Candle, I have to agree with you, and I think that it is good coaching advice. Everyone goes through a drawdown, and it can play havoc on a traders confidence, and make things much worse than they are. It is amazing how fragile our "trader ego" can be... IMHO, _PART_ of hitmans growth as a trader will be to learn to trust his methods, and what he is gowing through right now is a natural part of any traders' journey. However, and I say this very cautiously, because I only know him through his posts, hitman _APPEARS_ to need to become as slightly more "dimensional" trader. When he chooses to add more tools to his toolbox, and whether this should be done in bad times versus good times, when his confidence is high/low, is an intertesting question. I can think of arguments on both sides... I agree though, that hitman should not be secod guessing himslef. When you were as profitable as he was, in a period as difficult as last year was, is counter productive... nitro "When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."
the time to add new moves to your game is not when you are in a slump.. when you are in a slump you practive free throws and layups.. not a spinning, off-balance, one handed shot 3 feet out from the 3-point line.. hitman, youll get your mojo back.. go back to the basics and take some easy shots.. it will all come back to you.. dont worry.. -qwik
Hitman, Just a few words of support: I've truly enjoyed your journals. Before I became a systematic trader I sometimes had the same "question everything" that I sense in your post. Didn't you write a 30 page manual for new traders ? How about going back to basics and follow your methodology? All methodologies have good times and bad times. Since you seem to have an edge based on last years trading, why not just continue according to plan? You shouldn't invent stuff on the fly under pressure ... that's how money is lost. Good luck !
I haven't gave back profit like this in a long time. Almost any time I am up I can just hold on to it and lock it in. Today was the exception as I lost 4 out of 7 games to start 2002 and in serious danger of missing that all important pay day (getting a $100 check at this point will be a huge psychological edge). 4 games left and I really need to string together a few wins and put myself in a better frame of mind for next pay period. Unless the market substantially improves, 2002 will probably be an even tougher year than 2001. Unlike 2001, there is no bonus months like Jan->April, nearly everyone at my firm is sweating it out, including some of the most consistent traders I know. Survival is the word of the day here. I still believe I have an excellent chance to beat my 2001 numbers, but I must be a lot quicker on defense and reduce my expectations. There will be major opportunities down the road, and I have to play hard defense until then. 17100 shares each way on 10 of 20 shooting, +403 before commissions, -36 after, 1 bullet. Very bone headed mistakes and I should have most definitely scored something today as plenty of opportunities were on the table. Pre-Market: I could not get my calculations done in time and I did not do the gap-fill strategy. However, given the tape action I probably would have made 20 cents on two and out for flat or 5 cents loss on the other two. I know paper trading doesn't mean anything but let's just say I left more than enough margin for error in there. Encouraging, but we will see what happens. Weaker crude oil price but sector upgrade and I knew it will be choppy as hell. Positive earnings news from LEN. Railroad downgrades. 9:30: Watched CSX for a potential bullet but market was strong and I passed. BTK strength took DNA for 30 cents. Got SPF for a quarter, LEN on a pullback for 30 cents, MDC for flat, on home builder strength. Took MXT on Financials strength and I was in the money for a quarter immediately, then he stopped me out for a 20 cents loss as there was no BID whatsoever and as soon as he broke the figure stop he gave me a really bad print. Chased LM on XBD strength and lost 15 cents. 9:45: The biggest mistake of the day was missing out on the energy reversal, I had HP and I scored just 10 cents and did not hit any of the gas stocks. Very poor execution there. Caught ELN rebound on DRG strength and got 40 cents for my best trade of the day, it consolidated and I missed the second leg. Bulleted DHI and the stock was really weak, got a few scalps out of him and got my bullet cost back plus pocket change. 11:00: All I can say is, what hell happened to my composure? I was up $450, my best day of 2002 (wasn't much, but it was the dead zone) I saw RLX popping and I took just 500 shares S. I was in the money by 10 cents and I eventually added KSS, WMT, TGT, FD for a full basket. I really thought futures looked strong and RLX would hold after what I thought was a pullback. Held and lost 60 cents on KSS (just 400 shares, but still hurts!), lost 10-20 cents on all others. Ouch, that's all I can say. I was flattened, literally. 2:00: Took some HP and didn't think it was a real move on OSX, well, it was, and I got out flat on HP but took 20 cents a piece on GSF and DO. Churned some EOG and got a few more chunks out of DHI. I was up $130 with 10 minutes left to go. 3:50: Took a lazy bottom pick on CCU, no telling how much selling is left and I just tossed 500 shares at it, boom, lost 20 cents. What hell was I trying to do? Make ten more dollars? The day was over and that $100 anchor was important to me.
First of all, we are not talking about a huge change here. It is merely, a warm up routine for the open. Chances are by 9:45 I will be out of those positions and I will go into whatever strategy I have. Secondly, it is a huge mistake to not look for new strategies, you never know when your current strategy will stop working (for example the death of CEX killed a bread and butter sector for me, while I don't have to trade it everyday, on days that it does give you a lift it is very very helpful). And I play gap-fills all the times, this is really nothing new and I know exactly what to do on gap situations. Just that instead of having to pick a direction first 5 minutes of the game now I have something else to lean on. And it is not that risky, I removed all stocks above $60 and with the liquidity of those stocks, it should not break my day. I am used to trading 4-6 positions at a time and with tight stops it can't really hurt me. If it doesn't bounce immediately I am out. It is very wrong to look at down drawns as natural pullbacks. After a down day I know every single mistake I made and I try very hard not to make them again. As a discretionary trader I can always find little things to improve my overall game, and small changes go a long way.
I only did one trade today, since I was away for the first half of the day... I shorted 2000 QQQ on the breakdown, towards the end of the day and booked 0.73 points... commissions were a very small percentage of total profits.
Quit making EXCUSES!!!!!!!!! it IS, what it IS! the beginning of a down down downward spiral. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! hehe!