Jack Hershey's Methodologies (SCT & PVT)-Good Bad or Ugly

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by sappjason, Feb 28, 2010.

Do Jack Hershey's Methodologies warrant serious study?

  1. Fantastic-Jack's methodologies warrant the full attention of all traders (both new and professionals

    26 vote(s)
    10.9%
  2. Good-Jack's methodologies are good and should be studied to enhance trader profitability.

    10 vote(s)
    4.2%
  3. Average-Jack's methodolgies are really no better or worse than any other methodology.

    13 vote(s)
    5.5%
  4. Poor-Jack's methodologies are poor (or inferior) and really do not provide the means for a trader to

    18 vote(s)
    7.6%
  5. Horrible-Jack's methodologies are potentially damaging and a waste of time and money to even conside

    171 vote(s)
    71.8%
  1. The sentence was in a paragraph that gave a context for this sentence. On a previous lap in your quest, you were at the point of asking questions and explaining where you were in your software (its performance, etc.) instead of doing polls and instead of doing research.

    You got in touch with the provider group as you asked questions. A SOP came up and you opted out.
     
    #31     Mar 2, 2010
  2. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    Don't worry you're not alone.

    Say hello to the Hershey Highway "method".
     
    #32     Mar 2, 2010
  3. ramora

    ramora

    Jack,

    In a recent post you suggested that the way volume is charted on the typical software application could be improved.

    How could you draw a better representation of volume?

    Have you seen any graphic representation of volume that you liked?

    Thank you for your postings.
     
    #33     Mar 3, 2010
  4. Jack,
    I've been mulling our discussion over for the past day or so. Hence my delay in posting.....

    I must admit that I'm a little disappointed that I failed the negotiations with Todd. Not too disappointed though. Well.... Come to think of it. Actually a little glad....

    Anyway, you mentioned in one of your earlier posts to me that my vocabulary had a set of "tells" (specifically referring to trust). Well, as you full-well know, your vocabulary also has it's own set of "tells". In fact, your reference to "tells" reminds me of something a good friend of mine once said: "You can't help but tell your own story". How true that is, isn't it...... In all that you say and all that you do, you are endlessly and unknowingly telling your own story to those around you....

    This brings me back to you. A 77 year old man (I think that's your age) that shares his extensive knowledge about the financial markets, all in an effort to "pay it forward". How did you put it? Here it is: "I treated anyone who wanted what I knew as a person who could extend helping others as far and wide as possible. All they had to do was pass it forward and solve local problems with their available time and money." Very generous and selfless of you.... Seems like (on one side of the fence), you really have a heart for the human condition. You want to reach out and help those in need. But, then again, in post after post after post, I see you calling people "turds" and "fuck-offs" and "idiots". Such strange/disjointed behavior from such a well-intentioned, upstanding man (a boy-scout of all things). Ah yes.... A boy scout. That brings me to some of the other words that you mentioned: Trust, Respect and Integrity.

    I'm assuming when you mention the word trust and when you say that you "trust anyone you meet", that you mean, well, "anyone"..... Right? But then, why would you continue to try and shroud yourself in such mystique. Such secrecy... Is it possibly because you dis-"trust" others? No. That couldn't be it. You said you trust anyone you meet. So, how can those two things be reconciled? Beats me... I know. I know. I know. It's just a protective measure by you guys (you and Todd---I mean), so that you can fend off those crazies. I realize that you must be a wildly popular man. Especially, when it comes to refusing offers over the $10 BILLION mark (you did say 11 digits in a previous message didn't you---that's $XX,XXX,XXX,XXX).

    Then again, your offer (or offers) may have been even higher. I'm just guessing though.... Perhaps even greater than $20 BILLION or $30 BILLION. Who knows. Maybe even higher than $50 BILLION. Whatever it was, I'm glad you had the "integrity" to refuse (I just mentioned that word didn't I) and continue to help us here on ET (and in Tucson at your IBD meetings). I "respect" that Jack. I really do.....

    Oh yeah.... Just for your notes (or perhaps for next time), there was an article in a somewhat recent issue (3/2009) of the WSJ (I know, not your preferred paper) where Jim Simons happened to be the highest paid hedge fund manager in history ($2.5 billion). I know your offer paled in comparison to his compensation, but perhaps if you continue on in obscurity, you can get another offer in the $100 BILLION dollar mark. You could use 12 digits in a sentence then. But, then again, we both know that you could already use 12 digits in a sentence, despite an offer. It doesn't really matter does it. Hey. Come to think of it.... Perhaps you and Todd know Jim. If so, please tell him about my ATS. He may be interested... Actually, if you happen to see one of Jim's posts here on ET, please tell me, because perhaps I could introduce him to my ATS myself. Hell, if YOU post 1.62 times per day here on ET, then I'm assuming good 'ole Jim is posting here too.... BTW, you can check the article out here: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/03/...lds-top-2008-earner-james-simons/tab/article/

    You know, after thinking about your offers (probably way too numerous to mention), I started doing a little math. You have stated in various places that it's rather easy to make 3 ATR (sometimes much more) on the ES, when you so desire. Now, we both know that a tick on the ES is worth $12.50 per tick (or $50 per point). Also, at current standing the ATR of the ES ranges anywhere from 10 to 22, so let's just split it down the middle and put the average ATR at around 15. Lastly, because you mention that your SCT methodology states that it's capacity is only 20 contracts, I'm going to assume you typically trade with that number. I'm sure this 20 contract liquidity limit probably upsets you a bit, because I'm sure you could trade with much, much more. Oh yeah, that's right. You have.... I'm remembering that 31 part partial fill order. Anyway, I digress. Now, try to follow me here Jack. 3 X 15atr = 45 pts. 45 pts * 20 contracts = 900 pts. 900 pts * $50 = $45,000 per day. Now, that's not too shabby and I'm sure it's on the low side, because we both know that you make much, much more than that. But, once again, I digress.

    So, with $45K per day and about 200 trading days per year, that could easily put you at $9 million per year. But, then again, I'm forgetting about compounding (and as Todd says), living expenses (which is a little laughable to me, given the house you both live in) and taxes. Oh yeah, of course, you guys wouldn't be working every day. Let's remember that you need ample time to be able to post (on average) 2 times per day on ET, help people come up with viable fuel alternatives, make drinking water clean, help older people manage their money (based on Modigliani's life cycle hypothesis), etc, etc, etc... I'm sure the list of charitable organizations, business affiliates and directorate positions is endless.

    Now, with all of that said, I'll put you at a 100 day (per year) trader. So, now we're back down to only $4.5 million per year. I really hated to chop your income in half like that, but you gotta do what-cha gotta do.... Now, being that you've been at this for 50 years (now a little more), this kind of money would have multiplied many, many times over (and of course, we have to consider that you weren't always a 3 ATR trader---then again, now you are probably a 6 ATR trader). Who knows (only you and Todd-I assume). Anyway, my point is that you must be worth way north of a BILLION at this point. Hell, Jack. If you only would have taken that $XX,XXX,XXX.XX offer, you would have very quickly made it to the Forbes World's Billionaires list (you can check it out here: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/10...hest-people_The-Worlds-Billionaires_Rank.html). But, alas, I don't see you there. Not even at position 468, where the earner is only a paltry $1.5 BILLION. You really need to call Forbes up and get them to correct this mistake.

    Anyway, Jack. I think you get my point. Let's both say those words together again (kind-a in a Kumbaya fashion). Trust! Integrity! Respect!

    Tell ya what. I'm going to go get a nice big glass of ice water and while drinking it, I'll be thinking of you Jack. Thanking you.


    Jason
     
    #34     Mar 4, 2010
  5. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    typical linear thinking.
     
    #35     Mar 4, 2010
  6. Can you elaborate on that?

    Jason

     
    #36     Mar 4, 2010
  7. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    sure , if you have a checking account and you know with 100% percent that you can withdraw your money at any time you want, would you line up at the AMT machine every day to withdraw your money?
     
    #37     Mar 4, 2010
  8. #1) I think you meant "ATM". Not "AMT". #2) Checking accounts have "your money" in them (as you stated). Therefore, why would I line up every day to withdraw "my money"?

    Try again. You aren't speaking clearly. I know what you mean, but I want you to say it in clear English. For everyone to see..........

    Jason


     
    #38     Mar 4, 2010
  9. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    yes.


    my point, exactly.
     
    #39     Mar 4, 2010
  10. Oh boy oh boy oh boy....... I'm sorry nk.. I really am...... PM me, if you'd like help getting yourself out of their clutches..... I'll give you some more scoop.....


     
    #40     Mar 4, 2010