I am well familiar with the strategies that I know with certainty are working well for me - and I also know the conditions under which they work. That is why I am not trading right now... I am continuously looking, and "testing" some scalps now and then - but today that was only one scalp so far. Thinking there is a strategy out there "that rules them all" is just pure bullshit, as markets are always changing and "counter-adapting" to what you do when interacting/trading them. Just like now - I wanted to see well above 126 on EURJPY or above 98 on USDJPY before getting serious again... or I could venture a short - but that is not the setting I feed off. Like I said in another thread here on the forex forum - I read markets and understand certain conditions - just like "running in a pack of traders". That is why I'm mostly idle now, but when I see a setup - I follow it - however, that setup also involves market conditions. If I went contradictory to what I know - then I would be stupid - or blinded by faith or something. Right now - 19:25 CET - the Euro and Yen seem completely out of any "system of thought" - just volatile.
Who's saying there's a strategy out there "that rules them all" I've said this before, no-one has the monopoly on profitable trading strategies, you can't possibly say someone else shouldn't be trading in these market conditions. Just because you can't/won't doesn't mean everyone has to agree with you and stay sidelined. Some traders are finding this volatility extremely lucrative, obviously you prefer not to trade in these conditions as they're not optimal for your strategy, that's sensible. I'm a scalper who hits the occasional home run but my bread-and-butter is scalping. A few weeks ago I commented on another thread that I don't know how some traders patiently wait for targets 100's of pips away, I couldn't do that. Two totally different strategies but both are making money, where's the problem? I wouldn't call their strategy wrong just the same as I wouldn't expect them to say my approach was wrong, we both make money in different ways is all. Personally I don't care if a trader uses next door's cat as an indicator and swings from the chandeliers as he's placing trades, if he's making money then it can't possibly be wrong, suggesting it is would be 'pure bullshit' in my opinion!
All systems, regardless of abilities to perform in multiple market conditions will have periods of underperformance, ergo rule nothing. Euro and Yen are in obvious downtrends with enhanced volatility, really not that hard to grasp conceptually. If you keep getting fooled by what would under normal market conditions be counter trend move signaling an inflection point, than "your system of thought" should be able to recontextualize the environment in which these moves are happening. Smart move sitting out, however, these are fantastic markets that are as clear as crystal to me and you should refrain from generalizing them as "out of any 'system of thought'" when in fact they only appear to be out of your capabilities.
I am not "counter trend" trading - I just do scalping and have some setups for that. Sometimes I can also get longer term trends in place, but getting the "right size" on the moves is not easy - so some sort of trailing stop would probably do me better there too. We are now seeing easily 200pips shakeouts on the EURJPY - and I don't find that particularly easy to cope with - as there are no particular support or resistance emerging - they all get pierced. I can get really small moves, but that is a lot of "drain and stress" to be trading while being so "jumpy" about trade performance. I don't care for that and prefer trading when I am more sure about how the trade will go. That is simple risk management for me. I'm not blind or oblivious to the repatriation effects and recession, Q3 numbers and forecasts... But I prefer my types of setups, and they do come around again - Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday have just been without these most of these setups so far. I still got a +60pips the other day, and that was pretty good for this market - at least for me.
EURJPY moved 400 pips upwards today through the end of US RTH - and it is starting to seem like things might loosen up a little for the next sessions. Lets see how this Asian session goes...
The vol and liquidity gaps right now are dumb squared - unless you are on the correct side. It is really risky out there.
USD/JPY. I mat have read this on another post, but volatility seems tobe the norm. 20 minutes of 5 pip sideways, then 20 pip stabs. Pretty crazy. I have lost my typing ability, I am not sure what to,make of this, Wide stops? Longer time frames? Sharpen scalping skills? Made 2 trades, down 18, then up 13.