Our brains can work better than ALgo's - the hell we write them !! We sometimes fail/get emotional/can't follow our plan...and therefore mess up often. At the end of the day its our mind that we needto control. My excercise (and by no means I am perfect) is to get into the LOOP mode as I grab a position. just like any program. I also have a post-it with MY LOOP on it in case i get distracted. At the beginning, i had to literally talk out loud "why am i going to do what I am about to do" - look at my post-it and won't get off my hands (under my Butt) untill my loop demands Exit. LOOP is just a Hypothesis - a simple Entry/ Exit logic. Power of now just help me realize that at any moment any Chart is just as static as a Daily chart. If i can read and act on a daily I should be able to do it on a 1 min chart as well. I just have to be faster, focussed and less distracted. And man, what can i say about experience. i rememebr my first job, 3 months into it. I thought i can do what my VP does. what the hell !!! ... 6-7 yrs later i know I was an idiot to think that way. So who here is struggling - stay focussed, find a real successful mentor, learn and just stick around (long enuf )!!!!!!!! Guru
Took some time off during the holidays. A much needed rest. Feel more focused now. Traded 2 days this week. Still getting my traders mind back on and it's a little fuzzy. My big problem which i'm working on is that set ups aren't always clear to me. Goes with the job description of a discretionary price action trader, perhaps. For example , is it a breakout pullback or a failed breakout. Or as i'm learning maybe it's a weak breakout that will just consolidate below the B/O point. i know the clues to look for, like whats the bigger picture trend, how far did price breakout, volume, how fast did it pullback. The ambiguity of set ups is what i'm working on. I accept the idea of uncertainty of trade outcome but i need to get in my head that the decision process must be more certain. i continue to review set ups through out the day that i miss and take notes. i'm also going to spend more time reading Brooks' PA book. Going forward i'm entering my busy season at work. i don't expect to do any trading during feb, march and april. (maybe a little in feb ) I am concerned that the skill of reading PA must be continually practiced and being away from the markets may set me back some. My plan will be to at least review post market charts. Actually i will be able to watch some action during the day but not with the focus i'd like. I may set up the market replay also. I pulled up my trade plan today and did my annual review and 2012 goals. That's where i'm at currently. I'd like to thank all of you who have taken the time to offer me advice , suggestions and encouragement this past year. i wish you all a healthy and profitable 2012 !
OMG this is slow action today. Been researching new guitar amps to keep me from making stupid trades. Mostly worked. 2 trades that didn't work this time (small losses) but ones i would take again. This year i will be choosing an area of study each month to focus on. This month i've chosen to study failed break outs (2B entries) I'm collecting and analyzing chart examples and writing up notes/clues/rules on taking w/ trend 2B's and counter trend 2B's. Also comparing a failed breakout vs a breakout pullback So far so good. I'll also be reading A Brooks and others on this topic as well. I've done this kind of study in the past but believe now after hours of screen time i'm picking up more clues. Also staying focused on just one entry rather than collecting info on many set ups is reinforcing some key points. Not sure what the others months study area will be. Continuing on to break out pullback and break out entries would be logical next.
Been awhile since i've posted some charts/trades so i'll throw a couple up here. I'm finding the January action slow and a little difficult to trade. VIX has been trending down. My first short was not an ideal entry and then i exited about when it turned lower. I had taken as much HEAT (edit: for word left out) as i was willing to. I did stay calm and patient and saw a reason to re-enter short and i'm happy with how i stayed focused. I exited that short based on a measured move and a resting buy order. Exit was at 2437 and price eventually went to 2422 with minor pullbacks. Not frustrated at all though which is an improvement over the past. The error is either relying on measured move as a target or not finding a re enter spot. I think it's the latter. here's a chart, more to follow
next 2 trades short around a resistance area. Too early on the first but then re -entered. 2nd trade had MFE of 5 then had a quick retrace. exit for -.25 Failed to exit at a logical target but i was trying to give the trade more time as trend was still down. I had an Elliot Wave count heading lower which helped get me in the trade but was of no help in taking profits. I don't generally trade off EW but sometimes the waves just seem so obvious i'll trade them. (i posted some charts in Snowriders thread last week and today) Trailing my stop tighter probably would have been a smart thing. ended +3.75 today . Although i could have had alot more i mostly traded by my guide lines i've established for myself so i have no regrets. At the same time i'm always looking for ways to improve so i look at the review process with that in mind as well. Lastly, i scratched my trade review process i previously wrote about. this month i've been printing a chart of every trade and making notes on the chart and on a trade worksheet i have. It takes more time and generates lots of paper but for me it's the most effective review process.
I'm back. Today i opened my Ninja trading platform for the first time since January. I've been working my real job (taxes) six days a week and have had absolutely no time for any trading or study. Over the next week i'll be easing back in to trading. Reviewing my trading plan , my notes, charts and set ups. By May i'll be ready to trade with the proper focus and attention required. This is the year i will get my trading to the next level - consistent profits and increased size. If not i've considered hiring a mentor. Honestly, though i think i have the knowledge within me and that a mentor would only provide hand holding. We'll see. Enjoy your weekend traders !
Thanks CL ! ----------- Dealing with ambiquity is a big part of the traders learning curve. Today i stalked a trade for awhile waiting to see which way it would break. My bias was to the upside and PA clues were there confirming but i failed to act. (about 10:00 am 2705 level) I think it comes down to lack of confidence in my ability to read price. For a discretionary trader the set up was pretty clear. On one hand i feel i'm missing a piece of the the puzzle that will confirm the entry and on the other hand i think , as i said, i just need to have confidence (and balls) and take the trade. Been reviewing and watching this week. First actual trading day in awhile. Initial thought was i'm just a little out of practice. Maybe. I need to reframe my self talk and and analysis so i'm taking these trades. Good to be back.
No focus today for some reason. Tired i suppose. Frustrating as there were lots of good opportunities but i just wasn't reacting quick enough. My exits have been less than ideal this week. Too focused on target and not current PA. Exited a couple trades too early on minor pullbacks and held a couple trades too long instead of exiting at logical S/R area. Trying to remain calm and objective when in the trade going forward. There was also a sense of so much focus entering trade that i then relaxed and became too much of a spectator. Trade results so far this week attached.
Just here to learn, as a fellow student, so my comments are observations and not critique: Checked your yesterday's trades on a 5M chart and you had 3 trades. The first long was a counter trend long after a wide range body (WRB) candle and no double bottom, or higher low, so may be not a high probability entry, although the low of 05/02 was close. Were you bottom picking? Looking at the 1min chart, it was a decent entry, but the price clearly reversed around the 5m 20ema. May be a good target for your counter trend trade. Did you get a short signal on the 1m after that (same as your long may be) reversal? The two shorts were kind of late in the trend for what I prefer, during/after the third push down, again not the highest probability. At least you did not lose on them.