I agree with every word you say. Dan Zanger gave it back. And now he is selling a newsletter. Not what I would consider a super trader. That's what I meant with my comment earlier regarding edge & luck.
Ever played poker? Then you know what a good (or bad) run is... ;-) Why wasn't he able to repeat that performance a third and fourth time if it wasn't luck? He had (or has... I don't know) a method that worked perfectly during that 18 months period (you can even say he had a massive edge for that time period). But he got lucky that the market "cooperated" with his method during that period. That's luck too, imo.
What makes a Great Trader? Interview to Jack D. Schwager 1) Niche 2) Methodology 3) Edge 4) Risk Management 5) Flexibility
Poker is a bad analogy. The runs he had are independent event events unlike poker. Look, here is the guy's story. He started trading in the late 1970's, he was already in his late 20's or early 30's. He traded for over two decades before he made his first run in the late 1990's during the tech boom. Now even I would agree, even with his experience, that market period produced a LOT of lucky winners. However, the internet bubble popped. He did give a lot back. However, his 2nd run came years later during the WORST equity trading market ever (2003 to 2007). Any of us who traded back then knew who how grueling that market was as the VIX approached 8.91. He took 2 to 3 million and ran that to 45 million over a few years. Again, these are independent events, there is no "hot hand". Why doesn't he keep trading now you ask? The dude is in his 60's!!!! The guy has been at this for over 4 decades. He is sitting on millions. Let the guy enjoy what is left of his life. How many guys do you know in their 60's or 70's that are sitting behind a computer daytrading this market? Come on, be serious. I know very few guys who have even put in more then 10 years before burnout takes hold and these are the successful guys I know. His career is over. He put in 40 years, he had two huge runs and a successful newsletter that by my estimations generated a cool one to two mil a year. Let the guy sip a pina colada on the beach and enjoy himself.
Okay, you don't play poker... ;-) Each hand you play is independent of the previous hand you've played.
Yeah but it's the same players. Same table. A guy can get hot running through the table. This is NOT the same thing. Move along...
And you're welcome... http://gambling-maths.co.uk/independent-and-dependent-events/ "The mathematics of poker largely involve dependent events, since the number of cards from which to draw decreases every time a card is dealt, meaning that the probability of drawing a certain card from the deck increases for each time that that card is not dealt." I love ET.
Like I said, you don't play poker. The article describes the math of ONE HAND you are playing. After that hand the cards are shuffled and new hands are dealt. I hope you do your homework better in your trading...
Dude, are you still here? LOL. You got schooled. Move on. Unless you are prepared explain to me how a man's 40 year career in trading is similar to your poker game.Which of course you can't so please tell me more about poker....you've already lost the Zanger argument. Double down dude, I dare ya.