Very nice analysis, You will one day start getting pisseed evevn before you utter Could, would should..... I saw that you drew a line showing the trend and you also have a MA on the chart. Hesitation is due to the FEAR of being wrong or loosing monies. Its hard to gain confidence when there is no one around you to tell you take it, i believe in your analysis, you are doing a good job and so forth. Truth is there will be no one ever probably there. You will have to your own coach that needs to push you, when you feel you are right. I am not encouraging over trading. But atleast when you feel you are right (and this changes with experience). Remember that all the trades that will make you HAPPY the most will be the ones in which you had Anticipated the moves, with either TA or some system and pattern. I believe and this is my personal analysis is that this is because of that lil Gambling bug in our minds that tells you that the ODDS look good and then you WIN and its all fun. I moved away from that long time ago and it helped me. I now see ACTION i size my self in that move. Obviously has to start strong to get my attention. What this does is that my only bias to enter is SEEING visually something and if that trade fails I do not feel frustated because i do not have anything to BLAME (system, resistence, support, TA etc.) IF I SEE SOMETHING I DO SOMETHING (period) Once in the trade, i have been repeating mentally why i enered the trade, because sometimes every new candle seems like it will take me out. SO I keep repeating my hypothesis to myself. I handle EXITS the same way. I see failure (fast rejection or move) of price I get out. Zooming out of the chart also helps to reduce focus from noise in the price. Plus MA is always a guard rail. I am not sure what the exact quote is but this is definately from Jesse Livermores book - TAKING A POSITION IS "KEY", and then ONLY THEN MARKET WILL TELL YOU WHERE IT WANTS TO GO. And you will SEE it. He always took small peice when he saw something or felt it. Hope this helps
Thanks JP Price will, at times, suggest where it will go. Believe what you see, act quickly and watch for signs of price rejection. Something like that ? Despite my lack of profits i've finally come to believe success is not a question of 'if' but 'when'.
I'll post one chart that will perhaps help shame me in to better trading. I get shaken out of good trades too often. 1st trade long exited too soon -1.5 when a small supp area was TESTED. I think i was looking at a smaller time frame chart that probably made it look worse than it was. entry wasn't the best but the trade should have worked; my hard stop would not have been hit. - 3.5 for the day on 3 trades.
Today i'm trying to focus on staying relaxed and focused on PA while in the trade. Also trying to not get shaken out of profitable trades. There were good reasons for exiting my second trade earlier, rev bar at low, 2b buy, but the trend looked steeply down and volatile so i stayed with it. I had MFE on 2nd trade of 9 and probably could have easily exited at +7. Instead i stayed in and ended up exiting at + 2.25. In the past leaving this much on the table would have bothered me but today it doesn't. It does make me again think about multiple cars and sure i'll take another look at it but no worries at least ! My first trade i should have reversed and gone long but i don't like to start the day with the feeling of overtrading . But this would have been a good set up so there's a mental issue there. Hey JP, you're words were in my head on my second entry. OK, i don't remember now exactly what you said but basically trade what you SEE and don't hesitate. I'm happy with the entry as all the PA supported it.
M glad, You did good. If it was a trending day , it would have been a great trade. Don't get me wrong your exit was not less than perfect. Trader has to act like a Boxer, Jabs vs. Big swings. On a day like today, small range, quick reversals, its just you have to revert back to JABS. small size and quick exits. (I never keep targets as such, I am always mindful of levels especially round numbers.Since I can visually see - MA's - when action seems to be reversing, I adjust, and take action). So, at the end my entries are usually based on same REASON, price action (speed, trend, MA, market bias etc) but exits are adjusted based on range and action. IF this was a trending day, you would have stayed under the ma for a longer period and given you chance to adjust stops and targets. Its all good. When you get a chance read this thread i started. I havn't been able to keep the discussion going (been busy at work and with life) http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=213954 The objective is to shake some of the belives - What is harder to do ? and Why ? Gud luck.
Ahhh ! I want the trade back. I want the points ! What was i thinking ? kidding. Have a great weekend traders.
-2.25 on Monday . No trades yesterday +5.25 today so far. Have work to do so won't be watching market for a couple hours. Thought the market had a shot at a nice collapse this morning but wrong again. Maybe this afternoon. The fill on my exit was not where i would have liked. Maybe next time i'll wait for a retrace ? Still keep thinking about 2 contracts. Today would have exited 1 at PP and 2nd still holding maybe. I don't know, just thinking out loud. p.s. Great trading , Sam ! Stay focused and keep it going.
Sold a LOD around 11:40 -2.25 +3 for the day Pretty sure these LOD sells rarely work for me. I'll have to stop taking these and look for better entries.
Entries are getting slightly easier for me to recognize and act on timely. I will always be trying to improve on this but then that's the job of a trader. Exits are my current challenge. I've never liked the idea of profit targets or resting orders to exit but I'm considering everything now. 2 trades this morning +4.25. One more little pop to the upside left in this market and a very nice top will be. (And if i keep saying that one of these times i'll be right)
Re: Exits. Losing trades are usually not much of a problem. Either stopped out or trade fails to soon go my way in which case experience says tighten up the stop. Sort of a price action/time stop. Winning trades i'm not managing well. I figure it's possibly a combination of 1) not having clear enough exit rules and 2) not being in the state of the "quiet mind". 1) I try to exit on PA; reversal bars, TL breaks, S/R etc. Having said that i know from experience that my read of PA is influenced at times by my open profits or how far away i may be from MFE. Profit targets or something more objective may serve me well. This will not be a quick fix and is going to take more time to review. 2) I've read about and known for awhile the concept of the quiet mind. Basically being focused and unemotional. I'm good about this getting into trades but once in i've noticed i slip out of it. (More accurately fall hard out of it.) I flip from chart to chart too much, tapping the foot too much , becoming a little too excited and forgetting to breath. Forgetting to breath ! :eek: I'm pretty sure this is common but it doesn't paint a pretty picture. So the first area i'll be working on is trying stay relaxed and focused in the trade through pre/post-market breathing and relaxation exercises and then try to attain that state while in the trade. Right now i'm not sure when i'll find the time but that's the objective.