Jamie Dimon a Hurricane is coming

Discussion in 'Economics' started by easymon1, Jun 1, 2022.

  1. %%
    OK;
    but that price includes tax + '' TECHRON'':D:D
     
    #51     Jun 7, 2022
    ElCubano and VicBee like this.
  2. %%
    MAYBE right on US debt, assume they don't lie about it like so much , like they do so much??
    Evil empire debt has a much greater risk, espececally since AUG 1998 , wasnt it?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
     
    #52     Jun 7, 2022
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    upload_2022-6-7_18-18-35.jpeg

    https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/02/11/ChiodoOwyang.pdf

    From the St. Louis Fed---

    "A Case Study of a
    Currency Crisis: The
    Russian Default of 1998
    Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael T. Owyang
    A currency crisis can be defined as a specula-
    tive attack on a country’s currency that can
    result in a forced devaluation and possible
    debt default. One example of a currency crisis
    occurred in Russia in 1998 and led to the devaluation
    of the ruble and the default on public and private
    debt.1Currency crises such as Russia’s are often
    thought to emerge from a variety of economic condi-
    tions, such as large deficits and low foreign reserves.
    They sometimes appear to be triggered by similar
    crises nearby, although the spillover from these con-
    tagious crises does not infect all neighboring econ-
    omies—only those vulnerable to a crisis themselves.
    In this paper, we examine the conditions under
    which an economy can become vulnerable to a
    currency crisis. We review three models of currency
    crises, paying particular attention to the events lead-
    ing up to a speculative attack, including expectations
    of possible fiscal and monetary responses to impend-
    ing crises. Specifically, we discuss the symptoms
    exhibited by Russia prior to the devaluation of the
    ruble. In addition, we review the measures that were
    undertaken to avoid the crisis and explain why those
    steps may have, in fact, hastened the devaluation.
    The following section reviews the three genera-
    tions of currency crisis models and summarizes the
    conditions under which a country becomes vulner-
    able to speculative attack. The third section examines
    the events preceding the Russian default of 1998 in
    the context of a currency crisis. The fourth section
    applies the aforementioned models to the Russian
    crisis.
    CURRENCY CRISES: WHAT DOES
    MACROECONOMIC THEORY SUGGEST?
    A currency crisis is defined as a speculative
    attack on country A’s currency, brought about by
    agents attempting to alter their portfolio by buying
    another currency with the currency of country A.2
    This might occur because investors fear that the
    government will finance its high prospective deficit
    through seigniorage (printing money) or attempt to
    reduce its nonindexed debt (debt indexed to neither
    another currency nor inflation) through devaluation.
    A devaluation occurs when there is market pres-
    sure to increase the exchange rate (as measured by
    domestic currency over foreign currency) because
    the country either cannot or will not bear the cost
    of supporting its currency. In order to maintain a
    lower exchange rate peg, the central bank must buy
    up its currency with foreign reserves. If the central
    bank’s foreign reserves are depleted, the government
    must allow the exchange rate to float up—a devalu-
    ation of the currency. This causes domestic goods
    and services to become cheaper relative to foreign
    goods and services. The devaluation associated with
    a successful speculative attack can cause a decrease
    in output, possible inflation, and a disruption in
    both domestic and foreign financial markets.3
    The standard macroeconomic framework
    applied by Fleming (1962) and Mundell (1963) to
    international issues is unable to explain currency
    crises. In this framework with perfect capital mobil-
    ity, a fixed exchange rate regime results in capital
    flight when the central bank lowers interest rates
    and results in capital inflows when the central bank
    raises interest rates. Consequently, the efforts of the
    monetary authority to change the interest rate are
    undone by the private sector. In a flexible exchange
    rate regime, the central bank does not intervene in
    the foreign exchange market and all balance of pay-
    ment surpluses or deficits must be financed by
    private capital outflows or inflows, respectively.
    The need to explain the symptoms and remedies
    of a currency crisis has spawned a number of models
    designed to incorporate fiscal deficits, expectations,
    and financial markets into models with purchasing
    power parity. These models can be grouped into
    three generations, each of which is intended to
    explain specific aspects that lead to a currency crisis.
    1Kharas, Pinto, and Ulatov (2001) provide a history from a fundamentals-
    based perspective, focusing on taxes and public debt issues. We
    endeavor to incorporate a role for monetary policy.
    2The speculative attack need not be successful to be dubbed a currency
    crisis.
    3Burnside, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo (2001) show that the government
    has at its disposal a number of mechanisms to finance the fiscal costs
    of the devaluation. Which policy is chosen determines the inflationary
    effect of the currency crisis.

    Abbigail J. Chiodo is a senior research associate and Michael T. Owyang
    is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The authors
    thank Steven Holland, Eric Blankmeyer, John Lewis, and Rebecca
    Beard for comments and suggestions and Victor Gabor at the World
    Bank for providing real GDP data.
    ©2002, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis"
     
    #53     Jun 7, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  4. savoir

    savoir

     
    #54     Jun 15, 2022
  5. Everything is fake, scripted, across social media and life. I wouldn't be surprised if it was later revealed that story is fake...just to be catchy, funny and get free hype and marketing and publicity.

    Come on....charging 69 cents a gallon for gas?! You're telling me that is purely an accident and coincidental. Gas station owners and employees have the basic immature minds of 14 year olds.
     
    #55     Jun 15, 2022
  6. savoir

    savoir

    Relax. It’s not that serious.

    You’re posting like a nutjob. Everything is fake and scripted? Everything?! Jesus.
     
    #56     Jun 15, 2022
  7. xandman

    xandman

  8. VicBee

    VicBee

    #58     Jun 16, 2022