Thanks JP i was thinking the same earlier but did catch some of the short through OR(1st hour) Low. NASDAQ showing strength . YM & ES still below ORL. Going to be interesting.
Nice call JP. chop. 1 short trade +5.25 MFE 10.00 I accept i will never master exits. However, I will try to improve on them. It just now occurs to me that on my trades that move a few points in my favor then retrace I am impatient (afraid ?) and exit too soon. With trades that run well in my favor i possibly hold too long. Since the big winners (approx 10 pts for me) come less frequently maybe i should just grab them when i have 'em. I doubt I'll do it as it goes counter to my current beliefs but i'll give it more thought. Attached chart , placed my exit above the ORL as a trailing stop.
It looks like you did a good job there on the exit. For polishing your exits - You need to Identify the daily ranges in % (just guess based on the pre market activity and FTSE/NIKKE activity) It does not nesesarily be used to set target but Exits. They both are different. Target and exit both can be derived from the expected daily ranges. Since I trade equities mostly, I know that the avg. move in the Futures of Indexes, sector I am trading in and then I have a feeler exit plan in the back of my mind. lets say the futures are about 0.50% down, I am looking for stocks in the down move WITH VOLUME (this is a game changer for daytraders in equities). My expected exit of a profitable trade would be some where around that number. IF the profit runs over that number anything over that is a gift. Usually STOCKS on the move overshoot futures say by twice on an average. Problem (I dont want you to convert to equities)with futures is that they are CHoppy for the most part of the day - very few directional moves with clearer entry points. Once on the move, they move quickly and in a volatile manner. They can retrace more than the "reasonable". Stocks seldome do that. you can excercise better position management and risk.AAND the Best seller is that you have way to many options. By options, I dont mean not all the 10K stocks listed on the exchanges, but selected few (may be 10 - that fit my filters for ON THE MOVE STOCKS) there will be few EVERY DAY. with little of no reactions. I can post a few if you want. Its a no secret to any successful equities trader. However, the day its CHOP oN futures you will get burnt easily if you are not patient. Futures can mean alot of money, quick with leverage. But you have to be a Sharp shooter Elite - SNIPER. Wait ...See ....Kill ....Retreat. GL.
One of the things i look at , although not frequently, is the 10 period average of the nasdaq daily % range. The thought was it would give me an idea what to expect. It also seems to give a clue about volatility expansion/contraction if one assumes a relative low % range will return to a higher norm. Honestly, though i haven't played with it enough. Plotting the daily percent range into a bell curve or some such format is something i've thought about as well. Keeping track of average intra day swings in the NQ futures might be something i look into as well. S/R levels as targets are what i'm trying to apply at the moment. Thanks JP
Someday (soon) i'll be a decent trader. maybe not great but decent. -4 points today , 4 trades and net zero for week. Mostly i enter on breakouts. For whatever reason stalled pullbacks scare the shit out of me and i just stay out of them. Going to have to work on that because i'm missing some good entries. My stops RARELY get hit and then have the market turn and run in the expected direction. Today that happened twice. One could have been avoided if i hadn't hesitated on the entry. I'd prefer not to widen my stops but it's something i'll consider. Certainly based on the chart my stop should have been wider. I think my problem is entries though. 1st trade was a good entry (not a brreakout) but when support held and price moved strong i exited for -.5. Lesson here is just because support held doesn't mean resistance is going to be taken out in the opposite direction. Probably should have given this trade more time. Drawdown would have been 1.25 pt had i held. Upside today - the moon ! At least i did better than last week.
So in regards to stops. I could pick my exit area first and then make sure my entry is with 2.25 points of that stop. The problem is then sometimes i'll miss trades because price is too far from stop. I've gone through this whole debate with myself months and years ago and I like the fixed point stop based on entry. It's easy (that's not necessarily a good thing) and i don't miss any trades. Wider stop ? Maybe but based on past trades i shouldn't need to. If volatility picks up so that i continue to get whipsawed then i will have to adapt and use wider stops. The solution to days like yesterday are good entries. I missed a good entry after the first trade and I hesitated on the second. If i hadn't done that that solves alot. Re-entries. I need to realize my stops getting hit were whipsaw retracements. My view of direction was correct and nothing changed to alter that view. Usually when i'm stopped out it's because i'm wrong on the direction. I then sit and wait till i figure out whats going on. Yesterday, maybe i should have realized sooner i was trading the right direction and market structure was still heading lower. I'm not sure what i'm saying here. Realize difference between a whipsaw stop and look for reentry versus a stop that means you were wrong. Something like that. Confidence and conviction. Again the first trade. I don't want to be arrogant with the market and maintain my short trade bias when it holds support . But i need to have a little more confidence that i know what i'm doing and stick with this trade a bit longer. Be willing to take some heat. This is tough and hopefully I just need more market experience.
Monday: uneventfull 2 trades -1.00 . Then had internet problems Tuesday waited around for Verizon to come fix internet. (btw, impressed w/ their service. Tech fixed problem and recommended a new modem, vz shipped new modem to me overnight) Today Began trading 2 contracts. Didn't get a chance to scale out of anything as nothing really moved much after entry. Ended up minus 2 points total or 1 point per car. 3 trades. Did a good job on second trade of taking some heat. Third trade I should not have taken. I see that now. It was a poor read of PA on my part. I definitely feel i should be trading better at this point but I realize it will not help to worry or become frustrated about it. So some more review and back at it tomorrow.
working hard for nothing so far. 4 trades net -2.25 points per contract. trading 2 cars today. was even after 3 trades. 1st three trades had good entries. 1st trade didn't get enough follow through and ES acting stronger so i exited. 2nd trade price made another new low and stalled. ES did not make a new low so i exited. I think i may have to stop watching ES. It's not helping. I was thinking about 'confirmation bias" after that second trade. The idea that we look for or put more weight on evidence that supports our position/belief. I think i had the opposite of confirmation bias. I was looking for evidence i was wrong and found it in the ES. 3rd trade not shown on chart was a nice long entry that broke out and stalled. 4th trade i may have rushed the entry a bit buying a break out. For the most part trading OK, focused with good entry reads. Exits need some work.
Exactly. I was in the state of mind of ready to take heat on the second trade but then outsmarted myself by watching the ES too much. lesson learned , i think. trades 3 and 4 attached. trade 4 not entirely proud of. trade 3 if anything should have exited sooner but i don't think it's too bad