I don't know. Wasn't it you who wanted to focus on grammar and not content in the first place? Didn't you get both your undergrad and graduate degree here in the U.S.? We don't have to focus on grammar. I just figured you wanted to since you began the silly behavior in the first place.
Ok, so let me put some specific numbers to it: Over a 5 year rolling window, a currency strength or weakness highly correlates with its respective region's economic health. You can define economic health a million ways, but the correlations should still be respectably high regardless of precise definition. Take an index that comprises housing prices, gdp growth, unemployment, and central bank target interest rates. Of course you could always destroy the whole line of reasoning by requesting a definition of what target interest rate. You will observe that aside the multi-standard-deviation "events" (that are in the single digits over the past 100 years) such correlations are very stable and statistically significant. Now you have material to work with and I am happy to stand corrected. But I am tired of your endless word games and twists just because you are to hard-headed to ever admit someone else might be right.
The nature of typing quickly. Let's focus on what the other person is saying, and not what errors may or may not be inside their text. I accept your apology and offer mine in return.
YEEEHAW, PARDNER!!!!! Now we're getting somewhere... Just so that we're on the same page, would you care to define the weights that would allow me to compute an index or would you be happy for me to use mine (I will use equal weights)? Also, should I use real or nominal GDP growth or are you happy for me to choose one? Finally, are you OK for me to use trade-weighted ccy indices (NEER is easiest)?
Sure feel free to do so and let's see what you get. After all you seem to have tons of free time on your hand. How you hold a hedge fund job and can roam ET the whole day in your timezone and play number games is beyond me but I sense a strong urge on your end to wanting to make up for your exotic rates plunder earlier. Go ahead. Entertain us.
Moar Unmitigated-ness... Bank Of Japan's Plunge Protection Desperation: "May Buy Individual Stocks" Earlier this month, the BoJ surveyed 40 dealers and discovered something shocking: buying the entirety of JGB gross issuance has had a rather dramatic effect on liquidity. In fact, two thirds of the firms who participated reported having “some or a lot” of problems and described bid-asks as “not very tight.” Today, an internal report from the central bank indicates officials are slowly coming to accept the fact that their actions have consequences although as you can see from the following, the fact that the BoJ is literally buying all of the bonds is still low on the list of factors the central bank figures might be negatively affecting liquidity... Via Bloomberg: Impact on market prices from a single trade or breadth of orders in futures and rates on repurchase agreements are among indicators suggesting liquidity has fallen since the autumn of 2014: BOJ report Liquidity may have been affected by sharp drop in long-term yields; short- and medium-term yields becoming negative at about the same time; structural changes in markets; BOJ bond buying; and change in financial regulations, according to BOJ report. We also recently noted that Japan isn’t particularly enamored with the idea that stock prices can sometimes decline and so in order to correct the problem, the BoJ has stepped in two thirds of the time equity markets open lower and brought its balance sheet to bear on any sign of selling pressure thus underwriting an equity rally: Since 2010, The Bank of Japan has 'openly' - no conspiracy theory here - been a buyer of Japanese stock ETFs. Their bravado increased as the years passed and Abe pressured them from their independence to 'show' that his policies were working to the point that in September 2014, The BoJ bought a record amount of Japanese stock ETFs taking its holdings to over 1.5% of the entire market cap, surpassing Nippon Life as the largest individual holder of Japanese stocks. As it turns out, the central bank may now run into the same inconvenience in its efforts to control the stock market that it encountered on the way to monopolizing the JGB market: there’s only so much out there to buy. Here’s more from Bloomberg: BOJ held 3.85t yen ($32.0b) of ETFs at end-2014 and plans to boost these holdings by 3t yen per year; at this pace, the current market value of 11.5t yen in ETFs would be entirely bought by BOJ by end-2017, data compiled by Bloomberg show. You read that correctly — the Bank of Japan will own the entire Japanese ETF market within about 30 months. So with all of the JGBs marked for purchase and with all of the ETFs exhausted, there’s only one place to go next… Given this outlook, BOJ will probably start to purchase individual stocks that comprise JPX-Nikkei Index 400, Kazuhiko Ogata, chief economist for Japan at Credit Agricole in Tokyo, said in an interview on March 18. “Buying stocks would amplify risk-on sentiment in markets, indirectly accelerating yen weakness”; Ogata sees USD/JPY at 130 by year-end, vs 120.22 today. While this might seem problematic from a moral hazard/sanity check prospective, there’s at least one person out there who isn’t concerned... KURODA: DON'T THINK STOCK MARKET OVERHEATING, OVERLY BULLISH KURODA: NO OVERLY BULLISH EXPECTATIONS IN ASSET MARKETS ...and while we’re not sure we agree with that assessment, here’s one point on which we do concur: KURODA: BOJ'S EASING HAVING ITS INTENDED EFFECTS
Abewrongics: Nikkei/USDJPY Tankin' After Terrible Tankan Bad news isn't even good news anymore in Japan. A sushi-boat-load of data this evening show once again that Abenomics is failing dismally. In no particular order... Large Manufacturing Index MISS (lowest in 9 months), Large Manufacturing Outlook BIG MISS, Large Services Outlook MISS, Small Manufacturing Index MISS, Small Manufacturing Outlook BIG MISS, and drum roll please... Tankan Large Industry Capex Outlook crashes to -1.2% (from +8.7%) - the lowest in 2 years (since Abewrongics was unleashed). The response... USDJPY and Nikkei are dumping... So much for unleashing animal spirits... Capex outlook plunges... And bad news is no longer good news in Japan as investors lose faith... Charts: Bloomberg