You're going to have to cut and go on this one, Martin. No one who gets into a debate with this guy ever manages to end up the better for it, much less find common ground. I no longer waste time with discussions involving him. I just taunt him. It's far more enjoyable and gets the same amount accomplished.
you know Martinghoul, you are a slick bastard, that I give you: Each time someone asks you to back up your outlandish claims you start asking back questions and accuse others that they do not get back to you. Let's stick to the facts: You claimed there were big players who shorted at usdjpy 80 levels. I asked you several times who those players are you claimed exit. You evaded to answer and instead shoot back with other questions to never actually stick to a point and arrive at a common understanding. I told you several times that you can fuck off with this attitude, it does not fly with me. You make a claim and if others hold you to it then in most societies and social settings you better back up your claims in response else you will be painted as someone who bends the truth just to make his points. That is how you come across right now. I am waiting for your answer! And shorting at 80 levels would have been a horrible trade, you clearly never traded currencies seriously, probably not even macro themes. Standing to gain 5% in the face of possible intervention or extreme short covering is not a trade any prudent hedge fund manager would undertake. Especially not in size. You can bullshit your way around this as much as you like. In the spirit to answer questions, asked, here my reply: You said "Wait a sec, are you trying to tell me that exchange rates, sovereign bond yields, equity market levels etc accurately predict a country's future GDP growth/consumer wealth/house prices etc? In the longer term and proper context, whatever that actually means..." -> This I never said, nor meant, nor implied. Correlation does not imply predictive power whatsoever.
Finally, I am really relieved. Because you and Martinghoul are champions at lying. You accuse others and when you are held responsible you run like a girl. There are countless, albeit more technical, possibly beyond your comprehension, threads in which I participate and very much add and pull out value. But you two clowns talk bullshit all day long. Martinghoul has put up great posts in the past, and recently he seems to have received a DNA makeover, 2nd Tsingtao version so to speak.
I am sure you're right... I just ain't getting through, it appears. I would be very curious to see if the other members of the forum community think that I am expressing myself with insufficient clarity or maybe that my queries are unreasonable. Maybe it's not volpunter, it's me...
for that you would have to mobilize your troops. Maybe you have some that cheer you at your middle office or ET lemmings like TsingTao.
of course you move on because nobody shorted in size at usdjpy 80 levels at any larger hedge fund as you claimed. You disqualified yourself already, so, time to move on. And you also disqualified yourself with your thread base-claim "QE in Japan is the only thing that can be tried so rather than doing nothing better to try". QE has been tried in Japan for the past 20 years and it failed. Why you want to repeatedly yank your head against the wall like a moron at an insanity home is beyond my comprehension but maybe you find it enjoyable.
In which of my posts did I make any claims about large hedge funds doing anything with USDJPY? Feel free to quote me or even just provide a post number...
Why do you keep on asking me to do your homework? You talked about "people" shorting usdjpy when it traded at 80 levels and even claimed it would have produced a respectable 5% return (Of course only for one with crystal balls who knew the exact bottom around 76 levels). I already told you that it wold have been a stupid trade at horrible risk reward. But rolling back: you used this ridiculous example to counter my claim that currencies long term highly correlate with economic conditions. Rolling back further: You insist on defending QE in japan as a viable solution while the same experiment has already tried uncountable times in Japan but failed. I pointed you to the side effects in Japan by going down the QE path one of which is a currency that is already weakening at an unprecedented speed in a society that is the most dependent on imports among almost any industrialized nation. you have a non functional treasury market and completely unrealistic paper equity market and masses who are chocked by higher food,gasoline, and other retail prices while wages go nowhere. A single news item that Toyota plans to raise wages for its workers means nothing. I was there just a week ago and I have witnessed first hand that for ordinary people the situation is worse now than before QE was started. You read one author who seems in tune with your ideology but other than that you sound rather clueless.
Right, so you still cannot answer a single specific question, even a trivial one from my last post... We have nothing further to discuss.