>> Position Update << Turned the position to -4, as continued EURUSD short time frame weakness and FDAX orderbook flow signals more possible profit taking, hard to describe what i'm looking for... but mostly an indication for this is, when the book seemingly looks strong (ie. block buy orders and some ask wipe outs), but price still tends lower, or stays flat... this signals to me strong sell interest, who doesn't want to show and move market too much. Sold 6 at 6900 (= current price) New Position: -4 FDAX
>> Position Update << Bought back 2 FDAX at 6890. This is a hard one, as down momentum is just not picking up, but neither any upmomentum... Put a stop in Place for the remainder at 6900. Target: <6875
>> Close << Closed all FDAX shorts and did some scalping, slow market and no sign of building down pressure... vulnerable to random moves (maybe news related), as volumes low and everyone in waiting position. Not the market I want to be in with big size. Profit/Loss after Commission: + 1554.5 EUR = +2051 US$ ________________ New Balance: 508'425 (+8'425) Open Positions: None
>> Trade Open << Short Dax 6952.50, in expectation of some profit taking after stop frenzy after hours, which pushed the future shortly back to days high of 6960. A divergence has build with EURUSD, as EURUSD tends lower afterhours, and even had a short 20pip sell off. While it's not sure some more will exit and not hold overnight, R/R seems in favor of a short trade here, with target <6950. In case we don't get those prices before Close in 1h20min, position needs to be evaluated, maybe considering a hedge through ES or SPI. however in that case there is a 2 hour timeframe of full exposure without the possibility to react. So part of the Position will definitely be closed before close. And if some is kept overnight it will be hedged with a highly correlated index (greece decision looming - however not expected before midnight GMT). EDIT: volume is very low, at 6952 is a hidden block sitting right now. EDIT: some buyers showing up, reducing the position right now
Actually i'm changing my opinion based on the order flow... it seems to me as if i may not be the only one with the trading idea above, and thus there might be more who want to close some shorts into day close rather than taking profits... Still reducing, almost flat (-5 remaining), and might even turn to some longs with tigth stop. Edit: as things look now, no longs will be taken. there are better trades out there...
>> Close << All shorts closed. flat now. PnL after Comm.: -293 EUR = -388 US$ (buy/sells all at almost 6952.50, max risk ~10k) Very reasonable trade, small loss, scenario didnt work out so far, and order flow doesn't point to profit taking. ___ New Balance: 508'037 (+8'037) Open Positions: None
current behaviour is a recipe for a short rally into close... seems like some guys really need to go out before close... 15 min to go. Wouldn't be a surprise to see close at day high EDIT: Got to day high and some selling at the very end. no more trades done
>> New Position << US futures weak after open... short SPI, as divergence building, and expecting SPI to catch up. short 10 SPI 4241 Edit: closed part at 4237-4234 Edit: 4 remaining, limit 31, 29, 26, 23. stop 4240
>> Trade closes<< It wasn't that big a divergence, one could have traded the move also in ES, due to profit taking with a greek decision still pending. Unfortunately my stop @ 4240 got hit. PnL after Comm: SPI: +1487.8 AU$ = +1596 US$ (max position 12: max risk: 3000 AU$) (Note: numbers are from the beginning of the week, including yesterdays trades - in my time zone, the trading period spans overnight) _____ New Balance: 509'633 (+9'633) Open Positions: None Edit: 4240 was right the pullback high. and it was hit on a big order whipping out the order book. Usually i don't transmit stop orders, more like having the order ready and hitting time and price dependant if trade doesn't work out. But right now, with pending big news, it's more reasonable to have a stop in place imho. Note: Pretty often it makes sense to buy such a dip after futures market open post us holiday (as with european markets openning more often than not, futures returned to the previous day european close levels) However i would not do it at the moment, given the overall situation (hard to describe all the factors, it's more or less instinct, one factor is the movement in currencies)