January Trading Journals

Be fair, Hitman is showing bravery by posting his trades here EVERY day.

 

Hitman,

I have been watching this thread with interest. In one of
the earlier posts, you prompted yourself with the following
advice:

--- start quote---
> Last night instead of going through 250 charts a night I cut it
> down to 100, just a pool of stocks I actually trade regularly.
> Having too many stocks on my watch list doesn't help at all.

> Also eventually I will probably stop trading anything that
> averages more than a million share a day, I just feel my tape
> game is a lot stronger in thinner stocks, as a buyer or seller is
> a lot easier to spot in them, and they move a lot more when
> the volume is weaker. Without all the day traders in the world
> jumping in and out of them I just seem to get a much easier
> ride in those.

>I need to narrow down my focus further and start to do the
> nightly charts on only the stuff I trade, and be very selective
> about adding new stocks to my pool.

---- end quote ----

From reviewing your posts, I believe that it may be best to settle
down on a more disciplined plan that involves a much smaller list
of equities. My advice is as follows:

1. Decide what exact setups / timeframes you wish to trade.
Create a list that describes these.
2. Screen a list of stocks for key candidates that show these type
of tradeable patterns consistently in the last six months. Use
volume, float. average range, etc. as input into this equation.
3. Finalize on a list of no more than 12 stocks that will be the
key items you will trade. Understand their fundamentals and
relation to their sectors/competitors.
4. Focus only on trading these stocks. 90% of your trades should
be in your bread & butter basket of these stocks. Create a plan
every morning before the open of the key support/resistance
levels of these stocks and the proposed plan / triggers for
these stocks during the day (eg. if ??? hits 38 support &
reverses then go long if the sector/averages are rising, etc.)

From your posted log, it appears that you are currently trading:
- without a disciplined daily plan (be a sniper vrs. the plan)
- across many equities and sectors.
- sometimes are left with questions on why a trade was taken.
- without a set system are judging each trade at the end of the
day.
- are driven by pre-market sector news to select trades.

If you narrow your focus to set set list and become successful
in these items and then increase for breath & scope it may
enhance your win ratio.

I would like to thank you for posting your summary. I believe
that it is helpful to other traders to see the results / struggles
of folks trading the market.

I hope some of my feedback is useful and that you have
a greatly improved year in trading beyond January...

Best Regards,

- Greg

 

gwb-trading----Excellent post, though I doubt Hitman will use most of your recommendations particularly in the area of fundamentals. It's refreshing that someone recommends understanding a company's fundamentals before they enter a trade. Bravo GWB.

 

There won't be a better game for a struggling trader than today, and this is the kind of game you have to score big on. Yet once again I struggled and did not have a single bullet up until 11AM, and had to barely (and I mean it) squeeze into the black in closing seconds.

With two games left, all I can say is, right now, I am not a legit contender, I truly feel like a newbie with the way I have traded and my numbers YTD are nothing short of embarrassing.

Mrs F, after blew a solid start and down as much as 1K earlier in the month, now beat her last January's numbers with a 8K monster game today, for a total of 15K YTD. Two great bullets (and it was like shooting ducks in a barrel today), held for 2 points a piece, smooth ride.

Ok, so I said I won't be putting up any bullets for a while yesterday. The best performing trader on my team, the only one positive YTD, the master of bottom picks, is up close to $3000, trading just 500-700 share positions, GOING ONLY LONG!!!!!!!!!!!

And my stats for the day, 9400 shares each way on 5 of 12 shooting, +339 before commissions, +$4.48 after, 2 bullets.

For my entire career I have never been able to hold a full position for 1 point as long as there is at least a quarter point wiggle. This, coupled with poor shooting this month, is holding me scoreless, as my ability to come back from bad open's is about zero.

My confidence is so shot that I was actually thankful that I didn't lose money on a day like this, and this is only my second back-to-back win of the month.

No major surgery is needed, a look at the past a few games I definitely had the right ideas, I went for the gap-and-trap of OSX on Friday, churned, Monday I didn't do it and it tanked silky smooth, I went for the home builder gap-and-trap two straight games and churned two straight games, I can almost bet that I wouldn't be shorting it the day it finally collapses.

Basically, any time I think of something and I do it, chances are it will be a choppy. When I think of something and I pass it up, it works wonders. It has been incredibly frustrating but it is part of the game.

SHUT UP AND PLAY. There is no other solution at this point.

Pre-Market: DHI beat earnings.

9:30: Took just 300 shares of LEN as I have seen those stocks ran up off the open too often, I know the sector was overbought and I was looking for a Tony Oz reversal. Brokers were strong and I went long MWD and stopped out for 15 cents, not the kind of stock I should be trading when I haven't been hot. I had to ask myself which way energy stocks will go and I went long on an oil reversal, made money in WFT but lost in DO/GSF, ended up losing just under $100 there. No big deal, but the wrong biase cost me the incredible XNG sell-off.

10:00: Consumer confidence numbers came out and market tanked promptly. No problem, I swear I have seen this script so many times, market tanks then bam retraces and chops . . . Only this time it ran a HARD sell-off and that definitely caught me off guard. I took a tiny long position in NSM when futures went to support level and got out immediately as the market fell. I had a choice of going short or staying put, I chose to stay on the sideline and there the big sell-off started . . . I took a very small short position in SPF and of course home builders were strong as rocks and I got just a quarter out. A small short position on PX and he broke out right before he tanked it. Was very upset and bulleted DHI and lost money after commissions as usual. I was trading so light and mentally I tapped out when Dow hit -150 and I said there is no way I am going to make significant money today, I didn't want to chase any shorts and bam it went down another 100 points.

1:30: Came back from lunch and my squad caught a big move in PNC (bought after the halt and it squeezed 3 points). I was so desperate I put up a bullet on it, I tried to short it at first around 57 and he squeezed me out to 57.3. Sold again at 56.80 and held for a 90 cents move with a tight stop. Of course this type of trading is totally foreign to me, my lack of pain tolerance makes it impossible to trade news stocks like the MVP on the squad does, I only did 200 shares and I ended up making very little after commissions. This is clearly not something I want to add to my game right now, as I have been totally out of my comfort zone.

3:00: Went short DHI again when I saw CTX came in hard, went long in CTX and got 30 cents when it bounced to hedge my risk, ended up losing 15 cents in DHI, of course both ran up into the close as the home builders would not give in today in the face of a 250 point sell-off.

Tommorrow I won't be shorting them, I think I will miss yet another big move but I am tapping out on those for now, at least from the short side.

 

up $4.48...gee i am so glad i'm not a "professional" :-D

 

GWB:

I have to agree that I have been too diversified on stocks and I have absolutely no go-to stock to speak of. This is a weakness I must address.

Brandon:

At the highest level of the intraday game (at least at my firm), a "losing streak" is more like making substantially less money than you usually do, not going score-less and definitely not down.

Until a trader becomes fully matured, losing streak will hurt, and those reading my journal, inspiring to become good traders, will get a up-close look of what it is like to do this full time.

While I do not consider myself a spectacular rookie, I have to say I am at least the average, or as you would call the measuring stick for people with my level of experience. I do not have big up day's nor big down day's so one hit wonders are nearly non-existent in my book, I will have my streaks but even this year I have been up before commissions 85% of the times.

In other word, until you become top tier, you will experience the same thing, and I have had people from Goldman's making six figures a year asking me what it is all about, and I point them to my journal. Yes, there is a chance you will do substantially better, but I think it is safe to say that is not something you should expect first year into the game, and you really have to ask yourself do I want to give up a steady income to pursue something that has the odds stacked against you from the get-go.

It is irresponsible to talk about the winning streaks, the glory, the raw excitements, and hide the losing streaks, the bitter taste in my mouth after a bad game, the pain, the agony . . . I want every brand new trader to know all about this before they hop on, our firm and myself for that matter offer nothing more than an opportunity, it is not a job, and 50% of the people will never ever see a dime from us.

Yes, our firm is net positive (thanks to today) for the year. Yes, we had 12 seven digit performers last year, 6 of them hit double millions. Yes, there are many six figure performers. Yes, it CAN happen to you.

Doesn't mean it will, and even if it does, believe me, you would have earned it. The number two trader in my firm made a combined 10K his entire first year. One of the most consistent traders at my firm, had mid-six figures last year, made maybe 20K entire 1999 when everyone and their mother made a killing. And those are the good stories, ones with a happy ending at least.

No pain, no gain, it truly is one of, if not the hardest way to make a living, yes, it is the type of living everyone would love to have when you do make it, but will you?

Last but not least, if I can not handle the raining rocks from this message board, how can I possibly face my team every morning? Fortunately everyone on my squad has shown a high level of understanding (at least on the surface), but I do have to turn this thing around, FAST . . .

 

I have been reading Hitmans posts for awhile and it seems like everyday is gambling. Bouncing from stock to stock and sector to sector, trying to guess what sector one will do when sector 2,3,and 4 does something else. Seems like you spend all day trying to find something to trade, then hope that it will actually move again the way you hope.
Scalping looks better after I read this stuff. You only watch a stock, learn the dang thing, and react to what is going on in front of you. Watch the players in it, watch the futures, and read the level 2.
Good luck to you position traders. If you can make money you sure deserve it because you have to put a lot of work into your trading. Postion trading to me sounds like school, lots of homework.
Good luck all, and I hope you pull your month out Hitman.

 

I was actually lucky to be up $5 today, when I put up that PNC bullet I knew I was losing it. At the end of the day I actually went in a little bigger than I did in the morning (from 300-500 to 500-700), and that could handed me a substantial loss.

 

Brandon--------I don't think you realize something. Hitman uses his daily trading journal to recruit new members. In a nutshell this Piker is getting free I repeat free advertising. He has recruited several people using this mode of advertising.