Earthquake will be a tipping point for their economy. They might be tipped back on track with increased rebuilding of their infrastructure. Nothing stimulates an economy like war and natural disaster. Clears out the deadwood and inefficiencies. Or tip them into oblivion as they are completely unable to regain their competitiveness.
Not so fast... AIG / US Govt underwrites a substantial amount of catastrophic bonds in Japan. We are safe if AIG unloaded these assets to a Japanese insurer, if not get ready for AIG bailout #2. Unfortunately this second round will be behind closed doors with little or no transparency.
Looks like FED and wall street (GS) will be back to working weekends like during the crisis before Asian markets open tomorrow evening. I put money on it that president (FED) will release SPR oil before Monday. Expect more FED cash to flow to support markets. p.s. With Japan's nukes out for an extended period they are switching to back up oil and LNG stations. This is what happened last time they had a quake and it took out some nukes. This is bullish for oil prices.
Other forum: The USD will fall 20 percent and Japan is in big trouble.The think tank is now talking if this is going to be the perfect time to let the dollar go. They have someone to blame so it seems so this is an open window to let the dollar do a sudden crash. This will be a disaster greater then the media is allowing out.
in the short term this hurts their economy because entire businesses have to shut down. in the long run, rebuilding cities creates lots of jobs.
Other forum: Next catastrophe be???? Perhaps Japan selling $800 Billion in US Treasury debt that will lead to a bond market meltdown.