While the fact that my best game of the month is $700 doesn't give me much bragging rights, it couldn't came at a better time as I was able to cut the deficit to just under triple digits with this win. Finally I got some production out of chemicals, a bread and butter sector for me, as I haven't done so in a long time. Last night instead of going through 250 charts a night I cut it down to 100, just a pool of stocks I actually trade regularly. Having too many stocks on my watch list doesn't help at all. Also eventually I will probably stop trading anything that averages more than a million share a day, I just feel my tape game is a lot stronger in thinner stocks, as a buyer or seller is a lot easier to spot in them, and they move a lot more when the volume is weaker. Without all the day traders in the world jumping in and out of them I just seem to get a much easier ride in those. 7900 shares each way on 9 of 12 shooting, +877 before commissions, +700 after, no bullets. Pre-Market: DD beat earnings, further positive news from the home builder sector. 9:30: Went on a shopping spree on SPF, MDC, but only got 100 shares filled on MDC and made half a point from it, got just 300 shares filled on SPF and I was in the money by half a point and it was the only home builder to crap out and stayed that way as I ended up with nothing. Missed the late day rally as it went up again of course. Got UAL for just 20 cents on XAL strength. My biggest winners were LAB and PPG, LAB gapped down for no reasons with the financials ripping it was too easy as no real seller was present, got 60 cents there. Took PPG for half a point. Tried AMD on a gap-fill and got just 10 cents. 10:30: Tried FMC on a follow through move which failed and I bailed for flat. 11:30: Tried LXK bottom pick and lost 20 cents (very bad trade, there was a relentless seller in that stock today). Tried CRA/DNA on BTK rally and broke even. 12:30: Missed the energy moves again, I couldn't believe how much they rallied yesterday and it did it again today, tried KMI and it wouldn't move, chased EOG and out for flat. I need to narrow down my focus further and start to do the nightly charts on only the stuff I trade, and be very selective about adding new stocks to my pool. With five games left I can see myself go on a quick run to close the month out in black, which will be decent psychological anchor for next month.
Hitman, you might consider defining some mechanical rules and run nightly scans on a large basket of stocks to generate a list of stocks that fall into your preferred profile. For example, scan for thresholds based on momentum, volatility, new highs/lows, volume patterns, overbought/oversold, etc. I'm not suggesting a scan for a specific setup ala Tony Oz scanner, but instead a quick way to scan through hundreds of stocks displaying a certain profile.
I would agree that a buyer is easier to spot in thin stocks... but do you not find thinner stocks somewhat more risky, in that an unexpected player in size may cause you to stop out for a multiple of what you had in mind, dropping the price by a devastating %'age ?
Since you play sectors......why don't you look at sector indices to get the feel of the trend or like I do, which ones are oversold or overbought.This will save you alot of time .When you see a sector that meets your criteria than go look at stocks in that group.Also, by getting a good feel for the big picture of sector groups(up or down trend ,o/s or o/b on daily charts)you will have quicker and better reactionary skills because you did your homework already on the group.It takes too much time to go thru 100 or so charts each nite , I know because I use to do it .
Hitman, I wonder if it is possible to correlate Worldco's trading results with market volatility, daily range or the VIX? I would think that most of us do much better in a volatile market, but you play such a defensive game, maybe you prefer a flatter market. If there is some meaningful correlation however, it suggests that your team or firm's results could be enhanced by adapting your style or size to the market's current characteristics.
I definately like thinner stocks -- something that trades maybe 400,000 to no more than maybe 1.5 million shares per day. They are MUCH easier to read, at least for me. On the "thicker" stocks, you can't look at the tape as much, and have to focus more on charts, it seems.
Yet another loss, for some reason I can not play at a level about .500 this month, I haven't got any consistent scoring from any sectors and it is very hard to be consistent that way. 23100 shares each way on 6 of 18 shooting, +325 before commissions, -234 after. For some strange reason, every time I tried to make a run, something goes wrong, my defense prevented a blown out, but one horrendous fill in the morning really ruined my game. Over the weekend I will tweak my watch list. I have some stuff on there that I don't trade anymore, gotta keep it lean so I can focus myself on a narrower group of stocks. I have to trade chemicals more often, again they provided incredibly opportunities today and again I missed them, I must re-establish my go-to groups. I need a winning streak, I have had zero rebounds on afternoon's. Whatever deficit I get in the morning, even if it is just -$300, usually stays that way after many more thousands of shares churned away. Almost feels like the entire month, every time I feel I get closer, a loss puts me deeper into the hole. A $1200 is not the kind of deficit that will make me search for a new career, but it is the kind of deficit that has been keeping me down since the New Year. 4 games left, I must make a run. Pre-Market: Another upgrade on one of the small cap chemicals, slightly positive tone on energy news. 9:30: I thought LM and BJ had very negative 30 minute charts so I shorted some off the open print, out of BJ for flat but lost 20 cents in LM. Brokers finished weak yesterday but today they just ran and ran which really caught me off guard. Energy gapped up again and I had a very tough choice to make, the daily's look awesome but the stocks are overbought, took EOG on a poorly rushed shot and lost 15 cents as I was shaken out near the intraday low. A little more patience I would have saw that there was no seller in the stock just a lame shakeout. What hurted was I saw BJS gapping up and a 100K offer stepped down, I went bullet on him and I had my stop on the offer. He hit the offer for what seemed to be an eternity and he would not fill my stop. I was filled 30 cents higher and on a full 1000 lot and the fact I had no winners up to this point blew the game open. 10:00: Fortunately I immediately went long on a few energy stocks as I saw the strength of the sector and got 30 cents on DO, 20 cents on RIG. Also had EP which I lost 10 cents on as the stock collapsed. Was in the money with KMI for 30 cents and all of a sudden it collapsed on me and I got out for flat, later in the day he went down another leg and I thought the seller was done and went long and lost another 10 cents. Some really vicious seller in that thing. I almost tied the game after a horrendous open but I was in a $300 deficit when everything was cleared. It shouldn't be an intimidating deficit, but with the summer like afternoons I have had zero luck with come back attempts. I need a go-to stock or two for afternoon trading. Shorted HP as the stock was very weak and got 20 cents, shorted BJS on the way down and got 15 cents as energy came back in. 11:30: Home builders rally, I had a lot of choices but I missed a golden opportunity in DHR, took PHM/LEN/SPF/JEC instead and got 20 cents on PHM, broke even on other three. This was another overbought sector and I was very nervous as I didn't believe it would go up. 2:30: Went long energy again for a final hour rally, had NOI/SGY/HP and while I scored 20 cents on HP I was flat from other two. I really couldn't believe how strong the sector has been last 3 games, I really should have had a lot more profit to show for it, a big, big missed opportunity. I had legit concerns about the overbought condition today but yesterday I should have made a killing on XNG. Tried a SPY short on double top and stopped out for 10 cents loss and watched futures coming in. I can never trade stuff without tape and I probably won't try again. 3:30: Profit taking on OSX, got a quarter from my BJS bullet but left another quarter on the table which could have made me (almost) flat if I was a little bit more aggressive, but a loss is a loss and I have to play better on Monday. Looks like the best I can hope for is a break even January, sure hope I can get some production from the next 11 months . . .