stop me out of trades that become profitable. Just looking at my last 5 profitable trades the total was 26.75 points with a combined MAE of 3.25. Yes, this is very interesting !
RE: Market Bias. I usually do a good job of not having much of a bias. I've got pretty much the same number of long as short trades. Lately i've become very bearish on the market and have only taken short trades, even though i've seen some decent buy set ups. Today there was a very nice DB that i just watched. I know i'm not supposed to have a bias and yet... So going forward I'll try to not let my bias keep me out of trades. Re: Focus. Didn't have it today. Maybe the slower volume, maybe trades going against me, maybe I'm tired. I need to be more aware of my mental state. Actually a little irrated with myself as i'm usually pretty self aware in this regard. Hmm, irrated and no focus. Guess i'm tired. -4.75 pts today. Probably will join the other traders and cut back on the trades through rest of the year.