I’ve been trying to put this into words for a long time. It is that my statistics were all screwed up by the chasing and overtrading and losses… to the extent I could not get a real handle on what the risk actually was. My stats that said it was obvious things could work… but they didn’t work. Like Mark Douglas says, and NoD is saying here, analysis doesn’t get you out of this – objectivity does. Why? All I knew was that the risk I was experiencing was greater than made sense. That’s scary. As NoD says, you know you have the key to the kingdom but it doesn’t seem to turn the lock. Now that is frustrating, because the obvious, direct and even simple isn’t working and that hurts on a deep personal level – leading to more analysis… The longer I chase and overtrade and lose, the less quantifiable the risk becomes. The less I can get a handle on it. The harder it becomes to accept... because it is like some nebulous Halloween spirit/mist that grows and lurks. So, it may be that one of the steps toward objectivity is doing what makes risk real, that is, making it actually quantifiable. You know where this is going. A plan simple enough to be actually doable, repeatable plan. It’s not discipline. I think for me discipline happened when my plan started tweaking my behavior, instead of me tweaking my plan. Which was a sign I actually had a real plan that could work. I keep going back to Mark Douglas where he says you have to have absolute confidence you will be profitable in an uncertain environment. There is the chicken and the egg of which comes first, the confidence or the profitability. Frustrating. The plan comes first. But it has to be simple enough in the choices and beliefs that I can actually do it, and then repeat it consistently. Susana demonstrates that. What she puts out, no matter if it will win or lose overall, it is absolutely clear enough to be back tested and put into live practice. You can do it. You can get real stats. IF I can actually do it – which happened when my plan got simple enough it changed my behavior because I knew I could actually do it – THEN I can generate real stats on the risk as well as the potential profits. I’m on solid ground. There! That is the seed for confidence… the source that sprouts into objectivity. Don’t know why it is taking so long for me to make this point, but there is something about the nebulousness of the risk that really messed things up for me. Mark Douglas says I need to be able to absolutely deal with risk. How are you supposed to absolutely accept it if it is nebulous? --> It was an unexpected consequence of simplifying similar to the way Susanna though and did it... that took out the nebulous. Risk is real. I love it!
Try this on for size Sir It not the nebulousness of the risk - it there.., it solid Rather..., It the nebulousness of trader to define..., accept said risk =================== Place stop here - it got hit (oh but if I only gave a few more tics.., trade would have worked) Place stop here - (but I don't really want to take the loss/ a loss) Place stop here..., profit target there - but I got out early because I don't want to ..... (fill in the blank) on and on ================== Risk is present..., risk is palatable..., risk is what we define..., we manage..., we accept Or..., convert into quicksilver (and this act right here fucks more things up for traders..., than carter has pills) Because you are drilling down / distilling / clarifying Nothing wrong with that RN
Exactly. Mark Douglas said to accept it... but beyond that to realize I love it! Love that it is solid and real. Amazing!
You know, I've pealed the onion a layer or so on this one before. I was always irritated that my statistics were not remotely predictive of my future trades. I kind of knew that it was because I was not consistent. That is obvious. But I didn’t realize how much I was focused on the probabilities and risk for profit… and ignored somewhat identifying or accepting the risk for loss. I did the risk for loss, but my focus was on the potential for profits. I guess. Reminds me of the guy in chat who was sim trading and would see one of his set-ups, take it and talk about it. Then if it lost he would say that it didn’t matter because obviously with real money he wouldn’t have taken that trade. He was serious. …sigh… accept the risk. Another aspect of this quicksilver handling of risk can be the constant focus on one’s P&L… the money as opposed to doing the protocols. Lack of discipline, Etc. …as you say it has more variations and implications than carter has pills. It sounds so easy, and I’m talking about something as plain as the nose on my face, yet without taking the quicksilver (the Halloween spirit/mist unrepeatable can't-get-a-handle-on-it) out of the risk and making it real – no amount of defining, managing or accepting will work. And that is why all of my statistics were pretty much a waste of time. It has always been a kind of itch to understand that better.
Wow, you traders are fantastic ! I really can't properly convey my gratitude for all your help. Thank you!! And every post was helpful and will be read again. Earlier this year I hit a point were 80% of my weeks were profitable. More importantly I was executing well and following my plan with more and more consistency. So what happened ? One of the things that was working earlier this year was my ability to avoid, through better discipline, trades in a range. Less chop trades. Great. However I think at some point I took it too far and became too cautious. Over thinking things and as mentioned by others not willing to accept risk. (risk for me is not wanting to make a mistake ie violate plan) I've had a hard time coming up with objective rules for range /airspace. When I wasn't thinking about it too much it just seemed intuitive. When I started paying more attention I became confused and cautious. I think this has been part of my problem. Of course, then missing trades leads to further frustration and confusion. I'll post some charts in next post which might help explain where my head is. I'm not looking for any body to reveal any trading answers/secrets, Just some chart examples on my progress or regression actually The other thing I've thought about is my Consistency of Thought. Why am I passing on trades I previously correctly took ? Besides the aforementioned, I have found answers that should make the plan more objective and keep my thinking the same day to day. Accepting risk. I think you traders nailed it. There's probably been a mindset shift that happened too.
I've done a lot of review past couple weeks and the problems noted on chart I think I've made progress in resolving. Some rewriting of plan to keep me focused on context and key reminders to provide consistency of the thought/action. These two charts i think are representative of how my thinking has been last 2 months. Looking for reasons to avoid risk I suppose.
Thanks. thanks. I'd be a fool to ever tell you to shut up. I learn too much from your comments. Always makes me think. But I will let you know if I don't see things the same way. jas