Very well, if you say so... It's all the same skull... Moreover, I don't "try to cite people". I am citing Richard Koo, who is relatively well-known and is recognised pretty universally as somewhat of an expert on the Japanese experience. If you can find other people/sources who can offer a similarly insightful analysis of Japan, I would love to see those, rather than a discussion about coffee. As to 99% of the finance community agreeing on something, pls don't make me laugh. That's pretty weak sauce... Finally, instead of disagreeing about facts or whatever, why don't you respond to my question(s) and we can then proceed from there?
Well the current situation in Japan just ousted you as an ape. Plus 120 usdjpy, I hope you have your long in place because this baby is gonna go well beyond 140. I say so? No, pretty much every hedge fund trading Japan, and that successfully, else they would not be around, says so. And if you followed currencies in the slightest, price action for months has shown that Japan currently is a one-way-street, the elevator is going down. So, feel free to cling on to another theorist of yours, markets and economic reality are telling an entirely different story. And before you dismiss long-term currency performance as a poor proxy for economic health, you may want to consult statistical facts before dismissing yet another reality. About your questions, you can with all due respect fuck yourself. You have not answered a single question of mine, evaded each one in the slickest imaginable way and now you want to proceed after I answer your question? Please do not make me laugh. P.S. And now Mr hurt Ego trolls around with his typical 5 word diatribes: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/exotics-bookrunner.290010/#post-4095848
Huh? There you go passive/agggressive on me again... Firstly, what does the current USDJPY price action have to do with the discussion we've been having? I mean that's just so totally off piste, I dunno quite what to say... What questions of yours have I not answered? Or does that count as another question that you find offensive?
I simply oust your crap. You troll around and accuse others while you get all your facts wrong: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/exotics-bookrunner.290010/page-2#post-4095864 What the yen currency pairs have to do with this thread? Wow, I am the one who is at a loss for words. You are implying that long-term a currency's strength or weakness has nothing to do with how the market prices future growth in an economy? And we are not talking about QE induced weakness. If anything what you said in the past 27 pages was even remotely true then Nikkei would not be trading at only 19k and every other market metric would be telling a different story. Mate, we are talking about Korea overtaking Japan GDP wise. You are honestly suggesting currency levels, yield levels, equity levels, in the longer term and proper context do not very well reflect the believes by those, who most likely know best, in a country's future prospects? Lost in translation here!!!
What facts did I get wrong? I misinterpreted a part of your post, I apologized. Where is the "fact" in that? You stated something that is factually incorrect. Long-term, a currency's relative strength and all the other things you've mentioned are not determined solely by the mkt pricing of growth of the economy. That is abundantly obvious to anyone who has an even cursory understanding of how mkts work. Secondly, what's long-term? USDJPY traded at 76 in 2012 (with the fwds a lot lower). Does that mean that the mkt then was pricing a different long-term scenario for the Japanese economy? How do you know that the mkt wasn't right then and is right now? Weren't the people who were selling USDJPY at 80 the same "those who likely know best"? Finally, all these market metrics reflecting country's future prospects? Unless you define your elusive terminology of "longer term and proper context", any mkt practitioner would laugh at you.
What facts did I get wrong? I misinterpreted a part of your post, I apologized. Where is the "fact" in that? You stated something that is factually incorrect. Please feel free to inquire with your Barcap buddies, if you actually have any, everyone on the rates site can easily confirm that caps, floors, swaptions, and CMS are traded as part of the exotic rates group. Idiot!!! Long-term, a currency's relative strength and all the other things you've mentioned are not determined solely by the mkt pricing of growth of the economy. That is abundantly obvious to anyone who has an even cursory understanding of how mkts work. then you have apparently not ever run your own data analyses and statistics. No wonder you and Tsingtao talk BS all day and the only sources you quote are rantings of authors to your liking. When I say long-term that is long-term to even out the QE induced cash flows that impact currencies. Visualize the data if regression or correlation analyes are beyond your grasp: The currencies long-term are a perfect barometer of the US health of the economy. Even most of the flight-to-safety as well as "funding currencies" strongly reflect economic market cycles. Secondly, what's long-term? USDJPY traded at 76 in 2012 (with the fwds a lot lower). Does that mean that the mkt then was pricing a different long-term scenario for the Japanese economy? How do you know that the mkt wasn't right then and is right now? Weren't the people who were selling USDJPY at 80 the same "those who likely know best"? Now we start playing word games AGAIN? Good lord!!! Who sold at 80 and runs a large fund and does well long-term? Please educate us Martinghoul, we die to know. You talk out of your ass again. Finally, all these market metrics reflecting country's future prospects? Unless you define your elusive terminology of "longer term and proper context", any mkt practitioner would laugh at you. Omg, choose one, GDP growth, consumer wealth, housing prices. Long term they all correlate very highly with each other, though with slight lags.
So GDP is down YoY for the third quarter, all three quarters had real consumption fall of more than 2%. VAT hike seems like a really dumb idea to me. What's the purpose? Budget balancing? VAT is a lip service to balancing the budget. Increasing the prices? You can as well start rationing the goods and have scarcity-induced inflation.
This is an anonymous Internet thread. Only you seem to be in urgent need to make friends here. At least that's how you come across each time you kiss up to your flirt Martinghoul
No, you don't need to be friends. But you can try to be cordial. You seem to prefer just being a general arrogant ass to everyone on the forum regardless of disagreements. You're certainly welcome to it. But I can't promise not to laugh (at you). You should come on down to the politics forum. That's the behavior welcomed down there.