Japan has fallen victim to the Keynesian scam

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Tsing Tao, Aug 21, 2014.

  1. I have travelled more often to Greece than you have travelled to different US states, you muppet. And I have more Greek friends (yes Germans and Greeks can still be friends) than you know Jews. And how much you know about Europe and Greece you proved when you claimed Miami to be the top vacation destination of Europeans. Lol, you made yourself to the laughing stock of a whole continent. Even more Russians travel to fill up on sunshine in Europe than Europeans travel to all of Florida. Dude, please do not make us laugh with your world expertise. Poke your stick into Elizabeth/NJ or Sarasota/FL but please don't ridicule yourself more talking about Japan or Europe.

     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2015
    #381     Sep 23, 2015
  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    LOL! I've been to Greece approximately a dozen or so time, so what? If you've been there more and you have a few Greek friends, that makes you an expert on the country? What a total ass you are! Oh, and there's the obligatory Jew comment from our resident German. That always lends credibility to your blathering.

    There's the desperation again. I made myself the laughing stock of the whole continent? As far as I know, you and D08 are the only ones going on (over and over and over and over) about that. And he gave up long ago when he realized how pointless it was.

    I'll keep talking about Japan, because I choose to. You can keep trolling if you want, but it's easily dealt with by exposing you for the chump you are, Adolf. :)
     
    #382     Sep 23, 2015
  3. of course...because its hilarious... don't hold it against us. Just taking the piss out of a stiff NJ Yank.

     
    #383     Sep 23, 2015
  4. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao



     
    #384     Sep 23, 2015
  5. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Hold it against who? Who is us? You? Maybe you're referring to the Royal We?

    You're pretty much the only one talking about that one comment months ago, mostly because it's the only thing you can fall back on. The rest of "us" are members of the Volpunter Fan Club.
     
    #385     Sep 23, 2015
  6. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Don't worry, world. Volpunter says it was a non-event! Wall Street Journal reporting has nothing on Volpunter!

    Japan Downgrade Fuels Doubts About Abenomics
    Economists increasingly question Shinzo Abe’s growth strategy
    [​IMG]
    By
    Takashi Nakamichi
    Updated Sept. 16, 2015 4:02 p.m. ET

    TOKYO—Two developments suggested Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s strategy to spur sustained growth for Japan is stalling, as the government prepared a new push to revive the economy.

    On Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s downgraded its rating of Japanese government debt, citing weak growth. “Despite showing initial promise,” Mr. Abe’s strategy “will not be able to reverse this deterioration in the next two to three years,” the ratings agency said. It was the third of the three major ratings firms to do so.

    And the Bank of Japan downgraded its forecast for industrial output in the current quarter to “largely flat” as a result of growth slowdowns in China and emerging economies that are weighing on Japan’s exports.

    The latest signs came as doubts over Abenomics, as the Japanese leader’s three-pronged growth strategy is called, are increasingly emerging among economists nearly three years after he took power.

    “The time is not yet ripe for us to declare Abenomics a failure, but we must say we are getting there,” said economist Takuji Okubo of Japan Macro Advisors, a Tokyo economic-analysis firm, who has been supportive of Mr. Abe.

    The Three Arrows of Abenomics
    • Monetary stimulus: The central bank has pumped money into the financial system and expanded purchases of stocks and funds.
    • Fiscal stimulus: The prime minister oversaw a sharp increase in government spending in his first year in office.
    • Structural change: The government is pushing to improve corporate governance and bring more women into the workforce.
    Two figures underscore the urgency. Economists believe Japan will struggle to grow in the current quarter after shrinking 1.3% the previous quarter. And despite unprecedented easing by the Bank of Japan, the leading measure of inflation shows prices are flat, a setback for Mr. Abe’s efforts to eradicate deflation. Low energy prices, while generally good for a big energy importer like Japan, have disrupted the push to generate inflation, Bank of Japan officials say.

    Some benchmarks are much improved over three years. The Nikkei stock average is 80% above where it stood when Mr. Abe took office, even after the recent global stock-market shudder, backed by a sharp rise in corporate profits. Demand for workers is stronger than it has been since the early 1990s, when Japan was entering the long period of stagnation. And the headline figure on prices probably underestimates Mr. Abe’s deflation-fighting efforts because it has been pushed down by a one-time fall in oil prices.

    “Abenomics is still halfway along the road,” Mr. Abe said on Sept. 8 when he was re-elected as ruling-party leader. He said he would work to “deliver a virtuous cycle of a recovering economy to every corner of the country.”

    Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said Tuesday that while China’s slowdown would affect Japan somewhat, he believed China’s leaders would soon take steps to boost the economy and restore stable growth.

    Yet, none of what Mr. Abe calls the “three arrows” of Abenomics seems equipped to pierce through the barriers keeping consumers from spending and companies from investing more.

    The first arrow, monetary stimulus, hasn’t been fired since Oct. 31, 2014, when the Bank of Japan jolted markets by pumping hundreds of billions of dollars in additional money into the financial system and expanding purchases of stocks and real-estate funds.

    The second arrow, fiscal stimulus, has ceased to be a force for growth. After a sharp increase in government spending to stimulate the economy in Mr. Abe’s first year, the budget for the current fiscal year, which ends in March, will reduce overall government spending if it isn’t augmented with an extra budget.

    The third arrow, structural change, has included a drive to improve corporate governance and bring more women into the workforce. While those changes have won praise from foreign investors, Mr. Abe hasn’t recently proposed any major additions to the agenda. There are no signs that bigger changes—such as opening the country more widely to foreign workers—are in the works.

    It is a plight Japan has often faced in the quarter-century since its on-and-off doldrums began—difficulty in emerging from a negative cycle of flat or falling prices, pessimism about a declining population and slow growth.

    “It’s hard to imagine that households would increase spending or companies decide on more investment when the medium- and longer-term prospects remain dark,” said Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, chief economist at trading company Sojitz Corp. ’s research unit.

    While some economists say Mr. Abe could boost confidence by doing more to tackle Japan’s high government debt, those close to the prime minister say such painful steps should wait until the economy fully escapes the 15 years of deflation it experienced before Mr. Abe took over.

    Tokyo intends to keep pressuring companies directly to invest more and give employees bigger raises. In government-business talks this fall, “I want to give companies a kick in the back,” said economy minister Akira Amari.

    For much of the summer, Mr. Abe was occupied with getting parliament to approve one of his cherished ambitions: expanding Japan’s military role overseas and boosting cooperation with the U.S.
     
    #386     Sep 23, 2015
  7. Copy/paste there you go...good job well done. You can now get your well deserved rest see you in a few days

     
    #387     Sep 23, 2015
  8. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    So the WSJ is right? I thought Japan was all clear skies, volly? You promised!
     
    #388     Sep 24, 2015
  9. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    More cut and paste for Volly, showing how awesome Japan is!

    Japan Manufacturing PMI Borders on Contraction as New Export Orders Plunge
    Japan's Manufacturing PMI is still growing, but barely.

    Key Points

    • Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 50.9 (51.7 in August). Operating conditions improve at slower rate.
    • Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 51.4 (51.1 in August). Growth in production little changed from August’s modest pace.

    Markit Comment

    Amy Brownbill, economist at Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "September PMI data pointed to a general slowdown in the expansion of the Japanese manufacturing sector. New order growth moderated, having increased in August at the fastest rate since January. Underpinning the slowdown in total new order growth was a sharp reduction in international demand as new export orders dropped to the greatest extent for 31 months. A number of panelists blamed a fall in sales volumes from China leading to a decrease in new exports. Subsequently, employment levels declined for the first time since March."

    Japan PMI Charts

    [​IMG]

    Treading Water

    Japan is clearly treading water here as 50 is the break-even rate. Right now it looks like China will pull Japan down with it. And what about prices?

    Glad you asked.

    [​IMG]

    Both input and output prices are back in negative territory. Wasn't Abenomics supposed to cure that problem?

    Indeed it was, not that it posed any real problem though. The only problem is going into debt to fight deflation. All you get out of it is more debt.

    Mike "Mish" Shedlock
     
    #389     Sep 24, 2015
  10. If you ever set foot into Japan or had been to Japan recently you would know that economic figures is one thing (after all some hedgies have attempted to short JGBs for close to 1.5 decades now and have been burnt each and every single time. But you would not know that as someone so removed from the market as by your own admission.

    There are some structural changes going on that even take my pessimistic assessment by surprise. Not as much as anyone would want to see but still surprisingly bold given this is Japan. Maybe you do not see that. The biggest issue Japan is battling right now is the high amount of temp workers as percentage of salaried people in Japan. This is a real problem and currently the political elite is too afraid to touch on this issue and go against Japan Corp. This is a real problem and one of the major issues why there are no wage increases or at least not the desired wage increases. In the end it is all econ 101, as long as Joe on the street does not have money in his pocket he won't purchase or take risk.

     
    #390     Sep 24, 2015