Japan Now Ruling Currency Prices

gamalruach · Mar 10, 2004

Quote from Jayford:

Geez. I can't believe you still don't get this.

If Japan controlls currencies, why the hell would you BUY the yen. They want the yen weak! Always have, always will. This is basic econ 101 for export economies. Weaker yen relative to the buck for example, increases exports, and also values those billions held in US debt much higher.

Every time they intervene, its to weaken the yen.

A stronger yen hurts Japan in a serious fashion.

It may keep rising significantly due to fundamental factors, but it will be doing opposite of what Japan wants.

Jay
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Robert Rennie said it. Tell him.

"The aggressive intervention we have seen by Japan and the volatility in dollar-yen has now spilled over to other currency pairs and it's driving everything,'' said Rebecca Patterson, global currency strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in New York.

Rebecca said it too. Tell her.

Sam

Jayford · Mar 10, 2004

Quote from gamalruach:

Robert Rennie said it. Tell him.

"The aggressive intervention we have seen by Japan and the volatility in dollar-yen has now spilled over to other currency pairs and it's driving everything,'' said Rebecca Patterson, global currency strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in New York.

Rebecca said it too. Tell her.

Sam
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Its causing them all to get volitile< its not controlling their levels>

these currencies are all working great on my charts and trading from overbot levels as well treding in nice channels>

If Japan could control levels the yen would be at about a third lower than it is today>

jay

gamalruach · Mar 10, 2004

Quote from Jayford:

Its causing them all to get volitile< its not controlling their levels>

these currencies are all working great on my charts and trading from overbot levels as well treding in nice channels>

If Japan could control levels the yen would be at about a third lower than it is today>

jay
More...

A third lower?

No, because that would seen as them causing a "brutal currency move" that they are prohibited from doing according to G-7, G-10 and G-20 global currency policy that they helped to establish.

Who knows what you are trying to prove here by dissing me and posting against everything I post - at this point it's clear you are making yourself a pest.

You have said nothing precise that would propitiate any valid point.

Maybe you are trying to suck me into a firefight, well, I don't engage in them anymore because all it does is send the opposite side running and whining to the admin here who can do little more than turn off my posting ability - so it's not worth my creaming the abject idiots who lurk around these boards.

Suggestion: go back to your original theme of not posting on my posts anymore.

"This is my last post on this subject. I'm not even reading this thread anymore its so silly."

"Jay"

Don't keep flipflopping like a pancake by your getting confused between technicals and fundamentals, facts and opinions.

Sam

gamalruach · Mar 10, 2004

Quote from trade-ya1:

Jay,

Frankly, I believe that you are both making similar points. I believe that he agrees with you (as do I) that currency intervention by a world central bank is just a temporary measure. This is the reason that he is pointing out and advocating long Yen positions. I can feel his frustration in being long the Yen and not getting any satisfaction (in fact having it go in your face after massive manipulation). I personally have a huge long Yen trade on and I am suffering the pain of the BOJ/MOF. I think this is a big winner nonetheless as your point about intervention being only a temporary measure is well taken. The question is, how long and how deep do we have to wait for the BOJ to stop intervening and allow the $/Yen to move via natural market forces alone.
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trade-ya1: You ALSO have a huge long yen position??? LMAO! We're on the same side!

Why do you think it is a winner?

So tell me, how many units do you have, what is your average price and what is your TP?

I think that one of the reasons (besides Japan global currency price fixing) we are not cleaning up on this mess already is because market sentiment has shifted to pro-USD again. Now it is waiting for US retail numbers to come out tomorrow (Thursday) so they can prolong having to face their huge losses hoping and wishing that a single retail numbers headline will save them.

LOL,

Sam

gamalruach · Mar 10, 2004

Quote from harrytrader:

Comedy of manipulation: A central bank doesn't decide ALONE, the central Banks all over the world are controlled and coordinated by the mother of all central banks: The BIS (Bank of Internal Settlement) in Switzerland.

http://edwardjayepstein.com/archived/moneyclub.htm
Ten times a yearâ once a mouth except in August and Octoberâ a small elite of well dressed men arrives in Basel, Switzerland. Carrying overnight bags and attache cases, they discreetly check into the Euler Hotel, across from the railroad station. They have come to this sleepy city from places as disparate as Tokyo, London, and Washington, D.C., for the regular meeting of the most exclusive, secretive, and powerful supranational club in the world. Each of the dozen or so visiting members has his own office at the club, with secure telephone lines to his home country. The members are fully serviced by a permanent staff of about 300, including chauffeurs, chefs, guards, messengers, translators, stenographers, secretaries, and researchers. Also at their disposal are a brilliant research unit and an ultramodern computer, as well as a secluded country club with tennis courts and a swimming pool, a few kilometers outside Basel.

The membership of this club is restricted to a handful of powerful men who determine daily the interest rate, the availability of credit, and the money supply of the banks in their own countries. They include the governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the German Bundesbank. The club controls a bank with a $40 billion kitty in cash, government securities, and gold that constitutes about one tenth of the world's available foreign exchange. The profits earned just from renting out its hoard of gold (second only to that of Fort Knox in value) are more than sufficient to pay for the expenses of the entire organization. And the unabashed purpose of its elite monthly meetings is to coordinate and, if possible, to control all monetary activities in the industrialized world. The place where this club meets in Basel is a unique financial institution called the Bank for International Settlements-or more simply, and appropriately, the BIS (pronounced "biz" in German).

THE BIS was originally established in May 1930 by bankers and diplomats of Europe and the United States to collect and disburse Germany's World War I reparation payments (hence its name). It was truly an extraordinary arrangement. Although the BIS was organized as a commercial bank with publicly held shares, its immunity from government interference, and even taxation, in both peace and war was guaranteed by an international treaty signed in The Hague in 1930. Although all its depositors are central banks, the BIS has made a profit on every transaction. And because it has been highly profitable, it has required no subsidy or aid from any government.

Since it also provided, in Basel, a safe and convenient repository for the gold holdings of the European central banks, it quickly evolved into the bank for central banks. As the world depression deepened in the Thirties and- financial panics flared up in Austria, Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Germany, the governors in charge of the key central banks feared that the entire global financial system would collapse unless they could closely coordinate their rescue efforts. The obvious meeting spot for this desperately needed coordination was the BIS, where they regularly went anyway to arrange gold swaps and war-damage settlements.

Even though an isolationist Congress officially refused to allow the U.S. Federal Reserve to participate in the BIS, or to accept shares in it (which were instead held in trust by the First National City Bank), the chairman of the Fed quietly slipped over to Basel for important meetings. World monetary policy was evidently too important to leave to national politicians. During World War 11, when the nations, if not their central banks, were belligerents, the BIS continued operating in Basel, though the monthly meetings were temporarily suspended. In 1944, following Czech accusations that the BIS was laundering gold that the Nazis had stolen from occupied Europe, the American government backed a resolution at the Bretton Woods Conference calling for the liquidation of the BIS. The naive idea was that the settlement and monetary-clearing functions it provided could be taken over by the new International Monetary Fund.

What could not be replaced, however, was what existed behind the mask of an international clearing house: a supranational organization for setting and implementing global monetary strategy, which could not be accomplished by a democratic, United Nations-like international agency. The central bankers, not about to let their club be taken from them, quietly snuffed out the American resolution.

...

Occasionally there is an extraordinary situation, such as the decision to sell gold for the Soviet Union, which requires a decision from the "governors," as the BIS staff calls the central bankers. But most of the banking is routine, computerized, and riskless. Indeed, the BIS is prohibited by its statutes from making anything but short-term loans. Most are for thirty days or less that are government guaranteed or backed with gold deposited at the BIS. The profits the BIS receives for essentially turning over the billions of dollars deposited by the central banks amounted to $162 million last year.

As skilled as the BIS may be at all this, the central banks themselves have highly competent staffs capable of investing their deposits. The German Bundesbank, for example, has a superb international trading department and 15,000 employeesâ at least twenty times as many as the BIS staff. Why then do the Bundesbank and the other central banks transfer some $40 billion of deposits to the BIS and thereby permit it to make such a profit?
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Yes, and the last time they met they all (including BOJ) agreed upon "NO BRUTAL CURRENCY MOVES!"

And, the current Japanese price manipulation of the yen is EXACTLY that! That is why the BOJ can no longer weaken the yen - they are prohibited. Therefore the dollar WILL (read should, could, would) slide back down against the yen to 105 or lower.

Good point!

As trade-ya1 points out, this IS a "winner" trade (shorting USD/JPY) - it is just a matter of time. When I originally put this trade on my time frame to TP was a month to two months.

It has been something like 3 weeks now - it just started reversing on Monday and has given up close to 200 points (of the 700 points spike up). I have just been getting impatient.

I have to do some dishes now - all this trading has made me a slob.

Sam

gamalruach · Mar 10, 2004

Quote from Jayford:

Its causing them all to get volitile< its not controlling their levels>

these currencies are all working great on my charts and trading from overbot levels as well treding in nice channels>

If Japan could control levels the yen would be at about a third lower than it is today>

jay
More...

You are reading what you want to read into it, Jayford. They are not saying that. They are indicating that Japan is controlling all currencies and ruling the world now.

Geesh! WHEN are you gunna get your global conspiracy theories in proper perspective??

Personally, I am beginning to think that this is all set up on a global corporate kickback system.

Sam

Jayford · Mar 10, 2004

Quote from gamalruach:

You are reading what you want to read into it, Jayford. They are not saying that. They are indicating that Japan is controlling all currencies and ruling the world now.

Geesh! WHEN are you gunna get your global conspiracy theories in proper perspective??

Personally, I am beginning to think that this is all set up on a global corporate kickback system.

Sam
More...

I give up.

Cutten · Mar 12, 2004

Solution - back month call options

causeiambetta · Mar 13, 2004

what do the charts say?
-m.o.

eternalfuture · Mar 14, 2004

GamalRuach,

A letter 'from a friend', eh?

Here's my opinion about usd/jpy...

Despite recent heavy intervention in usd/jpy, the result is far from what I expected. Hey, we're still below 115.00 here!

Anybody around here who remember the way back then when the BoJ heavily intervened around 120.00? In the end it ain't going up, instead, it plunged to 102.00.

Successful intervention?

However, this time around it's not the same thing. Way back then, the U.S. administration didn't want the buck to be weak. Now, they want the buck to be weak, especially against Asian currencies.

Solo intervention won't succeed. I prefer to stay out of usd/jpy, because it's manipulated.

Holding on short usd/jpy is not good. Holding on long usd/jpy is not good either. Staying away from it is a better choice.

In time, the yen will regain the lost power. Maybe it's book-closing month, so that the yen is deliberately weakened to create a more profitable financial positions for Japanese companies.

We'll see who's going to win a fight.

Sam, just because someone says something, he/she is right. Rennie's opinion may be right, but also may be wrong.

Cheers!