Japan Now Ruling The Globe

Discussion in 'Forex' started by gamalruach, Mar 9, 2004.

  1. Yes, it is true. Last week, Japan started setting currency prices for all major currencies.

    Please read (a letter to a friend):

    I suppose you are right, glad we cleared that up. But your being right is not new.

    What is new, and pardon me if I am wrong here, you would know much better than me since you have been trading fx longer (much longer) than I have...

    This USD/JPY deal... kind of a newish type concept, specifically, when I got into the thing I expected the spike to reach maybe its highest level of, mm... high 106, OK? Then tank within an extended period of... 2 to 3 days!

    Contrarily, something else happened, which is not that unusual for the currency markets (something unusual happening) it is just the thing that is unusual ... that is unusual.

    Granted, based on thin air, the USD had a rally of 800 points - ok, acceptable - it should now reverse since the rally was and is still meritless.

    What is new here is this: Japan has suddenly decided to (and is capable of) rule the entire globe of all major currencies by setting the price of the USD and ALL OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES exactly where THEY want them to be.

    Or, is this something they do ongoing whenever they want to?

    Pls don't say it is not happening, it IS happening right now.

    I thought.... that the fx marketplace with its 1.5 to 3 trillion dollars A DAY in exchange was OUT OF THE REACH of price manipulation either by an individual, a bank, or a country!

    Was I mistaken? Was this misrepresented? Because it sure seems that the Japanese are now ruling the globe by setting the USD price AND the yen price and all other prices exactly to their whim target. If it was not so, I would have already been out of this trade with huge profit.


  2. From Bloomberg::

    Asian Banks

    "Central banks outside the U.S., including those of Japan and China, are the largest foreign holders of U.S. government debt. Japan's holdings of Treasuries last year soared 44 percent to $545.2 billion from $378.1 billion. They are up 72 percent from the Dec. 2001 level of $317.9 billion."

    The key to Japan manipulating and setting global currency prices is in the amount of US debt they hold.

    What is supposed to be a free market place of floating currencies is now being 100% controlled by Japan.

    This makes the yen the most powerful currency in the world.

  3. otto


    I love Japan its a great place and the people are wonderful. I really think it will be THE major power in the near future. I have never seen a people with such unity and love for their culture. If only Europe and America could do the same.

    With all those dollars they have I hope they have mercy on america.

  4. Mecro


    Am I the only one that knows about Japan's financial crisis that is boiling?

    I dont want them to collapse, but Japanese banks have been holding Japanese stocks from the height of the Nikkei and still have not closed out the positions.

    Japan is highly leveraged and still in a recession. Don't believe the image, the Japanese are experts at painting false pictures and brainwashing.
  5. Mecro, still you give no factual reference. Only your opinions - which is OK, but you should clarify this.

    The Nikkei is going through the roof! Japan is in FULL recovery - very much UNLIKE the USA with Snow's "mystery" of unemployment. A "mystery" that no one is going to solve because it is rooted and sealed in corporate greed.

    The USA/USD is the only nation/currency with the heaviest global debt right now - and that debt is majority OWNED by Japan, OK?

    Beginning to make more sense?

    Yen is heading to 100.00. USD is continuing to fall. The USD election is in the wings full swing and everyone is just protecting their own currency prices short term with Japan at the top setting trading ranges.

    You can make some money off this structure if you're fast.

    I really don't care: I'll reveal *my* position: I own a single measely Lot of yen at 109.30 long, so, whatever it does really doesn't matter all THAT much - it won't make me or break me - I am just indicating a trend for others to take advantage of along with me either short or longer term.

    Take care,

  6. cable


    The US debt is TRILLIONS. The Chinese especially are a worrisome large holder of US debt (being scary and all); however, all the Johnny Sixpacks out there putting money away for their retirement are holding much more if you add them all up. Japan is still a "minority shareholder" so to speak.

    I'm not sure, but I'm guessing you're holding a losing position and are trying to pump and dump. Japan has hot women, Lost In Translation was excellent, and Karate rocks, but realistically, the more likely conspiracies are found closer to home.

    What makes you think the Japanese are ruling everything? What pattern in the currencies is telling you this? Post some screenshots with explanation. What news? Post some links. Your theory is weak at best without supporting documentation.

    It's been the US government killing their strong dollar policy that's been wreaking havok on the numbers for the last year, not Japan....

    Here's the Foreign numbers. Take Japan's holdings as a percentage of the total debt (by the time I post the number it'll be obsolete, it's rising so fast), and it doesn't scare me as much as it scares you. America just bombs people who call in their loans anyway, so don't panic. Unless you live in Japan.
  7. Economic recovery has sometimes very little to do with currency appreciation, there are many past examples of this.

    All those bullish reasons you cite are the same ones that had speculators buying yen at 120, so your one lot at 109 doesn't really help me want to believe your case :)

    USD weakness, now thats another story that my yet need to play out.
  8. Mecro


    I did the research about a year back, so I really cannot recall. Look it up, it's out there. And yes, I'm sure times have changed from a year ago. But Japan is still a highly leveraged country, if not the highest in the world. And the equity holdings of their banks are still from the height of the Nikkei bubble. They cannot close them out because if they did, huge losses would be attributed, loans called and a financial collapse would begin.

    Also Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries. It is very important to USA that Japan will not liquidate their positions. So there is a lot of work and painting done from both sides to make sure Japan stays solvent.

    The Nikkei is coming back but if you look at the bear market Japan has endured it is way to early to say that they are booming or in a real recovery. But they do have high savings something USA does not.

    I just strongly disagree with the notion that the Yen and Japan are the all time economic superpowers at the moment. Not even close. It's not so peachy over there if you get to the heart of it.

    Long term, whether Japan will be an economic superpower or not is obvious. But at the moment, it's just not kosher with either USA or Japan.
  9. If I lived in Japan I would be more interested in your statement, "Japan has hot women" than being bombed by the USA or devoured by debt there.


    (Hey if you know any scary hot Japanese women looking for a yen holding fx trader send them my way - I can do wonders with their... yen ;) )

  10. and I'd have to say that Mecro is party right.
    Over the past few years several Japanese banks have folded / consolidated. Fortunately the government has stepped in to prevent mass panic.
    There are several reasons for the insolvency of these massive financial institutions, but one BIG reason is the collapse of the real-estate market in Japan. I've been here 10 years and the real-estate market has gone down every year.
    Japanese banks lent out HUGE sums of money to people, often yakuza, during the boom and when the market popped there became no way to get their money or even payments. When the head of Yakuza clan doesn't want to pay, what are you going to do? Ask nicely?
    Japan has been in a recession for 10 years or more, so cyclical analysis would suggest that it is due to start back up. But I'll believe that when I see it. There is still a problem with deflation and the interest rates are still sub 1%.
    A recovery may be just around the corner, but it ain't here yet.

    (and yes the chicks are very hot)
    #10     Mar 9, 2004