Japan's Topix Falls 20% From 2007 High, Signaling Bear Market

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ASusilovic, Nov 21, 2007.

  1. Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan became the first of the world's 10 biggest stock markets to enter a bear market when the Topix index declined 20 percent from its 2007 peak.

    The 39-year-old Topix, the broadest gauge of equity prices in the world's second-largest economy, fell 2.1 percent yesterday to 1,438.72, the lowest since October 2005 and down 20.8 percent from its 2007 high of 1,816.97 on Feb. 26.

    Japanese companies are struggling with slowing economic growth in the U.S., their largest market for exports, the yen's appreciation and record crude oil prices. The Topix decline from a 15-year high in February signals the government's efforts to revive the economy from more than a decade of inconsistent growth, have hit a snag, investors said.

    ``Performance potential is limited by a deteriorating economic outlook, both foreign and domestic,'' said Florence Barjou, Paris-based strategist at Lyxor Asset Management, which oversees $100 billion.


    Anybody interested in Japanese developments or just U.S. centric views prefered ?[/url]:confused:
  2. They "signal" a bear market at the bottom of the price swing, not the top. There ought to be a decent rally up to atleast 1600 from here. We'll see.
  3. On your suggestion, nazzdack, buying Topix ETF! Will keep you informed ! :p
  4. I used to work for Nomura in Japan from 1998 - 2003.

    In my opinion Japan has been in a bear market since 1991!

    A few brief blips up in between.

    Lots of 'false dawns' as they say.

    However NOW is a good time to get in IMHO

  5. Nazz,

    what about the Topix ETF holding ? We keep the long position or do we double ( if you´re in trouble - double ! )...? Need some input...maybe an option strategy ? :p

    Last quote : 1302. 04:11 CET, 21st of January 2008
  6. On Wednesday's close I bought DXJLX (Direxion Japan 2X Bull).

    This market looks way oversold.

    Also, if the emerging markets keep getting hit, I think alot of the Asian money will flock to "relative safety" in Japan.
  7. NIkkei down 3.5%
  8. Suss------Didn't you get out of that in the beginning of December?
  9. Come on nazz ! It wouldn´t be a challenge if I would have liquidated the position ! I prefer some kind of options strategy. As we all know BEN is going to throw some fresh money to the markets and ECB also signaling some economic slowdown. Do you really think, we are entering recession ? If so, we can express our assessment in some kind of strategy.

    But what´s the right one, now ? :)
  10. An option strategy?.........In times like this?.....?.....??......!......I got it!! Try to sell stock index put options for a premium that is larger than the strike price. You can't miss.
    #10     Jan 21, 2008