Japan - Big Picture Time

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Kanzei, Mar 15, 2011.

  1. Kanzei


    People are increasingly thinking for themselves.

    When the Japanese government doubles down and starts getting media to tell people that radiation is good for their complexion, a certain percentage of people will not believe it.

    5%? 10%? Maybe 20%?

    I have to think Sendai is a permanent ghost town at this point. The northern third of the nation perhaps. Many will move south and stay on the island. Others will not feel safe in Japan at all.

    Physicists and meteorologists I trust tell me China Syndrome is on the table here guys.

    We need to stop asking questions about who will win the money printing race between Japan and the Fed... we need to be thinking about a massive migration.

    Where, how fast, and how many Japanese will flee the island, and what is the trade?

    Off the top of my head, long aussie dollar makes sense.
  2. Oh for the days when people thought for you!

    I am so sorry for the Japanese people. They have been mired in a decade of no growth now this. Could this be their " bottom " I hope so. Hope for the future is what is lacking now with the older Japanese, perhaps a brain drain will ensue and hundreds of scientists will come to America but what of the middle aged close to retired Japanese man what does he have to live for?

    Lets hope a great rebuild happens one that includes ocean power.
    OCEAN POWER TECH (OPTT) or perhaps solar you know the names,( JKS) Construction. Will Shaw grp bounce? What of Nintendo? At $33 that's a LT buy for me. I have ten grand to invest for my son's education and I'm thinking something Japanese perhaps paired with something else.

    What of our markets? I bought DIOD today. Love the chart watched it behave during the pull back and bought large 3% ago. I day traded PPO-- that's easy pickins but I am close to getting back into ASHLAND. Another chart still very much intact. (see my post Ashland)- I owe you all one on DIOD-- I'm always very busy around NFL draft time.

    I noticed today XIDE reacted very well. This is a name to explore tomorrow. Batteries are in. I have recently bought LYB & MELI by the way. Down on MELI but I'm a big believer in BRAZIL now. The newest inflation numbers qtr over qtr were back in line down Brazil way but no one noticed. As long as the economic pick up continues worldwide ex Japan, Brazil and MELI should preform very well from here.

    EMC is very strong. Right place right time for what they do. I don't own the name.
    NVMI Nova Inst is a stk I'm riding down but believe in. When tablet hype comes back so will this name from Israel.

    I am watching SNCR carefully! These are the names I am working now.

    Hang in there. The type of radiation being released dissipates fairly quickly and it's blowing to sea. Lets pump an ocean's worth of cold water on those pipes and get this situation under control. I wouldn't go Ausie dollar when most are pairing the US against that...

    The big story is America is one of the only markets up above it's 200 day average and the only market to play... it's a worldwide private party on our exchanges for now. Lets resume the rally. ~ stoney
  3. Arjun1


    I don't see capitulation until we sell off hard all day long all the way into the close.
    So far we've seen aggressive buying off the intraday lows for three days in a row - that's a sign of confidence, not capitulation.
  4. Arjun1


    TAN and FAN
  5. I don't understand what you are getting at there-- you want some panic sell off to get in? In an up market? You'll get a rolling change over of sectors perhaps but you'd better be in there chipping away. I think the argument is that the Fed has increased money supply so therefore our market is up a bit when others are not as fortunate. The premise being that when the spigget is turned off we will plunge to that 200 day on the S&P.
    If that happens it's a summer story why waste energy on the topic now? Current events only ensure longer low interest rates even as things pick up dramatically. You get a feel for these recessions my mother has some friends in real estate and auctions and stuff-- the Fed is not the only source of income for this country that has been turned on the last few months... in general the feeling is one of strong recovery with lagging jobs to kick in a rapid run up and then inflation... all of this radiation panic is unexpected and therefore scary. I think Big Ben B is going to do a near perfect hand off and he will allow the economy to crank a bit more than usual... Like a special massage for a 47th birthday... a little inflation is a good thing... I just hope I can refinance my second mortgage this year! In a few years-- when that re adjusts I'm screwed!

    Couple other names I'm on the fence with but almost there.~stoney




  6. Agreed X 100
  7. piezoe


    Stoney, just to let you know I always enjoy your sensible and informative posts. Thanks.
  8. When you say China Syndrome, is that the theory that the radiation will go through the center of the earth and reach NY?
  9. Once the yen goes to new all time highs again, then you can look to short it for fundamental reasons. Until then sit tight or you could get squeezed very hard..
  10. Run...watch the 1:49 mark...I think he made it

    <object width="450" height="370"><param name="movie" value="http://www.liveleak.com/e/027_1300214407"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.liveleak.com/e/027_1300214407" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" allowscriptaccess="always" width="450" height="370"></embed></object>
    #10     Mar 15, 2011